Cabinet split over Australian trade deal

A battle royal is in progress in Cabinet on whether Britain should agree a tariff free trade deal with Australia.  Brexiteers think that if a trade deal cannot be concluded with Australia no deals will be possible for the new 'Global Britain'.

However, farmers - already reeling from the phasing out of support payments - are concerned that it could hit their markets and be a precedent for future deals, particularly those with the US and New Zealand.

On one side of the argument is international trade secretary Liz Truss, a popular figure among Conservative activists.   On the other side is Defra secretary of state George Eustice, backed up by Michael Gove.   Gove is concerned that rural areas in Wales and Scotland would be hard hit, further undermining the union.   Reports are suggesting that Boris Johnson may come down in favour of the deal.

Beef and sheep meat would be the main commodities affected, although Australia is also interested in exporting more cheese.   There is a 20 per cent tariff on beef at present which would be phased out over 15 years.   

Will Labour back PR?

Britain in a Changing Europe held an interesting webinar yesterday on the recent elections with contributions by Sir John Curtice, Rob Ford, Spectator political editor James Forsyth, and Paula Surridge.

One topic that came up was whether Labour would move to advocating PR.  Labour was characterised as too weak to win, but too strong to fail like other European social democratic parties.  

It was thought that Labour could not win an overall majority, given Scotland, but could form a minority government with Scottish Nationalist, Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat, SDLP, Alliance and Green tacit support.

No one would enter into a coalition with the current Conservatives and even the Democratic Unionists were unlikely to countenance a new confidence and supply agreement.

Labour was likely to pile up big majorities in metropolitan areas which were of little use in overall terms.  PR might therefore seem attractive, although the attitude of the trade unions would be crucial.  In the longer term, PR could damage Labour as left leaning voters would feel more able to support the Greens than in the binary politics produced by first past the post.

As always, much depends on the form of PR adopted.   

The end of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act

A review of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act and my thoughts on its replacement: https://warwick.ac.uk/newsandevents/knowledgecentre/society/politics/fixed_term_parliament_act

Leadership election in Northern Ireland

 An authoritative guide to the DUP election by Northern Ireland politics expert Jonathan Tonge: https://theconversation.com/dup-leadership-election-qanda-all-you-need-to-know-as-edwin-poots-and-jeffrey-donaldson-160670

With such an exclusive election there could even be a tie, but there is no procedure to deal with that.

Thoughts on lobbying

A short summary on some of my reflections on lobbying, having studied interest groups for some fifty years: http://www.culmerraphael.eu/news/lobbying-uk/

First thoughts on election results

Some are saying on Twitter that it is a surprise that voters opted for 'change' in Hartlepool in the form of a Conservative candidate given that the Conservatives have been in office since 2010.

However, I do not think that voters perceive the Johnson Government as another Conservative Government, but as a clear break with the past with a very distinctive leader.

One thing I think is clear that Labour's attempt to create a 'Tory sleaze' narrative has not cut through with the electorate.   There are a number of reasons for this.  First, it is remote from the immediate concerns of voters.  Second, Boris Johnson being a bit of a rogue is already priced in with many voters.  Third, many voters think that all the parties are as bad as one another when it comes to being on the make.

And some voters think the prime minister is entitled to decent curtains.   There is an argument for saying that the prime minister is now underpaid given his responsibilities or at least is entitled to more expenses.