Clacton does not reflect the country as a whole

Conducting a poll in by-election with 34 candidates is not easy, but what we have suggests that Nigel Farage will win 60-70 per cent of the vote in Clacton, but on a smaller turnout.  Whether beating someone dressed as a garbage can is a triumph is another matter.   Voters there may well get a chance in the autumn to choose between the normal political parties.

It appears that constituents don't care that Farage carries out none of the duties of a constituency MP which would cause a storm in most seats.

I thought it would be interesting to compare Clacton's demographics with those of GB as a whole and my own constituency of Warwick and Leamington.   We recently had a town council by-election in my own ward (Royal Clarendon).   The Greens won, with the Lib Dems just behind and Labour in touching distance.   The Conservatives were way behind and Reform didn't stand.

33 per cent of Clacton voters have what is described as a good education.  The figure is 51 per cent nationally and 62 per cent in W & L.  Gross household income is £33,147 in Clacton, £42,397 nationally and £46,828 in the Royal Spa and Warwick.   Deprivation is indexed at 64 per cent in Clacton, 51 per cent nationally and 43 per cent in my neck of the woods.

The mean age in Clacton is 56.6, as against 49.8 nationally and 47.6 in W & L.  Clacton is 96 per cent ethically white compared with 83 per cent nationally and 82 per cent in W & L.  We have a large Sikh community and have had a Sikh mayor  In addition, there is a large Portuguese speaking population, many of them Brazilians.   Areas which have very few ethnic minorities tend to be most concerned about immigration as an issue.

It's interesting that voters who clearly have many economic challenges think that a party backed by billionaires is going to help them surmount then,

Badenoch's purge

I wrote recently about Burnham's purge, but Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has been conducting one of her own.   New Conservative candidates have to sign up to agreeing to exit the ECHR and to oppose 'Net Zero'.

This marks yet another step in the end of the 'One Nation' tendency which was at one time prevalent in the Conservative Party, exemplified by 'Rab' Butler, Harold Macmillan and Edward Heath.   I must plead guilty myself as I was active myself as an undergraduate in PEST (Pressure for Economic and Social Toryism) within the unfortunately named Federation of University Conservative and Unionist Associations (think about it).

The ascendancy of Margaret Thatcher saw the beginning of the end of One Nation influence, she liked to call them 'wets'.  Willie Whitelaw continued to represent this tradition, although he seemed to put loyalty to the leader first.

John Major was 'One Nation' in at least some respects, his deputy Michael Heseltine more vigorously so and he continues to make interventions on Brexit in particular in his nineties.

However, by the 1990s 'One Nation' intellectuals like Ian Gilmour or pragmatists like Peter Walker had seen their time in the party to come to an end.

Some of the few remaining moderates have lamented the fact that one time minister Sir Grant Shapps has been barred from standing.   However, I must say I thought that he was not impressive, indeed my heart sank when Dave Cameron entrusted him with implementing the city mayors initiative.

Former West Midlands mayor Sir Andy Street tried to make the argument last year that the Conservative Party did best as a broad church that appealed to the political centre, but he didn't get much traction.  The Conservatives seem prepared to lose votes to the Liberal Democrats if they can win votes from Reform.

In a recent interview, Badenoch said that her values were 'Yoruba values' (as distinct from Nigerian values which has caused some debate in Nigeria).   I am not really sure what those are, at least in a UK context, but they are probably a long way from 'One Nation' Conservatism.   Apart from anything else, they imply a much smaller state whereas the 'wets' were broadly accepting of the post-war economic and social settlement.

Burnham's purge

We haven't seen anything like it since Harold Macmillan's Night of the Long Knives when he sacked seven Cabinet ministers in an unsuccessful bid to boost his fading popularity.

The Lord Chancellor, Lord Kilmuir, had repeatedly told Supermac that his place was at his disposal, but when he was sacked he complained that a cook would be given more notice.

In the Commons then backbench MP Jeremy Thorpe commented, 'Greater love hath no man that he lay down his friends for his life.'

Now the Starmerites (whomsoever they might be) have felt the blade of the King of the North.  Some talented people have been axed. while Lord Sawar (as he now is) has been brought down from Scotland as a reward for the first person to call for Starmer to go.   Enoch Powell said that all political careers end in failure, but his limp performance in the Scottish Parliament elections seems to have been forgiven.

On Sky News's The Wrap last night examples were given of north-west MPs be given preferment or, even it was alleged, the partner of a Burnham backer.

Burnham had better be careful.   Darren Jones has also plunged the knife in by pointing out that the removal of VAT on domestic electricity is unfunded.

It was surely a mistake to remove Nick Thomas-Symonds from the Cabinet Office given his understanding of the complex and delicate negotiations with the EU.

Labour's rural MPs fear neglect by Burnham

Andy Burnham has been urged to stop rural voters “drifting away” from Labour by a group of MPs cautioning against too much urban bias.  The ’King of the North’ was told by those representing countryside seats won by the party for the first time in 2024 not to treat their areas as peripheral.

A policy blueprint by the Labour Rural Research Group (LRRG), which has 40 MPs — about 10 per cent of the parliamentary party — said any devolution drive should not only benefit major urban centres.  The comments came in a report, due to be published on Tuesday, that criticised successive governments for treating rural areas as “economically marginal”.

