Two cheers for an Established Church

On Christmas Day morning I will attend Holy Communion at All Saints Parish Church in Leamington Spa where I happen to be chair of the Friends of the Parish Church. The Friends are not confined to members of the congregation and are trying to raise money to restore the deteriorating fabric and also see the space used more as a community asset. I am a baptised but not a communicant member of the Church of England and therefore cannot take communion. So as far as I am concerned I am taking advantage of my rights as a citizen to attend services.

In some ways it is frustrating to attend a communion service and not participate fully. I was even offered a fast track to confirmation, but made it clear that I did not feel I was anywhere near a state of grace. Confirmation would involve me stating things about which I have serious doubts, just as I cannot accept everything in the Nicene Creed.

Conventional reformist wisdom is that the established status of the Church of England is an anachronism, indeed many Anglicans would hold to that view. In a diverse country, why should one version of one religion be privileged above all others, including representation in the House of Lords? It is an argument whose strength I acknowledge. If and when Brian becomes king, he has made it clear that he will see himself as defender of the faiths in the plural.

One of the strengths of establishment was that it provided a bulwark of a middle road form of Anglicanism which discouraged cults and sects, but in many ways the Church of England is already highly factionalised. Disestablishment would be the final blow to an institution with declining and ageing congregations (other than various manifestations of the evangelical wing). Some argue that it would not be missed: one should take faith seriously or reject it, but not take it lightly.

Other countries have an established church (or churches) that benefit from state taxes (there are also countries such as Germany which do not have an established church but have church taxes). In Finland almost all of the money goes to the Lutheran church. A friend of mine wanted to disconnect himself and found it a difficult procedure that encountered puzzlement as to why any Finn should wish to take this step.

For me the greatest value of the Church of England was attending one of its primary schools, although this involvement is also controversial. The school I attended served what was then a predominantly white working class area. It now serves a diverse area with an increasing number of pupils for whom English is an additional language. It still making a contribution to the local community, respecting other faiths whilst proclaiming Christian values: St. Margaret's Church of England school

I find the different tendencies within the CoE quite difficult to classify, but I would say that the school I attended and the adjacent now demolished church was at least English Catholic. As a consequence, I had to wrestle with some heavy duty theology from the age of seven onwards which played an important contribution to my intellectual development. I had to wrestle with puzzles I could not understand, let alone solve. For example, I have discussed the doctrine of transubstantiation with Roman Catholic friends and Anglicans, but I am still left baffled by it.

We had excellent teachers (one was a published author of books for children), but they came from relatively middle class backgrounds. Hence, the advice that we could attend Catholic mass if we went to France was somewhat irrelevant. A day trip to Boulonge would be just about affordable.

All this left me mystified about the difference between Anglo and Roman Catholicism. Somewhat irreverently, I asked if the problem would be solved if the Pope was English and the Vatican moved to Canterbury, an observation for which I was expelled from the class.

The ethical principles of Christianity as expressed particularly in the New Testament were ones I was generally in agreement with, although I had difficulties with Saint Paul. I welcome women clergy and a church that seeks to be inclusive of a range of sexual identities.

Some would say that Anglicanism is all about doubt. I can just about adhere to it as an Established Church which I attend as a citizen, but the link is tenuous.

How constituencies change over time

I had the following letter published in the Financial Times the other day: 'One of the aspects of the recent election that has not been discussed much is the changing demography in some constituencies. Jim Pickard (“Thornberry fires starting gun in race for Labour leadership”, December 19) refers to the transformation of Nuneaton from a marginal seat to one with large Conservative majorities.'

In recent years large numbers of new houses have been built in Nuneaton, relatively reasonably priced by Warwickshire standards. Given the existence of “good” train services, the town has attracted commuters to Birmingham, and even to London, so there has been quite a big change in the make-up of the town, which in turn affects voting patterns.'

One Nuneaton resident emailed me to say: 'I remember the same happening when Shirley Williams lost her Hertford and Stevenage seat in 1979. The electrification of the Hertford line changed things beyond recognition as new folks moved in.' The other thing happening in Nuneaton is that there are lots of new jobs but, of course, in logistics and the “traditional” industries (coal, quarrying, textiles) are long gone.'

Another example would be my own constituency of Warwick and Leamington which has shifted from safe Conservative to marginal Labour hold in 2019.

I don't know Blythe Valley or Bishop Auckland, but I did hear comment that there had been an inward migration of commuters to buy relatively affordable housing.

The 'Workington Man' stereotype attracted some criticism because it was seen as a media shortcut which conceals as much as it reveals. Nevertheless, there was a particular group of voters in northern England who shifted to the Conservatives: Realignment

It is very likely that constituencies will be redistricted before the next election, although it is not clear whether the number of MPs will be reduced from 650 to 600 as David Cameron originally proposed. One calculation is that the new boundaries would have given the Conservatives a majority of just over 100.

Will we see the Cap of Maintenance today?

Given that there is a scaled down Queen's speech today in terms of ceremonial I wonder whether we will see the Cap of Maintenance. It was such a long time to the last speech that I feared the moths might have got at it, but it was held aloft with due reverence.

I have never really understood Catholic symbolism in a country that has a nominally Protestant Established Church; it was given to Henry the Eighth by the Pope for his efforts in maintaining the Catholic religion before his breach with Rome. Henry did, however, remain very much a Catholic in his religious observance.

I suppose that reflects some of the contradictions in the Church of England which I struggle with as an Erastian, i.e., a believer in an established church. I realise that position is now under attack even within the CoE. It does mean that I have a right to the services of the Church as a citizen without being a communicant member.

