Brexit and the Isles of Scilly

The Isles of Scilly were one of the first local authority areas to declare in the EU referendum and voted to Remain. The islands have benefitted from EU membership. They face a number of challenges, not least interruptions to air and boat services by bad weather.

The islands are governed by a unitary authority that is also responsible for water and sewerage. There are significant environmental challenges. The chair of the council has made an excellent statement on the consequences of Brexit: Amanda Martin

As a frequent visitor to the islands and a contributor to Radio Scilly and Scilly Now and Then can I say that they are an excellent holiday destination, particularly if you enjoy good beaches, scenery and walking. The sea food is excellent as well.

A new deal for all member states

Vivien Schmidt of Boston University urges the EU to offer a new deal to all member states, and not to treat Brexit as something that can be disregarded as exceptionalism: New deal

The Revd. Blair speaks out

By and large, the Private Eye spoofs of succeeding prime ministers have always been excellent. We started with Mrs Wilson's diary, then we had the Heathco cartoon. Mrs Wilson's diary came back; I don't remember anything from Callaghan, but then we had Dennis Thatcher's diary. After that it was 'The Secret Diary of John Major' based on Adrian Mole. That still makes an occasional appearance.

Then we had the diary of the Reverend Tony Blair which captured his preachy nature, with cameo appearances from Mr Prescott from the working men's club. I always thought Blair was smarmy and shallow which is why I voted 'None of the Above' in 1997.

More recently, we had the Coalition Academy and then the Cameron Free School, again very well done. The Cameron Free School will shortly close and I have suggested to Private Eye that if Mrs May becomes the next prime minister she could become the first female incumbent of St. Albion's, after all she is a vicar's daughter (and, in the nicest possible way, it shows).

Tony Blair stated in a television interview last night that we should not discount a second referendum on the EU because 'the public will can change'. More precisely, he said that we should keep our options open. Cynical individuals might unfairly suggest that this was an attempt to boost his standing ahead of the publication of the Chilcot Report later this week. It is being rumoured that Jeremy Corbyn intends to make a defamatory allegation against the Revd. Blair using the coverage of Parliamentary privilege and that is one reason he is hanging on as leader.

I know that in the past other, smaller countries have been asked to hold a second vote on EU issues after failing to get the right answer the first time round. However, this is a much more fundamental issue.

The referendum vote provided a clear majority, but not a large one. I don't think that the 48 per cent who voted 'Remain' should be expected to shut up, as some Leave campaigners appear to be arguing. Minorities have rights in democracies, particularly large ones. However, I do not think that the referendum can be re-run. Some argue that voters were misled by lies or misinformation, but there was exaggeration on both sides in an unedifying campaign.

Approval of the terms is a matter for Parliament in what is still in large part a parliamentary rather than a plebiscitary democracy.

The country has shown itself to be divided on lines of education, income, geography and age. The next prime minister needs to be a unifier and it has been argued that Theresa May is best placed to fill that role.

An hour is a long time in politics

A brilliant cartoon, copyright Daily Telegraph

Harold Wilson once famously said that a week is a long time in politics. This week has shown us that an hour is a long time. On Thursday I was visiting friends in Devon, but we spent a lot of time hypnotically watching the BBC 24 Hour News to keep up with the latest sensational developments, while I dealt with live interview requests from French radio and calls from American journalists and even from Chile.

I have been following British politics since the late 1950s and this is the most astonishing period I can remember. As someone said (so much has been said by so many), no government, no opposition and no plan (for Brexit).

As of now it looks as if the race for the Conservative leadership is resolving itself into a contest between Theresa May as the favoured candidate and Andrea Leadsom as the representative of 'Leave'. In the extraordinary times in which we live, no one raises an eyebrow at a junior minister from one of the less major departments being seriously considered as a prime ministerial candidate. She is, of course, a Warwick politics graduate. Her biography is here: Biography

She was (initially at least) brought up by her mother as a single parent. Her biography implies that she did not politically active until after she graduated. I am still trying to track down someone who remembers her at Warwick.

When I was chair of the Political Studies Association many years ago, I recommended that at our annual awards ceremony we should give an award to Theresa May as a rising star. We duly made her Parliamentarian of the Year and she came along to accept the award (not everyone does, although to his credit Gordon Brown did).

