Letters to a great-granddaughter (4)

Measures to combat climate change are being opposed by right-wing populists everywhere, not least in the United States.  Admittedly, China continues to build coal fired power stations, but it is also investing heavily in renewables.

Opponents of climate change policies either argue that it is not happening at all or that it is not the result of human activity but is part of a normal long-run weather cycle.

I don't have the time, space or knowledge to thoroughly review the evidence, but recent reports suggest that the recommended 1.5 degree increase in global temperatures is already being exceeded. 

However, let me just feature one study published in the reputable journal Nature yesterday which suggests that the melting of glaciers is accelerating alarmingly with the equivalent of three Olympic swimming pools being lost each second.

These losses can be seen as a canary in the coal mine with implications for the melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and the Antarctic which would lead to a rise in global sea levels affecting vulnerable islands and coastal areas (not to mention flood defences in the River Thames).

What we are also seeing is an increase in the incidence of extreme weather incidents, notably floods.  These had a devastating effect close to my great-granddaughter's home in the Valencia region of Spain.

Admittedly, some of the policy responses to global warming have been defective.   Investing in heat pumps is of little use if houses are not properly insulated.   The UK has the oldest housing stock in Europe and as someone who lives in a 150 year old house, I know how difficult and expensive it is to exclude draughts.

For me carbon capture is still an unproven technology which requires further development to establish that it offers a long-term solution rather than a quick fix.

I also think that some of the direct action taken by climate change activists is counter productive.  Disrupting people's lives does not persuade them of the case for effective policy.

Some young people think that climate change is a real threat to their survival.  If unchecked, it is going to cause some very serious problems and the chances of effective international cooperation are not good.    Firms like BP are under shareholder pressure to invest in fossil fuels rather than renewables.

Recent international developments persuade me that nuclear war is a greater and more proximate threat. Without the US defence umbrella, and its own conventional land forces beset with challenges, Europe might be tempted to resort to a nuclear response to an invasion of its territory.   But the 515 or so nuclear weapons possessed by Britain and France are strategic and they lack the tactical weapons possessed by the United States and Russia.  These are worrying enough, but they are a stage short of all out escalatio.

What does FlyBe tell us about the Johnson government?

British Airways has now submitted a state aids complaint to the EU. I am no expert on the complexities of state aid policy, although in principle one is allowed to boost regional economies. The actual mechanism used by the Government in terms of airport passenger duty may, however, be open to challenge. In political terms the Government would probably welcome a row with the EU that saw it on the side of the regions against Brussels.

The writer on Sanday, Orkney: you can get there by plane, but I used the boat.

The intervention does, of course, raise questions about the Government's commitment to climate change policy. However, those in the south-west and the Scottish highands and islands would argue that the connectivity that Flybe provides is essential to their ability to do business and attract tourists. I must confess that I have a personal interest here as I use Flybe's Birmingham to Aberdeen flights (almost always nearly full) and then connect via Loganair to Grimsetter international airport, Kirwall, Orkney.

The flag of Orkney is based on that of Norway: you can fly direct to Norwegian destinations from Grimsetter.

A Greenpeace spokesman argued on Radio 5 that we should not be supporting unsustainable rural lifestyles. I don't think the growing number of people living in the Orkney Islands, with an economy in which innovation in renewables plays a key part, would see it that way. Island council officials have to fly to the centre of power in Edinburgh: it can't all be done by video links.

However, should one offer a general subsidy to all domestic flights in the UK by adjusting APD? Or should one subsidise particular services that serve a social need, as already happens with Newquay to Heathrow flights by Flybe? The policy objective may be desirable, but there may be more efficient means of achieving it.

Extinction Rebellion

A balanced and informative piece on this phenomenon: Disruption can bring social change

A few observations of my own. I found it interesting that some of the protesters criticised organisations like Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth who were pioneers of direct action tactics on environmental issues. Perhaps they have been overtaken by new forms of action.

