Who will voter ID hurt?

Political scientist Phil Cowley gives his views on the voter ID issue: ' It won't be as big a problem as the raw figs appear, because turnout is low anyway and the sort of people who vote in local elections are the sort who will either have ID or go back home to get it.  [I’m not so sure about that].

It will still be a problem, with multiple vox pops with disgruntled voters, and enough to create a storm. These will not all be left-leaning young people either; suspect plenty of pensioners will get caught out.

While I don't personally accept the arguments for voting ID (esp in a country without ID cards), they do not, to many voters, sound outrageous.  This is especially true of the "there are so few cases of it" claim, where the obvious "but how would you know?" retort works.

If the policy isn't changed before the General Election, it will be a much bigger problem then. It won't be changed before the General Election.

I do think this is being driven by perceptions of political advantage, rather than genuine concern about electoral integrity.  My suspicion (and here I really am just guessing) is that it may end up being much messier in partisan terms than people suspect; it would be ironic if lots of Conservative voters got stuffed by it.

It will work in all sorts of ways, including resources going towards ensuring voters have ID, that otherwise would be spent elsewhere. 11. One effect (ironically) might be to drive even more people towards postal votes.'

Can the CBI survive?

The crisis at the CBI has deepened following further disturbing revelations and a number of leading firms have resigned.   They include Aviva, BMW, Jaguar Land Rover, John Lewis, Mastercard and Vodafone.

The CBI claims to speak for 190,000 businesses, but the number is boosted by the fact that it has a hybrid membership model made up of individual businesses and trade associations.  Hence it can claim to represent the 46,000 members of the National Farmers' Union.

It is difficult to work out how many individual companies there are in membership, but the Financial Times estimates there are about 700.   These companies pay the bulk of the £20m subscriptions.  It is thought that some companies pay over £100,000 a year.

The CBI has now suspended activities until June, but can it recover?   Who else can speak for business? MakeUK and HospitalityUK effectively represent their sectors.  The Institute of Directors have individual members.   The British Chambers of Commerce are made up of local chambers of varying strength and largely speak for smaller businesses.

If the CBI disappeared, it would have to be reinvented.  Business interests are in many ways divergent, but there are common concerns about macro economic policy such as corporate taxation.   However, a new organisation based on big businesses might lack legitimacy.

The CBI in crisis

The CBI has suspended all its external events including its annual dinner after it deals with allegations of rape, sexual harassment and other misconduct at then organisation.

A number of members have distanced themselves from the CBI, some saying that they are reviewing their membership.   Of course, it could give them a convenient excuse to leave.

The allegations are being investigated by a law firm, but there are deeper structural problems at the voice of British business.

These can be dated back to the late 1960s when it decided to become a de facto Confederation of British Business by admitting retailers and other non-manufacturing firms as full members.  Although that may have boosted income as the manufacturing sector declined, it diluted the CBI's voice as a spokesperson for manufacturing.   That vacuum has been partly filled by MakeUK, formerly the Engineering Employers' Federation.

The CBI reached the peak of its persuasive power in the 1970s as a part of a tripartite arrangement for economic policy.  Its voluntary prices initiative helped to shore up the Heath Government's prices and incomes policy.  The 1974-79 Labour Government often referred to the 'Government, the TUC and the CBI' in the Queen's Speech.

As far as Mrs Thatcher was concerned, the CBI was a relic of harmful corporatism and its influence waned.  It did recover some ground under the Major Government and New Labour, but government increasingly consulted directly with leading firms, sometimes formalised in business advisory councils.

With business being overwhelmingly remain, Boris Johnson had little time for their views as he expressed with an expletive.  

Weathering this crisis and remaining a credible voice of business is going to be challenging.