We had a conversation and what I took away from that was this was a very intelligent, personable lady, confident in herself without being over bearing. A sort of Margaret Thatcher without the less pleasant bits. I am pleased that Conservative MPs I respect are backing her.

Interesting YouGov poll where the divergences are so big you can't put them down to polling errors. I have added up positives and negatives and disregarded the many don't knows (this is electorate wide):

• Leadsom +32
• May +28
• Crabb -8
• Fox -32
• Gove -41!

As for the Labour Party, it is in total disarray. Jeremy Corbyn needs to do the decent thing and stand down, not because he is left wing, but because he is not up to the job.

Rock of Gibraltar

An interesting observation by John Curtice at a conference in London today. He noted that Gibraltar was likely to be the first place to declare in the UK referendum as it was one hour ahead of the UK. In a very tight contest, it could decide the result.

He noted that results would be declared by local authority area and the earliest results would be from smaller, rural authorities.

My case for remain

Globalisation is a reality, but its economic advance has not been matched by political structures to offset its worst effects. The European Union represents a new type of political structure which offers the potential to provide some measure of effective regulation. The point was well made by Rupert Murdoch. Asked why he was so opposed to the European Union, he said “That’s easy. When I go into Downing Street they do what I say; when I go to Brussels they take no notice.”

The Bank of England, the OECD, the IMF and the vast majority of economists say that the UK would be worse off if it left the European Union. Brexiters argue that we could easily negotiate a free trade deal with the EU that would give us access to the single market without having to abide by his rules. Perhaps they forget that while exports to Europe account for 12 per cent of our GDP, exports to the UK account for only three per cent on average for the other member states.

The remaining member states are not going to want to do us any favours for derailing the European project, nor are they going to want to offer a deal that will encourage other member states to exit.

Brexiters talk of the savings that would result from exit, working from a gross rather than a net figure and overlooking any decline in tax revenues resulting from a fall in growth or the fee that would have to be paid for access to the single market. It has been promised that this money could be spent on the NHS, on removing VAT from electricity and gas and maintaining subsidies. I have even heard a pro-Brexit MP say that it could be used for mending potholes, keeping libraries open and restoring bus services.

The European Union has played a leading role in developing environmental policy, not least in relation to climate change. Environmental standards in the UK are higher than they would have been in the absence of EU membership. Pollution is no respecter of national boundaries. It is far better dealt with by the EU than through a series of ad hoc agreements.

The study group I chaired for the Yorkshire Agricultural Society concluded that exit would not be beneficial either for UK agriculture or for the food processing industry which is one of our largest industries. Some farmers expect a bonfire of controls, but regulations are there for a reason: for example, we regulate pesticides because they are toxic substances. Relatively few regulations would disappear after Brexit.

We would face great complexities in renegotiating international trade deals after Brexit. The EU negotiates as a bloc that gives it considerable leverage in international trade negotiations. We do not have any trade diplomats experienced in this complex task.

The EU is far from perfect, but we need to continue to press for reform from inside. A UK outside the EU would be diminished in economic, political and cultural terms.

The 1966 general election

On Easter Monday, the BBC Parliament channel broadcast the entire coverage of the 1966 general election. With storm Kate raging outside, and making any outdoor activities unattractive, I watched most of the coverage.

David Butler said near the beginning of the broadcast that 'Britain is a uniform country.' Of course, he was particularly referring to the concept of swing which he was keen to defend throughout the broadcast.

What struck me about the vox pops with voters (not easy to do, as I know) was how many of them used the argument that Labour should be given a longer period in office with a larger majority to see what they could do. I was also struck by how many Conservative voters thought there was a real prospect of extensive nationalisation, for example of the banks. It was difficult to see the pragmatic Wilson ever doing that.

One American journalist who was interviewed said that if the country could produce political leaders of the calibre of Heath, Wilson and Grimond, the body politic must be in a healthy state. Could we say the same of today's leaders in either the UK or the United States?

Scottish Secretary and machine politician Willie Ross said that we were too politically mature to contemplate self-government for Scotland. However, David Butler did pick up on the growing Scottish Nationalist vote in the lowland belt.

In his press conference, Edward Heath was far more relaxed than I remember him, although he displayed his distracting habit of heaving his shoulders when laughing.