My great-granddaughter currently lives in Spain with her mother and grandparents. Spain has its own housing crisis, as evidenced in recent demonstrations and measures taken by the government.
However, today I want to focus on the UK and Generation Rent. I am going to start with a fictionalised case of a couple who are distant relatives by marriage of my great-granddaughter. They are in their mid-twenties and are both qualified to postgraduate level. Consequently they have relatively well paid jobs, bur are subject to a 'graduate tax' of 9 per cent which eats into their disposable income.
For work reasons they live in the London outer commuter belt, although they work locally. However, the area itself is very prosperous with many well-paid employment opportunities. They are paying £1,500 a month rent for a two bedroom property. They are relatively fortunate in that they have some funds for a deposit, but it may not be enough in the expensive local market.
Many graduates are finding it difficult to find jobs that reflect their qualifications and various reports I have seen indicate that the 'graduate premium' is probably decreasing. Many graduates are living at home with parents while they seek suitable work.
In Germany, the AFD appears to have won some support from younger people who are disgruntled because their standard of living is below that of their parents. This was particularly the case in the former DDR, but also applies to some industrial areas in the west.
Reform in the UK draws a lot of its support from Brexit voters who have supported other hard right parties such as UKIP in the past. In particular, it is popular with older white males. Of course, in time, this support base will naturally decline. However, there are indications that Reform is making headway with younger males in particular.
I would like to give some stylised facts from family history about the changing housing market. Go back to the 1921 census and my maternal grandfather, having lost his good wartime job in the defence industry, was renting privately and taking in lodgers to make ends meet. My paternal grandfather was shortly to move into some of the first social housing provided by the Co-op.
In the late 1930s, my parents and all my uncles were in skilled manual or junior non-manual occupations. They were all able to get mortgages to purchase terraced modern properties aimed at people like them. One uncle who had a small business was able to pay cash for a semi-detached property. There was effectively no planning system which did produce some sprawl and inefficient use of land.
When I got my first post in 1971 I was fortunate enough to be given rent free accommodation with all utilities and local tax covered. In three years I was able to save enough for a substantial deposit on a flat. The only problem I had was that I was single, having broken up with my then girl friend, and the Halifax was reluctant to lend to me, but I got an insurance broker to intervene on my behalf. Following my marriage in 1978, we were able to purchase a large Victorian terrace needing some TLC for £16,250. I still live there.
Clearly today's twenty somethings face a much tougher environment. The ratio between incomes and house prices has exploded. The Government is trying to increase supply by facing down Nimbys and freeing up planning permission, but the construction industry has shortages of skilled labour. It is going to take time to turn things round and in the meantime it is easy to blame migrants.
