Take a chance on me

Theresa May's theme tune yesterday really should have been 'Take a Chance on Me', although I know that 'Dancing Queen' is one of her favourite tracks. In any event, she didn't meet her Waterloo at the Conservative conference yesterday. Groan, but I couldn't get these jokes into my television appearances yesterday.

It was a well crafted speech and effective because it sounded authentic. (Well done, Keelan Carr - he has been very low profile before now - but other such as Gavin Barwell helped). She returned to some of the 'One Nation' narratives she talked about when she became prime minister.

Of course, rhetoric is one thing, reality is another. She talked of an end to austerity, but where is the money coming from? Fuel duty was frozen again. I appreciate that that is an unpopular tax and that oil prices are rising, but the cost could be £800m in one year.

Spreadsheet Phil looks unlikely to risk the farm at the end of October with Brexit looming. Indeed, according to the FT this morning, the Treasury is already concerned about spending pledges made at the conference. The NHS will get some extra money, but what about cash strapped local councils that have to provide social care? Their failure to do more than the legal minimum impacts the NHS.

The speech was, of course, significant for what was not said. There was no mention of the C-word. The strategy appears to be to stand up to the EU in the hope that they will cave in. 'I am standing up for Britain', 'we must keep our nerve' etc. But any hope of a compromise on Northern Ireland has been undermined by the Democratic Unionists going into 'no surrender' mode.

If she can get a deal, Conservative backbenchers would need to think carefully about voting it down. Some Labour MPs would probably support the Government. However, the risk of crashing out remains real and preparations are still inadequate.

I think the proposed festival is a gimmick. I remember the 1951 one which was fun at the time because of the Battersea funfair and it was a sign that the end of wartime austerity might be in sight. Churchill thought it was an advert for socialism, and I suppose in a way it was.

BTW, as an article in The Times pointed out yesterday, time is running out if a second referendum is to be held before March given the relevant legislation and the role of the Electoral Commission.

If legislation was introduced when Parliament convenes next week, the earliest date on which a referendum could be held would be March 28th: How long would it take