Having been 'head hunted' to be the chair of the Friends of the local Parish Church, my position becomes even more contradictory. The task of the Friends is to involve people who are not members of the congregation in helping to preserve its fabric: it was built with a very soft sandstone and is larger than some cathedrals.

It is also being used more for community events, so we screened the Life of Brian, which caused a bit of a media storm, and hosted the opening concert of Fairport Convention's summer tour.

I feel some obligation to attend services on major feast days, but they are usually Mass or Holy Communion (sometimes one gets choked with incense, other times there is none) which makes it all a bit pointless for me.

10.58: I have just seen the Cap of Maintenance leaving Buckingham Palace, in its own (horseless) vehicle.

11.02: Correction, it is sharing a vehicle with the sword of state, the crown has its own vehicle.

End of the union?

In 1968 I published my first (co-authored) article in a respectable academic journal on Welsh and Scottish Nationalism. The article was derided by some colleagues, but I thought it was quite good for a third year undergraduate. I thought that the two emergent nationalisms need to be treated comparatively. I argued that Welsh nationalism had more of a cultural basis. Indeed, the four PC seats at Westminster are all adjacent to one another in traditional Welsh speaking areas. Gwn fod gan y blaid gefnogaeth mewn mannau eraill a'i bod yn ceisio adeiladu ei sylfaen drefol.

A subsequent and better received article was based on an analysis of SNP councillors in the two new towns of East Kilbride and Cumbernauld, one of the most fascinating pieces of work I have ever done and which gave me many anecdotes.

One of the potential longer term consequences of the general election is the possible break up of the United Kingdom. In the case of Northern Ireland, Nationalists now outnumber Unionists among MPs. Given that Sinn Fein saw their vote fall and the Democratic Unionists lost seats there may now be some impetus to get the power sharing arrangement working again so that urgent problems like the state of the health service can be tackled. Let no one say that a country can manage perfectly well without a functioning government.

Neither the UK nor Irish governments have any appetite for a border poll. However, in the longer run could we see a confederal arrangement on the island of Ireland, outside the UK, but with a devolved assembly at Stormont?

In this article, I am not going to deal with Wales, not because I think it is unimportant but because the future there is far less clear. There doesn't seem to be a real appetite for independence. Beth yw'r dyfodol i Gymru? Dydw I ddim yn gwybod.

Scotland

I have a sentimental attachment to Scotland. In 1793 my direct ancestor James Grant left his birthplace of Urquhart on the shores of Loch Ness and his father Donald Bain Grant to join the British Army. He fought at Waterloo and showed dangerous Europhile tendencies by marrying a French woman. In 1970 I was proud to graduate from a Scottish university. I regard myself as British rather than English, particularly given that my mother's family came from Cornwall.

Sentiment aside, disentangling the over 300 year relationship between England and Scotland would make Brexit seem a doddle. If an independent Scotland subsequently joined the EU, what would this mean for the Anglo-Scottish border?

When I was in Edinburgh last year my taxi driver described Nicola Sturgeon as 'a very dangerous woman'. I think he was right. I don't like her or what she stands for, but I respect her effectiveness in the pursuit of her beliefs.

To me it is evident that momentum is building for independence in Scotland. Young people in particular are more inclined to support it. Indy Ref2 could be very close - I would find it odd if independence was won by a handful of votes. My guess is that it might be like the second Quebec referendum, close but no cigar.

Even so, the dilemma is whether to have one at all. I do not think this is just a matter for the people of Scotland. It affects England as well. 'Engerland' on its own could well become inward looking and xenophobic. In the past Scottish leaders have played an important role in offering leadership to the UK.

I think at the very least it is reasonable to say that any referendum should not be held until after the Holyrood elections in May 2021. The UK Government can reasonably argue that its focus this year, and quite possibly for some of 2021, has to be on negotiating a trade and security agreement with the EU.

Boris Johnson is clearly minded not to allow a referendum at all. That might simply build support for the Nationalist cause. There is talk of the Scottish Government holding its own referendum. This would be challenged by the UK Government in the courts and they might well win. If such a referendum was held, unionists would be well advised to abstain to deny its legitimacy.

I think there is a better than evens chance of Scotland becoming independent and 'walking tall among the nations' a decade from now. If Scotland re-joined the EU, it would be obliged to join the euro and we would then have the inconvenience of changing money at the border even if there was a common travel zone. (As it is, although Scottish notes are legal tender south of the border, many retailers won't accept them).

I know that some English voters think that we would save money given that Scotland has a substantial fiscal deficit funded from the south. The SNP would argue that the country's oil has been stolen. This is a controversial issue and would be one of the most difficult subjects in independence negotiations.

I don't think Orkney and Shetland would be too keen on an independent Scotland. In Orkney the local flag (an adaptation of the Norwegian one) is displayed when ministers make the trek from Edinburgh.

A YouGov poll earlier this year found that Conservative activists were prepared to see the dissolution of the union as a price for obtaining Brexit. It seems a high price to pay to me.

Why did Labour hold Warwick and Leamington?

On a bad night for Labour, they managed to see off a Conservative challenge in the highly marginal constituency of Warwick and Leamington with a swing against them of just 0.79 per cent. How can this be explained?

