If I was a senior member of the Labour Party, I would be very annoyed with David Miliband for giving fresh legs to the leadership story. He may wish to present it as a challenge to David Cameron, but at the very least it is setting out his stall for a future leadership contest.
Labour MPs should be careful about what they wish for. A messy leadership contest would be followed by strong moral pressure for a general election which they would almost certainly lose, providing the shortest prime ministerial tenure in modern history.
There is, of course, no constitutional reason for an election as we elect a party not a person to govern. However, having changed leaders twice, the pressure would be on to seek a fresh mandate.
I am still doubtful about an autumn leadership election. The real danger point for Gordon Brown will be next May if there is a poor performance in the council and European Parliament elections. An authoritative report suggesting that the housing market will not recover for three years does not bode well for the government giving that house prices play such a large role in the 'feel good' factor.
Thursday, 31 July 2008
Sunday, 27 July 2008
Dave's got his bike back
The good news this sunny Sunday morning is that Conservative leader Dave Cameron has been reunited with his beloved bicycle:
Bike
Bike
Saturday, 26 July 2008
Theft of Dave's bike obscures political development
No longer on his bike
The theft of Dave Cameron's trusty bike from outside Tesco's in the Portobello Road attracted plenty of media attention. Apparently Dave was seen plaintively walking along the road asking if anyone had seen his trusty mount. The BBC reported the important news that the Conservative leader had been 'picking up a few bits of salad' when the theft occurred.
All this obscured the more important news of a new alliance between the Conservatives and the Ulster Unionists which it is hoped will be finalised before the autumn. Before the Northern Ireland crisis, the two parties acted as one with selected Ulster Unionists getting junior ministerial jobs. Now the plan is that they will take the Tory whip again and that Lord Trimble, who already takes the Conservative whip in the Lords, will join the Shadow Cabinet.
Although the Ulster Unionists only have one MP, even that could be important in the event of a hung Parliament - still not impossible despite 'reading off' of the next general election outcome from by-election results. Linking up with the Tories might give an electoral boost to the Ulster Unionists as a party that transcended the sectarian divide.
There are some downside risks for the Conservatives who might be associated, whether fairly or not, with old fashioned sectarian politics. But against that it makes them look less of a purely English party.
Friday, 25 July 2008
Glasgow East
Not splashed by the media quite as much as some earlier by-election defeats, although I had my first media call shortly after 7.30 a.m.
The FT yesterday was saying that Labour would hang on and this seemed to be the general media view. However, clearly something happened on the day. By the time of the BBC 10 o'clock news the word was that there would be a few hundred votes in it but it looked as if Labour would be out. So it proved to be.
A journo told me that vox pops on the day were showing solid Labour voters shifting to the SNP. Quite why there was this late swing is not clear as there were no negative news events.
It's another blow for Gordon Brown and will make his Warwick 2 negotiations this weekend more difficult. One can expect the unions to argue that they have a package of policies that will shore up the core Labour vote.
I still do not see Brown being removed any time soon. There is no agreed alternative candidate so one is not going to get the required number of Labour MPs nominating a successor. The notion that a group of Cabinet ministers will call on Brown and tell him to go falls apart if he calls their bluff and says he is staying on. Any who resign can be portrayed as disloyal.
What this does increase is the chances of quite a significant September reshuffle with Margaret Beckett brought back in to the Cabinets to steady the troops and provide a media response to any bad news.
The FT yesterday was saying that Labour would hang on and this seemed to be the general media view. However, clearly something happened on the day. By the time of the BBC 10 o'clock news the word was that there would be a few hundred votes in it but it looked as if Labour would be out. So it proved to be.
A journo told me that vox pops on the day were showing solid Labour voters shifting to the SNP. Quite why there was this late swing is not clear as there were no negative news events.
It's another blow for Gordon Brown and will make his Warwick 2 negotiations this weekend more difficult. One can expect the unions to argue that they have a package of policies that will shore up the core Labour vote.
I still do not see Brown being removed any time soon. There is no agreed alternative candidate so one is not going to get the required number of Labour MPs nominating a successor. The notion that a group of Cabinet ministers will call on Brown and tell him to go falls apart if he calls their bluff and says he is staying on. Any who resign can be portrayed as disloyal.
What this does increase is the chances of quite a significant September reshuffle with Margaret Beckett brought back in to the Cabinets to steady the troops and provide a media response to any bad news.
Sunday, 20 July 2008
Fiscal rules to be modified
New Labour's fiscal rules are likely to be modified as the consequences of the economic slowdown hit home. Public sector borrowing was 50 per cent higher in the first two months of the financial year. Public borrowing rose by £9.2 billion last month, well above City forecasts of £7 billion. Borrowing of £4.4 billion between April and July as a postwar quarterly record.
