In May my great-granddaughter came from Spain to England for my wedding. The concept of a great-grandfather was difficult for her to grasp, but she was soon calling me 'grandad'.
In this post I have tried to summarise the various forces that threaten her future. At my stage of life it is very easy to take a 'glass half empty' stance and I should emphasise that there are many positive opportunities ahead, not least in her adopted home.
I have not discussed the challenges in any particular order, but it is clearly that AI is one of the most potentially transformative. The analogue world I knew has largely disappeared and the digital world is here.
There has been a certain amount of negative hyperbole about AI with visions of humanoid robots more intelligent than us roaming the Earth. Scare stories about a decline in entry level jobs due to AI were effectively knocked on the head by David Smith writing in The Times. However, we may be nearer the 15 hour week envisaged a century or so ago by J M Keynes and that is going to require some disruptive changes in the economy and society. There will also be many benefits in areas such as health care.
The strength of organised crime relative to the state is an area of concern. In Haiti the gangs seem to be taking control; in Mexico it is a continuing battle; and it is a growing problem in France. If your phone is stolen in London it is likely to enter a chain that will see it rapidly exported by criminals, the same goes for high performance cars. In Spain corruption appears to be widespread. The role of organised crime in illegal migration is there for all to see. The state is increasingly seen as unable to protect its own citizens.
I have great respect for William Hague (I greatly enjoyed being shown round his beautiful garden in Wales by him while his wife took me round their superb library). He recently stated that nuclear proliferation was the greatest threat we face.
How near Iran was to developing a useable nuclear device and how far any efforts in that direction have been disrupted is way above my pay grade. However, if Iran got nuclear weapons (leaving aside the reaction of Israel) Saudi Arabia and Turkey and probably the Gulf States would want them as well. As tensions between Tirrkey and Israel increase, Turkey may decide that it needs that capability anyway.
All the scientific evidence on climate change is tossed aside by know nothings and as a consequence we are not taking the measures we need to take quickly enough. As a result we may have to focus on adaptation, butt that is going to be expensive.
Unfortunately, our political responses to these challenges are becoming less sophisticated. One can understand the despair of young people struggling with the cost of living and seeing public services deteriorate. Belief in the big money tree seems to persist and nostrums like a wealth tax are advanced despite the fact that they have not worked wherever they have been tried.
Populism on the right and to an extent on the left (the proposed Fruit and Nut Party) is flourishing, although there have been one or two setbacks as in Australia and Canada. Frustrated voters are attracted to 'none of the above' alternatives and simple solutions to complex problems.
I still believe in the need for evidence, expertise and effective policies. In a society that is increasingly fragmented we need proportional representation, ideally STV, but constitutional tinkering will not be enough.
But as Shakespeare said, our doubts are traitors. We have to believe that better times are possible, however tough the road ahead.