I have lived in Leamington for forty-five years. I have seen Conservative and Labour MPs come and go: first Sir Dudley Smith (there had been a Conservative MP since 1910) defeated in the Labour landslide of 1997 by James Plaskitt, who in turn was defeated by Chris White in 2010 (he had been narrowly defeated in 2005). Then in 2017 Chris White was replaced on an above average swing by Matt Western, a county councillor.

Western's victory came as something of a surprise to him, so I am told. Another reliable source told me that last weekend he thought he was toast. He has been a hard working and effective constituency MP, but so was his predecessor, Chris White. Personal votes are not normally that large and the term at Warwick University had ended the preceding week, denting the student vote. Nevertheless, turnout at over 70 per cent was above the national average.

The Economist interviewed me over lunch and showed me their constituency poll which showed Conservative Jack Rankin one point ahead which, given the sample size, was well within the range of sampling error. The one quote they used from me was about the Countess of Warwick standing against Sir Anthony Eden as the Labour candidate in 1923 and campaigning from her chauffeur driven Rolls Royce.

I have not been able to find out the age of the Conservative candidate, Jack Rankin, anywhere but apparently he was the most youthful member of Windsor District Council. On his literature, the Warwick masters graduate and commodities trader looked very young indeed. Whether this influenced any voters one way or another is a matter of speculation.

One knowledgeable person observed to me, 'No mention of Corbyn in his literature and very little indication that he was actually Labour just the incumbent running for re-election. But then my one time student Vernon Coaker followed a similar strategy in Gedling. It has helped him hold the seat against the odds in the past, but this time he lost, albeit on a smaller than average swing for the East Midlands.

Given the sort of seat it is, one might expect the Liberal Democrats to do better, particularly given that they have quite a strong local government presence. They generally finish a poor third, but increased their share of the vote this time.

Warwick and Leamington was a Remain constituency, as far as I can recall the only one in the West Midlands. I suspect that the Midlands political correspondent, Patrick Burns, was one to something when he said at the last election was that it was like a North London seat, set in the middle of Warwickshire. Indeed, some of it looks like North London.

The Conservatives West Midlands website said that winning the seat back was a must if they were to have a majority in the Commons. With the Red Wall crumbling, they easily obtained a big majority anyway.

Calamity Jo

After high hopes, the general election was a disaster for the Liberal Democrats, ending up with fewer seats than they had won before, even leaving aside the defectors who did not fare well. The defeat of Jo Swinson turned out to be the only really successful example of decapitation which was seen as possible for some leading Conservatives. Of course, any party that does not have a regional base like the SNP is vulnerable to a squeeze by the two main parties under a first past the post system. The Lib Dems tend to do better when Labour does well.

Arguably the first mistake, along with Labour, was to back the election, although they were under a lot of pressure to do so. However, they did have Boris Johnson in a vice like grip.

What was certainly a mistake was to pledge to revoke Article 50. Even for hard core remainers, this was often a step too far. It could be presented as anti-democratic and you can't just act as if the referendum never happened. A second referendum was contentious enough, but it would have been more plausible. As it was, it ended the Liberal Democrats' hopes in leave areas such as their former stronghold in the south-west. It did appeal in London and the south-east, but not enough, as exemplified by the narrow defeat at Wimbledon.

Jo Swinson clearly thinks that she was a victim of sexism, saying that when you break the glass ceiling you risk getting hit by fragments of glass. Clearly, there is something in this: the clothes worn by men are the subject of far less scrutiny, and apparently some people objected to her earrings.

She was increasingly vulnerable to attacks for her role as a minister in the Coalition Government. She did apologise for some decisions, but that didn't really resolve the problem. In all fairness, being a minority party in a coalition usually ends badly and the Lib Dems did moderate Conservative policies.

Even before she became leader, she had tendency to talk down to voters as if they were ill informed. They may be, but they shouldn't be patronised. As the campaign progressed, she switched more into head teacher or head girl mode, exasperated at the failure of her arguments to hit home.

Even so, Nicola Sturgeon's triumphalism at Swinson's defeat was not a pleasant moment on election night. You don't kick someone when they are down. Sturgeon tried to row back in subsequent interviews, but her efforts looked insincere.

Whither the Liberal Democrats

The Lib Dems need to find a new leader. They don't have a lot of options. Sir Ed Davey has wanted the job for a long time. He would be a safe if dull pair of hands in bad need of a charisma transplant. Also, he was a coalition minister so is vulnerable in the same way as Swinson. Private Eye has him as one of their targets.

Layla Moran is probably more likely to succeed and represents a more modern, diverse face. But how would she go down in the west country?

A wild card is 'Daisy, Daisy, give me an answer do.' The new MP for St. Albans, Daisy Cooper, is highly regarded, but she would be unlikely to stand and even more unlikely to win. Some tough times lie ahead, but they have bounced back before and have a base in local government.

Scilly mistake

The BBC announced last night that the St.Ives result would be delayed (it still is) because rough weather was stopping the collection of the ballot box from the island of Samson. It has been uninhabited since the 19th century. Wags are saying that they will look for the polling station on their next holiday.

This morning Radio 5 referred to 'nearby islands'. They are some 25 miles off Land's End.

Harold Wilson once held a press conference on Samson when he was prime minister.

Getting a new Parliament up and running

A useful guide from the Constitution Unit written by two former Clerks of the House: What happens after the election

A possible surprise in East Devon?

The Conservatives look as if they might be heading for a 40+ overall majority, but there could be a surprise in East Devon where a local informant tells me there is a 60/40 chance of the independent winning.

