Euston is the new Finland Station

The arrival of Andy Burnham at Euston Station last week has been compared to that of Lenin at the Finland Station in 1917.  Should he win in Makerfield, even more delirious scenes can be expected as the 'King of the North' arrives to the strains of 'See The Triumphant Hero Comes'.

A likely scenario is as follows:

• Burnham wins in Makerfield, not bigly, but respectably on a low turnout.  The Greens run a token campaign.
• Keir Starmer stands down (there is a case for him being made Foreign Secretary as has happened with two former prime ministers)
• Wes Streeting finds he no longer has 80 supporters and Burnham is introduced to the House by Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband    

I am less impressed by Burnham than many.  I think he has a record as a political chameleon concealing the fact that he is a power hungry opportunist.  He may find himself in trouble with the bond markets.

Even his record as mayor of Manchester is more mixed than is often portrayed.  Yes, he sorted out the buses and made them cheaper, but the homelessness problem has returned (although, to be fair, I am not sure anyone could solve that).    However, voters apparently find him 'approachable'.

I think there is quite a step up from being a successful metropolitan mayor to being prime minister as Boris Johnson found.

Mea culpa, as chair of a commission on elected mayors I am partly responsible, although I think that our report was quite balanced.   I will never forget the subsequent meeting at No.10 when Bozza arrived late, puffing and sweating, only to gratuitously insult Dave Cameron until Hezza told him to shut up.

I will be personally quite relieved if there is a coronation as I did not feel comfortable in the role of the chosen 330,000 who would choose the next prime minister.  However, it was not long ago that the choice fell to MPs and before that the chief whip asked ministers 'Wab  or Hawold'?

The Labour leadership race

Wes Streeting has resigned, although it is not yet clear that he has the 80 other MPs necessary to launch his leadership bid.

One must not forget that the Labour Party is not the Conservative Party.   There is more loyalty to the leader and some regard this as an attempt to force an early general election.   My first vote will go to Starmer.

Streeting is none too popular with Labour members who tend to be more to the left.  Many see him as a Blairite retread and Tory lite.  However, he is competent and a good communicator.

'King of the North' Andy Burnham needs to find a seat and win it and the member for Manchester Rushholme has denied reports that he intends to stand down.  Burnham is supposedly the most popular with the electorate although in fact the modal category is 'don't know'.   He is the least popular candidate with the bond markets who certainly have a vote, possibly a veto,

There are still some doubts about whether Angela Rayner is prime ministerial material and it may be that Ed Miliband will carry the soft left banner, although he would probably be satisfied with becoming chancellor.  He did lose a general election in 2015.

Yvette Cooper seems to be never mentioned, although she is on today's Private Eye cover.  Perhaps being a 'safe pair of hands' is not enough.

Dark horse and Everest conqueror Al Carns has a long essay in the New Statesman.   It has a coherent narrative (security) but seems to lack specific proposals.   Perhaps he is just bidding for a Cabinet seat,

The contest is bad for effective government, bad for the economy and bad for the Labour Party, but that is the way things have gone since the Brexit referendum.

Do we ever learn?

The supposedly 'soft left' Tribune Group has produced an agenda for a new prime minister which includes taking responsibility for economic growth away from the Treasury and the OBR to a new department..

This has been tried before in the shape of the Department of Economic Affairs created by the Wilson Government in 1964.  Admittedly this was partly to find a berth for the mercurial George Brown and to set up 'creative tension' with Jim Callaghan as Chancellor.

Brown eventually became foreign secretary and then left government altogether.  In the meantime, the Treasury asserted its authority as it was dealing with the short term, leaving the DEA to come up with hopelessly optimistic long term plans.

I arrived at the DEA in 1969 as a civil service intern and morale was incredibly low with civil servants desperately trying to find something worthwhile to do.   A huge computer printout of economic forecasts arrived and no one knew what to do with it.

The Treasury is unpopular because someone has to say no to spending requests when taxation and debt service costs are at record levels.

The sad fact is that expectations of what government can provide are out of kilter with economic reality and reviving the DEA will solve nothing.

The Andy Burnham illusion

My local Labour MP Matt Western belongs to the sensible tendency in the Labour Party.   He writes today: 'My view on the future is that Keir retains my support. He has made an error and apologised for it. I desperately do not want to see our party dominated by infighting and manoeuvres on who will take over. We all saw it in the Tory party and how poorly it presented to the public. We must remain focused on what matters: delivery."

In relation to delivery, I noticed in a vox pop yesterday that a new Reform voter said that Labour had done nothing in two years.   Yet two pieces of legislation alone have been controversial and have far reaching impacts: employment rights and renters' rights.

I heard an Andy Burnham supporter say on the radio that he is more popular with the electorate than other party leaders and not tainted by association with recent 'failures',   But would he remain as popular if he took on the challenging role of prime minister in such dark times?

Remember, remember Patrick Gordon Walker,  Ax shadow foreign secretary, he lost his seat at Smethick in the 1964 general election after an admittedly nasty campaign.  The Labour MP for Leyton was persuaded to stand down and Walker lost the subsequent by-election, large numbers of Labour voters staying at home.

It is said that the NEC may now not block Burnham from standing in a by-election in Merseyside or Lancashire.  But is there now such a thing as 'safe' Labour seat in the north-west?   It could all end in ears for the power hungry opportunist and political chameleon.  

Getting rid of Starmer may not suit the right

The Sunday Times has been a leader of the media pack hunting Keir Starmer, but they had a 'wait a minute' moment at the end of their editorial yesterday as they realised that Starmer might be replaced by someone to the left who would be more harmful to the wealthy interests they seek to defend.

I have never really understood why Starmer is so unpopular, but I suppose that reflects my disconnect with the people I live among.

Given the dangerous international situation, which Starmer has handled rather well, the last thing we need now as a country is the psychodrama of a leadership contest.  Starmer would not go without a fight, but even if he was re-elected, his authority would be in tatters.

As a Labour Party member, I don't find any of the options very appealing:

• Wes Streeting, competent, but too Blairite even for me
• Angela Rayner, emotionally intelligent, but would find the role challenging
• Andy Burnham, least unpopular with voters and most likely to win in the autumn, in my view a power hungry opportunist.
• Ed Miliband, popular with Labour members, I have sat next to him at dinner and found him likeable, but voters see him as weird.   Could become Chancellor.
• Yvette Cooper, never mentioned, probably seen as not assertive enough and it's all Balls.