Tax revenues, particularly VAT and stamp duty, are being hit by the economic downturn. In June, national insurance payments fell 8.3 per cent compared with a year earlier, VAT payments fell by 4.6 per cent and corporate tax payments were flat. In an interview with The Times Chancellir Alastair Darling admitted that taxpayers are at the limit of what they are willing to pay to fund public services. He revealed that he told Cabinet ministers this week that there would be no more money for schools, hospitals, defence, transport or policing.
Economists agree that if today's tight public finances are the legacy of past profligacy, it would be unwise to clamp down at the start of a downturn. One of the simplest options would be to raise the arbitrary ceiling on net debt, say to 45 per cent of national income.
The key issue is not the exact figure that is adopted, but whether any changes are introduced in the monitoring of the constraint. At present the Treasury is judge and jury of whether it is abiding by its own rules. Many analysts believe that there should be an independent monitoring body with an obligation on the Treasury to explain its policy if that body thought the rules were being broken - just as the Bank of England has to explain itself if inflation goes outside the target range.
New Labour shifted towards constrained discretion in economic policy rather than a more pure rules based stance. Because fiscal policy is about 'getting and spending' it is more difficult to effectively constrain than monetary policy.
Tax revenues, particularly VAT and stamp duty, are being hit by the economic downturn. In June, national insurance payments fell 8.3 per cent compared with a year earlier, VAT payments fell by 4.6 per cent and corporate tax payments were flat. In an interview with The Times Chancellir Alastair Darling admitted that taxpayers are at the limit of what they are willing to pay to fund public services. He revealed that he told Cabinet ministers this week that there would be no more money for schools, hospitals, defence, transport or policing.
Economists agree that if today's tight public finances are the legacy of past profligacy, it would be unwise to clamp down at the start of a downturn. One of the simplest options would be to raise the arbitrary ceiling on net debt, say to 45 per cent of national income.
The key issue is not the exact figure that is adopted, but whether any changes are introduced in the monitoring of the constraint. At present the Treasury is judge and jury of whether it is abiding by its own rules. Many analysts believe that there should be an independent monitoring body with an obligation on the Treasury to explain its policy if that body thought the rules were being broken - just as the Bank of England has to explain itself if inflation goes outside the target range.
New Labour shifted towards constrained discretion in economic policy rather than a more pure rules based stance. Because fiscal policy is about 'getting and spending' it is more difficult to effectively constrain than monetary policy.
Wednesday, 16 July 2008
Simple as
I'm not an expert on knife crime, but I do not have much time for the 'simple as' solition of locking more youngsters up for longer periods enabling more of them to be criminalised.
What is interesting is what this discussion reveals about the structure of contemporary politics. Although there have been some tragic incidents, and one death of this kind is one too many, it is by no means clear that deaths from stabbing have increased over the last five to six years.
However, the media has focused on this issue with demands that 'something must be done.' As a consequence, the Government is forced into a series of short-term gimmicks which are not properly thought through like the hospital visits proposal. What problems of this kind require is long-term, multi-faceted solutions not quick fixes which inevitably disappoint. But modern politics does not lead us in that direction.
What is interesting is what this discussion reveals about the structure of contemporary politics. Although there have been some tragic incidents, and one death of this kind is one too many, it is by no means clear that deaths from stabbing have increased over the last five to six years.
However, the media has focused on this issue with demands that 'something must be done.' As a consequence, the Government is forced into a series of short-term gimmicks which are not properly thought through like the hospital visits proposal. What problems of this kind require is long-term, multi-faceted solutions not quick fixes which inevitably disappoint. But modern politics does not lead us in that direction.
Friday, 11 July 2008
Didn't he do well?
David Davis is back as the MP for Howden and Haltemprice with a majority of over 15,000 on a turnout of 34 per cent. The Green Party came second. Two of the independents got only eight votes each which must be a record low for a parliamentary election.
As far as the 42-day rule is concerned, I have never seen any convincing evidence that the lack of it has frustrated an investigation, but we are told it might in the future. So is this just the government trying to look tough on terrorists?
The intervention by the former head of M15 in the House of Lords was far more damaging to the government's case than anything that David Davis has done.
As far as the 42-day rule is concerned, I have never seen any convincing evidence that the lack of it has frustrated an investigation, but we are told it might in the future. So is this just the government trying to look tough on terrorists?
The intervention by the former head of M15 in the House of Lords was far more damaging to the government's case than anything that David Davis has done.
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