Some by-election takeaways

I have known John Curtice since he was a DPhil student at Nuffield and I don't pretend to have his knowledge of elections, not to mention many others.  But here are a few takeaways from last night:

• By-elections are a poor guide to a general election over a year away.   The turnout in all three seats was below 50 per cent, suggesting a lot of Conservatives sat on their hands,
• The Conservatives played the ULEZ card well in Uxbridge, but then the new MP put all the blame on the Mayor which suits Starmer.   No praise for Sunak.
• Labour has never won the seat in this area even in 1997.   This is 'Mon Repos' territory, remember the Betjeman poem abour Ruislip Gardens tube?  It has changed, of course.
• The economy may well recover by next autumn, but this happened in 1997 and the Conservative still lost.   As then, voters are concerned about the state of public services despite historically high levels of taxation.
• The age of the new MP for Selby is not a disqualification, we need his generation in the Commons to tell us what a rough deal they have had.
• Greg Hands tried to spin the results as a victory, the worst effort since the flagship boroughs (copyright Lord Baker).
• Johnny Mercer may think he is an effective attack dog.  He digs a hole and keeps digging.
• The Lib Dems are back in contention in the west country after being punished over Brexit and the coalition.
• It looks as if the electorate are voting tactically to oust the Conservatives