James Naish, vice-chair of the LRRG, wrote: “The purpose of devolution shouldn’t simply be to shift power from Whitehall to major urban centres.  It should go much further and ensure that communities with different geographies, economies and needs are properly understood within national policy. Rural Britain cannot be treated as an afterthought, nor can urban policy simply be retrofitted to rural communities.”

He added that these communities “shouldn’t be seen as peripheral to national renewal” and that the next phase of Labour in government should not see them as areas requiring financial support.

Figures cited by the LRRG showed just 27 per cent of voters surveyed for its report were confident the government would strengthen its rural policy, while 40 per cent were not confident.

Although concern was voiced over the scale of the challenge Labour will face in rural seats at the next election, the LRRG said there was still a chance for Burnham to change the party’s fortunes.   Among the policies he was encouraged to consider were a business rates taper for rural and farm-based firms, as well as making it easier for farmers to diversify their property to boost income.

Burnham was urged to make rural Britain a separate part of the government’s tourism strategy and give communities more perks for hosting renewable energy infrastructure.

Guy Bland

How is Guy Bland, the fictitious Labour MP for the rural constituency of Borsetshire South getting on?  Readers may recall that he stood as a candidate in the hope of using it as a launch pad to get a better job in the charity sector and was to his surprise elected.

Bland had long ago given up any hope of defending the seat at the next election.   He is no fan of Andy Burnham and only belatedly and reluctantly nominated him as leader.  He realises that he is likely to lose his unpaid role as assistant whip for rural Labour MPs.

One remote hope is that as Burnham is the first Catholic prime minister and is therefore prevented by early 19th century legislation from undertaking ecclesiastical functions, perhaps Bland as an Anglican who lives in the cathedral close at Felpersham could undertake them on his behalf?

Gove's latest gaffe

Lord Michael Gove is infamous for his comment, 'I think this country has had enough of experts.'  Arguably the experts weren't so wrong about the economic costs of Brexit.

Yet the editorial in the latest Spectator refers to 'the dreary beachfronts of Jaywick and Frinton.'

Jaywick is admittedly the most economically and socially deprived location in England.  Yet Frinton always thought of itself as rather exclusive, perhaps less so these days.    There is now a fish and chip shop there which was banned for a long time.

Back in the 1950s, Frinton was a favourite destination for a summer day out, even more so when we moved to Essex.   There was just one road into the town controlled by a level crossing.

The front road leads on to the Greensward.   Admittedly, the predominantly Edwardian and inter war developments were marred by the construction of some off plan tower blocks in the 1960s.

The sandy beach was patrolled by 'beach inspectors' to ensure that there was no impropriety.   Our day always finished with a walk into Walton on the Naze where the pier offered traditional entertaiments.

Some years ago I took two of my then 18 year old granddaughers with the mum of one of them to stay in Walton.  They were thrilled to see the flat roofed Art Deco houses in one part of Frinton.

I had great difficulty in finding a local restaurant that would meet the up market tastes of my eldest granddaughter anywhere in Nigel Farage's constituency.  Eventually I located one in Frinton.

It was rather crowded and I was puzzled by the next door table constantly referring to 'going out'.  I thought this perhaps referred to the old slogan 'Harwich for the continent, Frinton for the incontinent.'

In fact they were talking about Brexit.

Who are the Establishment?

The term 'Establishment' was popularised by the journalist Henry Fairlie in 1955.  In those days there was arguably an Establishment, centred around the networking that occurred in the all male London clubs.  The Reform only admitted women in 1981 and Shirley Williams as a minister had to enter by the goods lift for a meeting.

I was invited to White's once by a senior Conservative politician and the food seemed reminiscent of what might be served in a boarding school.   No doubt it has improved.

The Anatomy of Britain published by Antony Sampson in 1962 captured this era well and subsequent editions mapped the changes.

If anything the Establishment has been replaced by a 'political class' of professional politicians.   Politics degree; research assistant to a MP; SPAD; think tank; Parliamentary candidate.  Whether this is step forward is a moot point.

These days one hears more about the 'deep state' which I thought had American origins.   However, Wikipedia tells me: 'Deep state is a term used for unauthorized secret networks of power operating within a government but independent of its political leadership, in pursuit of their own agendas and goals. Although the term originated in Turkey, various interpretations of the concept have emerged in other national contexts.'

An article in The Economist states: 'American pundits have often used “deep state” interchangeably with the bureaucracies of the military and spy agencies, especially those bits that leak against the government.'

It appears that both the Establishment and the deep state may be operating in Clacton, possibly through the person of Count Binface or the Official Monster Raving Loony Party.

But then 'the people' will no doubt strike a blow against the Refuse Party.   Who are 'the people'?  Do I count as one with my 2008 car?  I didn't go to Oxbridge, but I suppose I am disqualified through having voted Remain?

Count Binface launches manifesto

Count Binface has launched his manifesto for the by-election at Clacton.  But will he get to appear on Question Time?  Will he wear a special gold plated bin by the seaside?

 Knowing the area quite well, here are my suggestions of additional pledges:

• Bring back beach inspectors on Frinton beach
• Reinstate the railway on Walton Pier
• Statue of the Duke of Connaught on the Greensward at Frinton 
• Passport control at the one road across the railway at Frinton
• Restore second platform at Frinton station
• Rename Thorpe le Soken station as Farage On The Soak
• Bring back Claction Interval Service hauled by Britannia locomotives with toasted tea cakes served in the restaurant car in the afternoon