In terms of tactics, I did find it odd that public transport was targeted as we need to develop that as part of a climate change strategy. Admittedly, they backed away from disrupting the tube, but what is the problem with the Docklands Light Railway?

The activists claim that the UK Government has done nothing, but it was the first country to pass climate change legislation. Real progress has been made on renewables. Much more needs to be done, but action is also required elsewhere, not least in the United States (some hope), India and China.

The protesters say that their policies are achievable, but certainly not by 2025. For a start, just think of the problems in replacing 24m-26m (figures vary) gas central heating boilers.

Even if the Government did want to engage with them, how does one talk to a movement that has no leadership structure?

'I hope you don't think I wrote this rubbish'

Some years ago Private Eye published a brilliant front cover in which the Queen was reading the speech from the throne and the speech bubble contained those words. Of course, the Queen has to read the speech with an air of studied neutrality.

The Duke of Edinburgh seemed to be very interested in how Our Ken, dresssed up in his mediaeval clobber, would walk backwards down the steps from the throne, but in fact he executed it in an exemplary fashion, surely qualifying him from a grant from the Ministry of Silly Walks (oops, it became a quango under New Labour as the Pedestrian Locomotion Organisation or PLO and has become a victim of the first round of cuts).

I actually became aware that the speech was about to take place when I was having a coffee with a colleague (to discuss business) and a number of Chinese students started pointing excitedly at the television scheme. I therefore missed the appearance of the cap of maintenance which the political journalist Alan Watkins always used to talk up. One wonders how compatible the role of the cap in relation to the Established Church is with the Queen's reference to the welcome she would extend to Pope Benedict later in the year.

The speech was a relatively long one and contained a number of measures, although some of these were bills (the referendum on AV) and others were proposals, i.e., white or green papers (Lords reform). Overall, there were no big surprises, particularly given that the speech and its theme had been leaked (will this be the first 'leak enquiry' of the new Government)?

The Queen's list of forthcoming visits came after the domestic legislation proposals and it is interesting that the one reference to climate change came after this at the start of the 'international' section.

The one proposal that gives me most concern is the bill to make police authorities more accountable. This seems fine in principle, but mayoral elections have thrown up some unusual individuals, most notably in the case of Doncaster which has an English Democrat mayor. If was a professional police officer, I would have concerns about being accountable to an individual with no prior experience of public life or policing practice. It could well happen in a low turnout election.

Finally, I understand that 16 MPs have not yet sworn in (or affirmed). Five of these are Sinn Fein, but among them is Jo Swinson, the Liberal Democrat MP for East Dunbartonshire. More about Ms Swinson later.

Mandy is back

Peter Mandelson will make return to the Cabinet in a major reshuffle to be unveiled by Gordon Brown later today. The European Commissioner for Trade will be made a peer and join the Government as Secretary for Business, sitting in the Lords. John Hutton, the current Business Secretary, will be promoted to Defence Secretary, taking over from Des Browne, who will leave the Cabinet.

This is a very surprising move and marks the apparent end of tensions between Mandy and Gordon, although at one time they were firm friends. Peter Mandelson was forced to resign from the Cabinet twice, but Gordon Brown may think that his undoubted political skills will be of help to him in the run-up to the general election.

In other moves, Geoff Hoon, the Chief Whip, takes over at Transport from Ruth Kelly, who announced last week that she wants to spend more time with her family. Mr Hoon will be replaced by the Brownite fixer and former Chief Whip, Nick Brown. The other Cabinet entrant is Liam Byrne, the Immigration Minister, who will become Mr Brown's enforcer as Cabinet Office minister.

Peter Mandelson will be coming to a diminished Business department as its energy functions will be transferred to a new Department of Energy and Climate Change headed by Ed Miliband. This will also acquire the climate change function from a diminished Defra which looks more like a MAFF Mark II responsible for food and rural affairs.

Margaret Beckett looks likely to return to the Cabinet - in what role is unclear, but possibly as a spokesperson for the government.