Have we reached peak Reform?

Some recent polls have suggested a dip in support for Reform.   One swallow does not make a summer, but perhaps something is happening.

Despite the defection of yet another washed up, tax avoiding Tory, KemiKaze does seem to be getting more of a grip on her party,   She has improved at PMQs, admittedly from a low base.

Who watches PMQs?   Not that many, but it does affect the party mood and also media judgments.

Starmer's U-turns have helped her, although I think the whole concept of a U-turn impoverishes politics.  It discourages governments from ditching failed policies.

Badenoch also has a narrative in terms of fiscal conservatism or tackling the welfare bill.   Given that state pensions account for around half of all welfare payments, it would be more convincing if she was prepared to ditch the triple lock, but we all know the electoral politics of that.

The Conservative brand is a well entrenched one, so Reform may find it hard to displace if voters think Farage is a bit like a dodgy second hand car salesman.

Anyway, I am delighted that my copy of the British General Election of 2024 is on its way to me.

Who are the party members?

Lots of fascinating data (if you're into that sort of thing) from the party members project at Queen Mary, University of London: https://esrcpartymembersproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/britains-party-members-bale-et-al.pdf?fbclid=IwY2xjawPRxt9leHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETA5dUZXU2luUVV3Yzk3QWpic3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHoq22_LuKr8v0ccAP850ntyJqxYl2CWbOSWTN-qEXqe4M8DOAobOQAP33s3V_aem_wu0345rfOoflVFJEVSrieg

The study concludes: 'What comes over most strongly, however, is that we increasingly appear to be seeing not just five parties but two blocs – something that, as the British Election Study has recently shown, also appears to be true in the case of voters. On the one side, we have the members of the so-called ‘progressive’ parties (the Greens, Labour and the Lib Dems). On the other, we have the members of the Conservatives and Reform UK.

 There is still variation within the blocs, but there is, in all sorts of ways, something of a gulf emerging between them. Seen negatively, this suggests a worrying degree of polarisation. Seen positively, it suggests that the fragmentation of the party system may not make coming up with a stable government (albeit one vehemently opposed by whichever bloc doesn’t make it into office) as hard as some imagine.

 If members matter to party leaders – and our research since 2015 suggests to us that they do – then those who belong to parties in either of those two blocs could well support the kind of post-electoral (and even, perhaps, pre-electoral) pacts that may make coalition formation, should it prove necessary, easier.

A coalition may not prove necessary, of course. At the time of writing, observers seem convinced that Reform UK will win an overall majority. If that does come to pass, we hope that those same observers won’t give all the credit to the party’s leader, Nigel Farage. Reform’s members didn’t make him leader, but their efforts may well help to make him prime minister. Also, if he doesn’t make it to Downing Street, then the leaders of those parties determined to stop him will, at least in part, have their own foot soldiers to thank.'

Bleak reading for Labour in poll of economists

A poll of 103 leading economists in the FT today makes bleak reading for those  who hope that an economic recovery will lead to a political recovery for Labour.

Key take home messages:

• Economy will not be strong enough for 'working people' to be better off
• Two-thirds predicted more tax increases before the next election: higher taxes are seen as the path of least resistance when back bench MPs push for more spending
• Economic growth will grind along at 1-2 per cent, around 1 per cent in 2026: OBR forecast of 1.4 per cent unlikely to be beaten unless savings are run down
• Respondents were split on how much further the Bank would be able to cut interest rates
• Weak jobs market with unemployment above 5 per cent, companies likely to be stingy on pay
• There will, however, be lower inflation and energy prices

Another poll of voters commented on in the FT show that Starmer and Reeves have worse ratings that Johnson and Truss,   Can people really think that?   The FT thinks that it is the culmination of disillusionment with politicians over many years.

Finland is my choice for asylum

I have decided that Finland is the country I will flee to and seek asylum if a Reform government is elected in the UK.

One reason is that I have a long and positive association with the country.   I first went there when I was 19 and was hosted by a political science student who was entering his second year at uni like me and also shared an interest in media work.  I had my first sauna at his parents' country home and also toured the lake district.

Since then I have made a number of return visits both for holidays and to collaborate with Finnish academics.  I saw Charlton play at Oulu in the north and took my grandchildren to Lapland to see Father Christmas.  It is a relatively cold country which is one of my criteria.

The Finns fought the Russians bravely and effectively in the Winter War, although they lost Karelia.  They have now joined NATO and are fully prepared for any conflict.   They have no illusions about Putin just because he is not 'woke'.

On my last visit I went on an organised trip to a small town.  The mayor was a woman who had immigrated from the former Yugoslavia.   I visited a residential facility for the elderly and I have never seen anywhere so well designed or welcoming.

For a number of years Finns have been declared among the happiest people on the planet.  As the excellent book Finntopia makes clear Finland is not a utopia.   It has its own populist party and recent events have shown there is some racism.  The language is very difficult.  But it is relatively egalitarian like other Nordic states.

If Reform do become the government it would mean living in a country where a substantial proportion of the population had very different values from my own.   Despite living in the UK for almost 80 years, I wouldn't feel at home there any more.

Bland keeps quiet on Labour leadershiip

As the year comes to a close, how is our fictitious South Borsetshire MP Guy Bland coping with the travails of the Labour Party?   Will he be one of those who puts his head above the penetrate to defenestrate Keir Starmer after poor election results in May?