Interesting article on the constituency in the New Statesman: Rural revolt

The marginal constituency of St. Ives includes the Isles of Scilly. From the island with the smallest population, St. Agnes (which once recorded a 100 per cent turnout im a local election), the ballot box is taken to St Mary’s on @stagnesboating after polling closes at 10 pm. So it will be interesting to see what happens this week with wind and sea forecast as it is and it being dark.

What does Wrexham poll show?

Wrexham has been held by Labour since 1935. Yet a constituency poll by The Economist shows Labour down 20 points and the Conservatives 15 per cent ahead. If this is typical of 'red wall' seats, then the consequences for Labour could be devastating. It could be an outlier, but there are some indications from elsewhere to suggest that it is not.

If the sample size was similar to that for Warwick and Leamington it would be about 500, so some caution is necessary, but it doesn't explain away such a large lead.

The final straight

I was at a dinner in London last night at which a considerable number of what might be described as political enthusiasts were present and a poll round the table produced a remarkable consensus. The overwhelming majority forecast a Conservative overall majority of between 31 and 39. Of course, that may simply suggest that we were all wrong.

One well-known journalist suggested that a big Conservative majority would be better as a small majority would give the European Research Group more leverage. Maybe, but the Conservative remainers have largely gone and all Conservative candidates have had to pledge that they will back Brexit, whatever the consequences.

Sir John Curtice said recently that the election will be less geographically complicated than anticipated, although I think there could still be one or two unanticipated results. Three things seem reasonably clear:

• Labour is under pressure in its so-called 'red wall', including the ailing 'Beast of Bolsover', although some Labour voters might return to their traditional allegiances at the last minute.
• The Liberal Democrats are not going to win as many seats as anticipated, probably none in the south-west and I suspect that all the defectors will fail, so they may well have fewer than 21 seats, although more than 12. Jo Swinson did quite well in her Andrew Neil interview, but shouldn't start so many sentences with 'Look' which gives her a hectoring tone.
• The Conservatives will hold on to quite a few seats in Scotland, although Labour looks like being almost wiped out.

I doubt whether we will see a 'Portillo moment'. The likes of Dominic Raab and John Redwood will see their majorities badly dented, but will probably hang on.

They think it's all over

Election guru Philip Cowley comments: 'The last 17 opinion polls, by 10 different companies, all give the Conservatives a double digit lead. Of the nine companies to have polled at least twice, seven have the Conservative lead higher than in their first poll of the campaign.'

'The other polling is equally dire. Most recent poll in Scotland has Cons to lose just one seat, but polls in Wales and London have them to make gains. Most constituency polling not good for Labour either.'

'At this point, at almost any other election in the last 50 years, you'd conclude it was basically all over, and all that remained to be decided was the size of the majority. And maybe that's right this time too.'

'But if I was a Labour supporter, here's what I'd be clinging to':

• '1. The polls can still change. Plenty of things can happen in two and a bit weeks. Plus, if the Lib Dem vote continues to fall, that should benefit Labour, whereas the Cons probably have less scope for further squeezing the Brexit Party vote.'
• 2. 'The polls could be wrong. Even by the end of the campaign in 2017, Labour trailed by an average of eight points in the polls. But the polls under-estimated Labour's vote by five percentage points. It could happen again.'
• '3. 'The Brexit Party haven't gone away. The national polls have them polling c.3%. But they're only standing in <50% of all seats. In the seats the Cons need to take, and where the Brexit Party is standing, they must be polling c.6%, and Cons prob doing less well.'
• 4. Still a decent number of DKs in the polls. We didn't use to care too much about Don't Knows, because when they made up their minds, they used to break pretty much like those who had already decided. That didn't happen in 2017, with ‘Don’t Knows’ going disproportionately Labour'.
• 5. Labour can win without winning. They don't need a majority, just to stop the Conservatives from getting one. The Curtice line about Labour having no chance of winning a majority has been widely misunderstood; he wasn't saying there was no chance of a Labour government.'

Cowley concludes, 'All of these are far from certain. If polls aren't moving in Labour's direction so far, why will they start now? Undecided voters falling in number week by week. It wouldn't take much for things to look a little bit more competitive, although time is running out for Labour.'

For what it's worth, my view is that Labour's ambiguous Brexit stance damages them, particularly when compared with the clear Conservative line. Jeremy Corbyn is unpopular with many traditional Labour voters. Labour's spending plans lack credibility, particularly with the addition of a large unfunded sum for the admittedly badly treated 'Wasp' women. At a guess, a Conservative majority of 50 to 70.

Election thoughts

Interesting article on the attempts of Dominic Grieve and David Gauke to retain their seats as independents: Chilterns campaigns

I think that it will be hard for either of them to win, but Grieve has a better chance. It wasn't so long ago that the cry was 'Uncork the Gauke' when the Government ran into trouble.

Meanwhile the Conservative lead over Labour seems to be solidifying and points to an overall Conservative majority of at least over 50 and possibly a lot more. However, many voters are still undecided.

The Liberal Democrat poll ratings have been edging downwards and it seems that the more voters see of Jo Swinson, the less they like her. She does have a rather hectoring manner.

Remain alliance may have limited impact

The Remain alliance of three parties may have limited impact. Sir John Curtice estimates that it could affect the outcome in six seats. Of course, that could be significant in a tight contest.

There is some anecdotal evidence that voters do not like their choice being restricted so that, for example, they can no longer vote Green. It has also been pointed out that the election is about more than Brexit.

Good analysis here, pointing out that Labour is key to the Remain Alliance achieving its goal: Conservative seats under threat

Three figure majority for Conservatives?

