My former colleague and lifelong Russia expert Mark Harrison gave a sobering presentation on the war in Ukraine to CAGE Warwick yesterday. He could not see any good outcome. It should be possible to listen to it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPg-SGzDjXc
Mark had to point out that he was on the edge of his expertise when asked military or strategic questions. His central theme was about economic sanctions or 'economic war' as it is seen in Moscow.
However, he pointed out that annual Russian war games always ended with the deployment of a nuclear option. In Russian terminology this was 'de-escalation' as a potential adversary would not respond in kind. Clearly there is room for miscalculation.
Russian thinking saw war as a whole rather than in separate compartments such as 'cyber', 'information' etc. And although he didn't say this, one weapon was seen much like another.
Mark has devoted his life to the study of Russia and has many Russian friends. He is clearly saddened by the turn of events.
I await with interest the next podcast from Nuclear Britain expert Julie McDowall on the risks associated with tactical nuclear weapons.
It is important not to be too alarmist. As was pointed out in the seminar, comparisons with the 1930s can be unhelpful.
What is clear that a nuclear deterrent is of limited help when one is faced with a conventional war on a large scale. I would agree with (Lord) Daniel Finkelstein who argued in The Times that we need a serious debate about the nuclear deterrent (this is what Julie has been arguing since the mid 1980s).