Remember that Bland did not expect to become a MP, but thought that a good showing would boost his career as a public affairs specialist in the charity sector.

Bland's wife Emma has left religious affairs at the BBC and has a successful podcast called Honest to God after the controversial book written by the Bishop of Woolwich in the 1960s.

The couple now have a toddler and they are renting a property in the cathedral close in Felpersham.  Bland thinks that he might have a future in the labyrinthine bureaucracy of the Church of England.   His chances would be enhanced if he could become Second Church Estates Commissioner in the Commons, but Battersea MP Marsha de Cordova shows no signs of stepping down.

It is much harder to defenestrate in the Labour Party than in the Conservative Party.  Eighty MPs would have to declare their wish to replace Starmer.

Bland's view is that any such nove requires deep thought.   He won his seat by something of a fluke and expects to lose it at the next election regardless of who becomes Labour leader.

He thinks Starmer is a serious man in a serious job, but accepts that the electorate wants more in terms of leadership.  He thinks that Starmer would be a good foeign secretary if he could be persuaded to step aside (following the examples of Sir Alec Douglas-Home and William Hague).

He is not going to put his head above the parapet, but he thinks that a Streeting - Rayner team (PM and deputy) would be the best bet.   A change of chancellor would follow.    However, he thinks that the endless media speculation is in part an attempt to portray Labour as a divided party incapable of governing.

The late news of a concession on inheritance tax for farmers has put some of his constituents in a better mood, although he is barred from most of the local pubs.  However, he will go to midnight mass with his wife tonight in something approaching a state of grace. 

Why not go north of the border?

The news that more people are now members of Reform rather than Labour reminded me that I should renew my search for a bolthole in the event of a Reform government. In an analyis of a by-election result in Darlington, Rob Ford from Manchester University pointed out that the 'progressive' vote had split four ways allowing Reform to win the seat. (This does seem to happen less often in the south of England where the Lib Dems often win). As The Economist had pointed out a number of scenarios are possible at the next election, although I suspect that if Reform were the largest party, the Conservative rump would allow them to take office.

One comment said that he would take his dog to the Scottish borders. So what about Scotland? I am of direct Scottish descent in the male line and a graduate of a Scottish university. I even found my clan tie the other day (NB: the Grants were Unionists).

However, I am no great fan of the Scot Nats. I have been following them since 1968 when I had my first article published on Welsh and Scottish Nationalism. I am not a great fan of nationalism in any shape or form. Although the SNP can claim to be 'progressive', they also lack competence, e.g., the fefrries fiasco, falling educational standards, the inability to tackle the admittedly formuidable drug problem in the central belt.

The inhabitants of the Northern Isles do not paticularly see themselves as Scottish. Indeed, the Orkney flag displayed at the top of the page is based on that of Norway. Norwegian is taught as a second language. Planes depart from Grimsetter to destinations like Stavanger and Bergen.

Hoy from Stromness

I know all this because I have made a number of visits to stay with an old friend who could not resist the lure of the isles and got his last job there. He has a splendid view from his home outside Kirkwall, but I prefer the huddled streets of Stromness with the great views of the mountains on Hoy.

As I like cool temperatures the climate would suit me. However, it is a long way even from Aberdeen and while the local hospital is well regarded any advanced medical treatment requires a flight to Aberdeen. It's not necessarily a cheap destination as the ísland economy is doing well. Moreover, I would still be in the UK.

We still need experts

In one of her recent diatribes, tin eared Liz Truss said that people were fed up with experts who were always wrong.  I wouldn't bother with her vapourings, except that her remark echoed that by Michael Gove that 'we've had enough of experts'.

If I took this at face value it would be quite alarming.   I am fortunate enough ti live in a very efficient and innovative NHS trust.  When I felt unwell recently I called the community emergency response service.  A nurse arrived in 20 minutes, checked me over and tried a minor procedure. 

When this didn't work she called her coordinator who told her to call an ambulance.   This arrived promptly with a very helpful paramedic on board.   On arrival at A and E I was immediately sent for a scan and a battery of blood tests.

Three different doctors examined me and then two returned and carried out a minor procedure.  I was then told that I was well enough to go home.  My only disappointment was that the fire brigade didn't take me home which was the service provided for my partner.

Throughout all this time, I was in the hands of experts.   They hadn't gone online and decided that they would be doctors, paramedics, ambulance drivers or nurses for a day.  They had gone through a long process of qualification and monitored experience.   They were experts and caring ones at that.

Now, I suppose the response to that could be 'aqueducts' as in the Monty Python Life of Brian in response to the question, 'What have the Romans ever done for us?'   Doctors (and vets) could be treated as an exception to the general rule.

The populist logic is that experts are part of a technocratic elite that exploit the mass of the population, e.g., scientists claim to believe in climate change because they can get money to study it.   Or they urge people to take vaccines because they profit from them, or at least big pharma does.

On reflection this distrust of experts has deep roots in British culture and history.  We were the first country to industrialise and in large part this was done by trial and error and training consisted of 'sittuig by Nelly.'

Countries like Germany decided to go down a systematic technical education route, hence in the First World War we had to get our supplies of khaki from Germany and after the war was over engaged in industrial espionage to discover the secrets of the German chemical industry, albeit we were helped by German emigres and the formation of ICI.

We need experts more than ever, but also politicians who are prepared to take uncomfortable decisions and that is too much to hope for.