Current polling figures suggest a 148 majority for the Conservatives over all other parties: Forecast

Some leading Labour names would lose their seats, e.g., Tom Watson. However, the figures don't really take account of personal votes for sitting MPs, admittedly not large, but they could count in tight contests.

Although a Conservative overall majority is a likely outcome, I doubt whether it would be in three figures.

Conservative Home takes a look at East Midlands seats: Election battlegrounds

Here comes Workington man

We all remember the fictitious median voter, Worcester Woman, that David Cameron was supposed to target. Actually, I think it started as a joke by election guru Robert Worcester, but the media honed in on this thirty something woman in Worcester with children and working part-time.

Well now it is the era of 'Workington man', at least according to a Tory think tank: Boris Johnson must target Workington man

He lives in a Rugby League town in the north of England and is a traditional Labour voter who backs leave. Apparently, he 'favours security over freedom across both social and economic axes, but leans much more towards security on social issues'. He distrusts globalisation and neo-liberal Thatcherism does not appeal to him. It has to be said that the historic Conservative record in these towns is poor, but old loyalties are disappearing.

Vox pops always interest me in elections. They are completely unscientific, but they are one way of trying to understand what voters are thinking. Vox pops on the television channels last night suggested that many voters think that Boris Johnson is someone who 'gets things done' and 'has bottle'.

All the poll evidence so far suggests that Boris Johnson has not suffered from failing to die in a ditch. Leave voters think that he tried his best and two-and-a-half times as many blame Jeremy Corbyn as they do the prime minister.

What Labour has to try to do is to switch the narrative away from Brexit to other austerity related issues where they might hope to be stronger, although the Conservatives will pledge extra spending. The problem is that voters take a very poor view of Jeremy Corbyn. Some women voters are not impressed by Boris Johnson and they may be open to appeals based on social justice issues.

I think that the Lib Dems are taking a bit of a risk with a very hard Remain line. Many people would think that revoking Article 50 on day one of a Liberal Democrat government without any further consultation is a bit strong. Of course, there won't be such a government, but that is their core message.

There has been a lot of emphasis on how much damage the Brexit Party could do the Conservatives, but they could attract more Labour voters in Leave seats that the Conservatives hope to win in the north and Midlands.

Experts on the election

Experienced Welsh politics commentator Roger Anwan-Scally has published a blog on the general election in Wales: The general election battlefield in Wales

None of the Labour seats in Wales is ultra marginal, but there are four feasible target seats. Their close fights are generally straight battles with the Conservatives.

Plaid Cymru will find it hard to gain seats and are vulnerable in two contests.

Writing from his Hong Kong fastness, Philip Cowley gives twelve reasons why this will be a difficult election to predict: Volatile electorate

Sir John Curtice thinks that parties other than the two main ones could have 100 or more seats which would increase the chances of a hung Parliament: Prediction

Election thoughts

I am not an elections expert and one is dealing with a volatile electorate facing four cornered contests in many seats, but here are a few reflections.

• A Labour working majority is the least likely outcome. Johnson is a better campaigner than May and Corbyn is less of a fresh face than in 2017. His somersaults on Brexit have disillusioned younger supporters.
• The Lib Dems may win fewer seats than they anticipate.
• What the Brexit Party is up to is a bit of a puzzle, they have been very quiet, but it seems that they are still hoping for an electoral pact with the Conservatives.
• The Democratic Unionists may have marginalised themselves.
• The Conservatives may hang on to a few seats in Scotland.
• Students have hardly been disenfranchised by the election date as they can register in two places. But the student vote will be more dispersed and hence less important.

The problems of polling the electorate

A very interesting report from the Polling Observatory which looks at recent trends in voting intentions: How to read the polling tea leaves

In particular there is a helpful discussion of 'house effects', i.e., the tendency of a polling company to report high or low figures for a particular party. However,if a pollster tends to show one of the parties doing better than the polling industry on average, it does not automatically mean their estimate for the other main party will be lower than the average.

Prompting for the Brexit Party and controlling for past vote appear currently to have significant impacts on poll numbers. In the former case, pollsters that prompt for the Brexit Party in their surveys tend, unsurprisingly, to report higher numbers for the party.

The use of past vote (i.e. how people voted in 2017) to weight samples to make them representative is a longstanding practice in the polling industry. However, this can introduce error through people misreporting their past vote, leading supporters of a party to be overrepresented in the poll.

They wisely conclude, ' There can be no way of knowing which pollster is right before election day, but it is worth urging some caution in how these sorts of numbers are interpreted by those in politics, media and the wider public.'

Impeachment a non-starter

I don't think the call by Westminster's Plaid Cymru leader Liz Saville Roberts to impeach Boris Johnson is going to go anywhere: Impeachment

Impeachment is when a peer or commoner is accused of ‘high crimes and misdemeanours, beyond the reach of the law or which no other authority in the state will prosecute.’ It is a procedure that is ‘directed in particular against Ministers of the Crown’. This arcane procedure has not been used since the 19th century and has never been used against a prime minister.

A House of Commons Library briefing paper on the subject can be found here: Impeachment

The Government says that it thinks it has a way of by-passing the Brexit extension law, but won't say what its cunning plan is. I suspect this means that it doesn't exist other than as more bluster.

How Parliament works

What we used to call a cut out 'n' keep guide to how Parliament works from the Institute for Government: Parliament

Also all you want to know from the same source about the Prime Minister's power to set the date of an election: Setting the date

The coming election

An excellent analysis by Philip Cowley which argues that it is more of a gamble than Boris Johnson realises: Is he such a good campaigner?

