Reflections of an amateur psephologist

I haven't said anything about the election so far in part because even the professional election studies experts are finding it difficult to work out what is going on.   And as a public policy person, it is what happens after the votes are counted that interests me most.   There has been a conspiracy of silence from the main parties on the fiscal challenges facing the country.  

Even with over one million drawn into the highest tax bracket and over 6 million paying 40 per cent, the money isn't there to fix broken public services.   Hard choices will have to be made and the campaign has done nothing to alert voters to this fact.

With a volatile electorate, it is difficult to turn votes forecasts into seats won.   There are going to be some tight three side contests in which the majority may be in three or even two figures.  Consider the new seat of Bicester and Woodstock (where one of my granddaughters will be voting).   Poll figures suggest that the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems are neck and neck at around 30/31 per cent.

Turnout will be crucial and it will certainly be down, but by how much?  A lot depends on whether undecided voters who normally vote Conservatives decided to revert to their traditional allegiance on polling day - I suspect quite a lot will.   However, many will not vote because of a growing disillusionment with democratic politics.   'They're all the same,' they say which the Greens and Reform clearly are not.

I think that we have reached peak Reform and that should help the Conservatives.   Farage's remarks about Putin called his question his judgment and his patriotism.  My gardener thinks that Putin is a great man, but that is not a view shared widely among gardeners or the general population.   The remarks made by a Reform canvasser are a further blow.

I really do not have much idea of what is happening in Scotland, but there will also be some knife edge contests there.   I think that the Scot Nats will retain about 20-25 seats.

My hunch is that there will not be a Tory wipeout and that Ed Davie will not become leader of the opposition, but that Labour will have a substantial and sufficient majority.   There is in fact no such thing as a super majority and having large numbers of under occupied backbenchers is simply a recipe for trouble.

If the Conservatives retain about 150 seats they may be able to avoid electing a head banger as their leader and form a sesnible opposition.

We can then focus on two other very important elections in France and the US.   The UK may be an outlier in having a centrist dad in charge.

BTW, the first election I covered in print was in 1959.  This is the first general election in which I have not been asked for an opinion by a newspaper, radio station or television.  However, there is a time when everyone should leave the stage: President Biden please note.