Life after high office

An excellent blog post which looks at what happens to politicians after they leave office. Theresa May is the central theme, but the net is cast much wider: Losing political office

As is pointed out, the psychological costs of political exit can be high, particularly if you have no 'hinterland'. I remember being at an event where Ted Heath was sulking in a corner and being rude. Dennis Healey read me his latest poem.

Of recent prime ministers, John Major has probably made the best adjustment, in part because he is seen as a fundamentally decent guy and not as bad a prime minister as he was seen to be at the time, surrounded by rampant Eurosceptics.

PMQs today showed what political exit can look like, both the PM and the front bench looked as if they were attending a wake in a morgue, which I suppose they were.

How the monarch could be dragged into politics

The Queen has sought to be scrupulously neutral in partisan political matters. However, given the continuing political crisis, and the possibility of a constitutional crisis over the suspension of Parliament, it may be increasingly difficult to keep her out of politics, although the Cabinet Secretary and her advisers at the Palace will make every effort to do so. Against this background, Bronwen Maddox of the Institute for Government has written a timely and informative blog post: The role of the monarch

The key point in the article for me was that a future King might behave differently and less restrained. There have been a number of indications that the Prince of Wales might be more activist if and when he succeeds to the throne.

How should one choose a prime minister?

This blog post from Tim Bale looks at the selectorate of Conservative Party activists that will choose the next prime minister. Unsurprisingly, they are neither demographically or ideologically representative of the population as a whole. Party activists have been called a zealocracy: Party members who will elect prime minister

This has attracted plenty of objections, but how one would do it differently? One argument is that it should be left to MPs who at least know the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates. But does this give too much power to a much criticised political class?

Some would argue that the selection of a new prime minister should lead to a general election. But that is to treat the UK as a presidential system which it isn't. Some would say it is in effect. However, following such a rule would undermine cabinet government even further.

Of course, there may well be a general election within the next year anyway, either from a position of strength or weakness for the new prime minister.

A crisis for both parties

A very interesting blog post by Deborah Mabbett on the threats facing the existing party system, suggesting that the large two party share of the vote in 2015 was an aberrant result, rather than an indication of a reversion to two party politics: A crisis for both parties

An interesting comment is made about how both parties have an interest in maintaining a two party duopoly, although whether they can achieve that is another question. It reminds me of the first research I did in the late 1960s on the insurgent Scottish National Party in the two new towns of Cumbernauld and East Kilbride.

What was evident was that both the traditional parties felt threatened and were prepared to cooperate to defend the conventional political spectrum.

How does Theresa May compare with other prime ministers?

My attempt to compare Theresa May with other less successful prime ministers over the last hundred years: Disastrous prime ministers

Brexit damage to social fabric

I was quite surprised when someone questioned on Facebook the fact that I have Brexiteer friends. I couldn't be friends with someone who is a neo-Fascist, racist, homophobic or a misogynist, but in general I wouldn't let politics stand in the way of friendship. One can agree to disagree on such matters, just as one can on religion. I am even friendly with someone who supports Crystal Palace!

I respect that people legitimately hold different views from mine. If we lose that from our society and politics, we are losing something essential to the maintenance of the social fabric and a democratic political system.

In some ways I find the views of hard core remainers more challenging than those of leavers. Some (not all) of them border on the arrogant in the certainty that they are right. Their case often claims to be more evidence based, while for many leavers it is more emotional which is one way of making a political judgment.

Having studied the EU for over forty years, and seen it from the inside as a leader of a EU research project and a UK representative on an EU committee, my problem with its decision-making is not that is a bureaucratic dictatorship, as some claim, but that decision-making is too cumbersome, slow and complex. Perhaps that is unavoidable when one is dealing with 27 member states and three major institutions, not to mention many minor ones. There is still a technocratic flavour to the whole project, despite the often underrated influence of the European Parliament in the trilogue.

Given the time that it has taken to make some reforms to the Common Agricultural Policy which still absorbs far too much of the budget and is dysfunctional from an environmental point of view, I am rather sceptical of 'reform from within' narratives. Big business has far too much influence on outcomes. However, I do think that a more fragmented Europe would be less successful at counter balancing Russia and exerting influence in the world generally.

The deteriorating fabric of UK politics

With the 13th candidate announcing for the Conservative Party leadership, we now have a baker's dozen wanting the poisoned chalice and eager to join the growing list of Tory leaders brought down by the European question. It's even possible that some candidates will only get their own vote as their nominators may not vote for them. One would think that credible candidates should be required to produce more than two signatures.

Of course, it's a bit like candidates who say they are running for US president but really hope they might be selected as a candidate foe vice-president. Some of them are hoping to get Cabinet posts in returning for pledging their supporters at a later stage (who won't necessarily vote as recommended anyway).

While this comic opera continues, a solution to Brexit is as far away as ever. Indeed, it may no longer be possible to compromise on a soft Brexit that wins grudging acceptance from both sides of the argument. The hard core remainers continue to call for a second referendum, although I don't see this as a viable option if it ever was, while Brexiteers want a no deal exit regardless of the resultant damage which they would see as scaremongering or at worst short term. The EU will not budge on the negotiated settlement, although there is room for manoeuvre on the political declaration.

One possible scenario is a no confidence vote in a new Conservative PM followed by a general election which would probably produce another hung Parliament. One shouldn't get carried away by current poll results as a general election is at least a few months away and getting a quarter of the vote doesn't necessarily get you very far under a first past the post system as other insurgent parties have found in the past.

The threat of a successful bid for Scottish independence has increased. If disentangling a relationship that has lasted for short of 50 years has proved difficult, dismantling one that has lasted over 300 years will be even more challenging, particularly if an independent Scotland was admitted to the EU.

The polarisation in British politics and society may now be hard to overcome and that is not a very happy situation, to say the least. Of course, it's not just about Brexit, but a wider clash between different value systems involving, for example, 'nowheres' and 'somewheres', or between those who are social conservatives/economic interventionists and the more liberally inclined.

If I was younger, I would be thinking about leaving with possible destinations being the western seaboard of the United States (where I have lived and worked), British Columbia (where I nearly went) or Western Australia. As it is, I am stuck with the likelihood of a British version of American culture wars.

Michael Gove's strengths

I don't like Michael Gove. I think he looks ridiculous when he comes back to his house jogging with a bagel. I didn't like his remark about experts. The thought of his wife, Sarah 'Vain' as Private Eye calls her, as political first lady appals me.

Nevertheless, I think that he is a lot smarter than almost all of the other candidates for leader of the Conservative Party. You might say that is a low bar, but I think he has good political antennae.

I have carefully monitored Defra ministers over the years. It is actually a rather difficult department to run given its diverse roles and the challenges it faces. Very few secretaries of state have been successful. They have moved on quickly or seen their political careers come to an end. The one exception that comes to mind is Hilary Benn.

What impresses me about Gove is that he has imposed his own agenda on the department. Some of his actions have been simply crowd pleasers. But there has been a serious attempt to give a greener tinge to farming policy and deal with biodiversity issues.

I think he could actually find a way through the Brexit dilemma which most people, even if it didn't please them, would grudgingly accept. That would a big win.

A legacy of unfulfilled ambitions

A balanced piece of writing on Theresa May by Bronwen Maddox: Theresa May resigns legacy unfulfilled

I only met her once when she was a rising star and I was instrumental in her being given a Parliamentarian of the Year Award. We had a long chat. Contrary to contemporary reports, I found her to be relaxed and very easy to talk to. Perhaps the burdens of office changed her.

Downing Street produced a bunker mentality in Gordon Brown, so perhaps that also happened with Mrs May. Dave Cameron, of course, was the epitome of being chillaxed.

The politics of no deal

An important reminder that there is no clear Parliamentary route to blocking a no deal Brexit: Institute for Government

However, politically it would be difficult for a Brexiteer prime minister to go ahead with no deal. I think a general election this year is now more than likely.

How long can a Parliament last:?

My views on the length of the current Parliamentary session: The Long Parliament

Unfortunately, I was unable to sneak in anything about a topic that always mystifies me: the status and the role of the cap of maintenance.

'Costcutter' election leaflet is disingenuous

The Conservatives are running their EU election campaign on the cheap, given that many of their activists and MPs disapprove of the elections being held and may not even vote for their own party.

I don't find the Conservative leaflet which arrived this morning much more impressive than one offering me a special deal on baked beans. If, as is stated, 'The only party which can get Brexit done is the Conservative Party' why are they talking to Labour? Moreover, many Conservatives think that the backstop in the deal is a trap and what is on offer is BRINO (Brexit in Name Only). Indeed, they argue that it is worse than current arrangements because the UK would have to accept EU rules without having a say in shaping them.

I think Brexiteers would be better off accepting the current offer now and challenging it later if needs be. At least the process would have started.

It is stated that Nigel Farage is 'standing for personal gain'. I am no fan of Nigel Farage, but I do accept that he genuinely believes that the EU is a bad thing and Britain would be better off out of it.

It is stated that if Labour top the poll it would take Jeremy Corbyn 'closer to the Downing Street'. I doubt it; in any case, I expect the Brexit Party to top the poll. Turnout will be around the normal level of 35 per cent, most likely (admittedly tricky to forecast). In some ways the Peterborough by-election will be more significant as it looks as if there will be one 'People's Vote' candidate'.

The Government intends to introduce the withdrawal bill, but I can't see it getting very far, even if an amendment is passed to remove the backstop which the EU would not accept.

My nightmare scenario would be this. May is finally forced out in June. A hard line Brexiteer is elected as Conservative leader (it could be Bozza, but Raab is gaining traction). The new PM goes to Brussels and demands a renegotiation of the agreement. The EU falls about laughing. PM returns to Britain and signals a no deal Brexit. The Government is defeated in a vote of no confidence. A general election is held and another hung Parliament is returned. Deadlock.

The 1979 election revisited

Yesterday BBC Parliament showed the archived footage of the 1979 general election coverage. Even on a day that was too cold to encourage working in the garden, I am not so sad that I watched it all day, but dipped in and out. It's always odd to see people who then looked very young but are now old or, sadly, no longer with us.

I am going to refer to some of the trivia rather than the very important result about which so much has been written.

An early segment focused on the Isles of Scilly and in particular the island of St. Agnes which is the most westerly polling district in the UK. There were 52 electors and earlier in the decade they had a 100 per cent turnout for an election to the Isles of Scilly Council (nonpartisan but often hotly contested). A young woman and (probably) her mother were shown entering the polling station. Apologies to the current day islanders if I offended them by asking if they could identify the young woman.

There were a few women presenters who seemed to have very cut glass accents by today's standards. We wouldn't refer to older women voters as 'old biddies' today, nor refer to a gay woman who lost her seat as a 'homosexual'. Some things have got better.

I had forgotten that Jim Callaghan was followed round the country by 'troops out' protesters. He had to leave the platform at the declaration at Cardiff after being heckled by Pat Arrowsmith standing for 'Troops Out'. When Callaghan arrived, the young and now famous commentator said, 'The prime minister has had to make an undignified entrance through a back passage.'

There would be far more security today. When Callaghan arrived back at Downing Street after dawn, he was greeted by three gentlemen in evening dress on the pavement opposite.

Robin Day tried to interview Sir Keith Joseph who gave unhelpful one line answers. Even Day eventually had to give up. I remember being in a lift with Sir Keith Joseph at his department. He stared unpleasantly at me the whole way up. I got in a lift with Peter Walker at agriculture, who didn't know me from Adam, but assumed I was one of his young civil servants: 'How are you? How's it all going? Any problems with Europe?'

When David Owen held on narrowly at Devonport, no one foresaw what would happen in the next few years, nor for Shirley Williams when she was interviewed when she lost her seat.

The oddest moment of the night was the declaration in North Devon, a few days before Jeremy Thorpe stood trial at the Old Bailey. Auberon Waugh of the Dog Lovers' Party had been served with an injunction which prevented him from distributing his manifesto 'A Better Deal for Your Dog.'

Given the current success of the Greens, it was interesting to see modest but mildly encouraging votes for the Ecology Party.

All we can do is pray

Cometh the hour, cometh the man?

It seems to me that what Theresa May is now trying is a de facto National Government and I don't think it will work because it would split both parties and is not in Jezza's interest.

The fate of peacetime national governments in the UK is not a happy one. In the 1918 'coupon' election Lloyd George was able to continue at a head of a de facto national government which soon became mired in scandal. Eventually the Conservatives staged the Carlton Club revolt which resulted in the formation of the 1922 committee and the Welsh wizard went into the political wilderness. BTW, I would recommend Ffion Hague's biography which draws heavily on Welsh language sources.

In 1931 the formation of the National Government split the Labour Party and left them out of office in their own right until 1945.

If the Conservatives and Labour did agree a deal, they would need enough votes to get it through the Commons which would not be easy. I don't think it's in Jezza's interests to bail out the Conservatives. Also, Labour is understandably concerned about May being succeeded by a hard line Brexiteer, although they would fancy their chances against Bozza who has been out voting in non-existent elections.

One thing that has struck me in the last week is how upset many lifelong members of the Labour Party about the party's current situation. As someone who is barred from party membership of any kind, it is difficult for me to appreciate just how they feel. However, many of them worked for the Labour Party all their adult lives (or earlier) and it is a central part of their identity.

Personally, I am getting exasperated by both the hard line Brexiteers and the hard core remainers. The divisions in Parliament actually reflect divisions in the country which are felt in personal relationships. We also have many urgent public policy issues that are being neglected given the bandwidth taken up by Brexit.

The European Parliament elections are very likely to go ahead and I would expect the Brexit Party to come in first. Although I appreciate that the Lib Dems were burnt by their experience with the Social Democrats, the three remain parties have shot themselves in the foot by not having a coordinated strategy, admittedly not easy under the d'Hondt system. The Change UK (or whatever they are called this week) launch was a farce. If you are a new party you need to know what you brand and message is and Farage does.

We are in May, the month of Mary, Queen of Peace. When I go to mass this morning, I expect to be offered the opportunity to pray for Her Majesty's Government and Her Majesty's Opposition, but I have little hope of any prayers being answered.

Extinction Rebellion

A balanced and informative piece on this phenomenon: Disruption can bring social change

A few observations of my own. I found it interesting that some of the protesters criticised organisations like Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth who were pioneers of direct action tactics on environmental issues. Perhaps they have been overtaken by new forms of action.

In terms of tactics, I did find it odd that public transport was targeted as we need to develop that as part of a climate change strategy. Admittedly, they backed away from disrupting the tube, but what is the problem with the Docklands Light Railway?

The activists claim that the UK Government has done nothing, but it was the first country to pass climate change legislation. Real progress has been made on renewables. Much more needs to be done, but action is also required elsewhere, not least in the United States (some hope), India and China.

The protesters say that their policies are achievable, but certainly not by 2025. For a start, just think of the problems in replacing 24m-26m (figures vary) gas central heating boilers.

Even if the Government did want to engage with them, how does one talk to a movement that has no leadership structure?

Again no progress on reforming the Lords

Brexit, climate change, knife crime, there are lots of pressing issues apart from House of Lords reform. Indeed, this is one reason why it never gets anywhere. It is always going to be low down the political agenda. However, it looks as if we are moving backwards, even in terms of the relatively limited but necessary objective of capping and reducing its size: Two steps forward, two steps back

Why MPs should go on holiday

The decision to start the Easter recess has attracted some criticism, but prolonging the session would not lead to a Brexit solution in the short run. If that can come from anywhere, it will be from the talks between the Government and the Opposition, although it is a very slim hope given the distance between them and the risk of splitting their own parties.

MPs are not going to make good decisions when they are exhausted and have been operating in an emotionally supercharged atmosphere. They need time to reflect. They will also not be 'on holiday' but engaging with their constituents, although that could be a rather fraught process. The recess has also been truncated with MPs returning the day after Easter Monday.

Britain Beyond Brexit

The introduction to this forthcoming book can be read free online here: Britain Beyond Brexit