Are Reform voters storming to the polls?

I have been looking at recent local by-election results to see what they say about voter intentions, but I have to admit the picture is a rather confused one: first, because of the vagaries of the first past the post system; second, because of local factors; and, third, because turnout is often low.

On the first point, the Liberal Democrats gained a seat from the Conservatives in Bournemouth with 32.4 per cent of the vote.  Reform came second on 28 per cent and I suspect they took votes from the Conservatives on 27.4 per cent.

On the second point, the New Ham Independents took a seat from Labour, although I am far from clear what they stand for.  One of the best results for Reform was in Trowbridge, which I at first thought was in Wiltshire, but is actually in Wales.   Labour are taking a beating in the polls there, although the Plaid are neck and neck with Reform in the opinion polls.

On the third point, one has to assume that Reform voters would be more motivated to turn out in a general election.

Here in the Royal Spa, Labour won the Clarendon ward yesterday, having lost there to the Lib Dems in the county council elections.   The margin was again very tight between Labour and the Lib Dems with Reform polling around 15 per cent.  In nearby Kenilworth the Greens held on to a seat with 40 per cent of the vote, Reform receiving 18 per cent. This means that the Green-Labour coalition remains in place on Warwick District Council.

Once again we have to remind ourselves that a general election is not imminent and Labour MP are unlikely to vote out their own government so that they can place their seats at risk so that Nigel Farage can be prime minister.

I think it is more likely than not that the Conservatives will have a new leader by next summer.   Replacing a Labour leader is more difficult even given the strength of the northern wind.

The BBC is now taking the line that it is platforming Reform because they are running at around 28-30 per cent in the opinion polls.  I don't recall that rule applying when the Conservatives were in office.   In any case as the Lib Dems have been at around 14/15 per cent on that basis they should get half as much coverage as Reform instead of being almost invisible.

If Reform's policies and personalities were challenged more by the BBC, ITV and Sky it is possible that voters might start to have doubts about their fitness to govern.   However, quite of the lot of the Reform vote is arguably a 'none of the above' vote.  The Tories failed after 14 years, Labour failed after 14 months (!) so why not try something different?

Having said all that, I can still visualise the nightmare of King William V having to welcome Farage as prime minister and I am continuing to consider contingency plans for leaving the country.

Some by-election takeaways

I have known John Curtice since he was a DPhil student at Nuffield and I don't pretend to have his knowledge of elections, not to mention many others.  But here are a few takeaways from last night:

• By-elections are a poor guide to a general election over a year away.   The turnout in all three seats was below 50 per cent, suggesting a lot of Conservatives sat on their hands,
• The Conservatives played the ULEZ card well in Uxbridge, but then the new MP put all the blame on the Mayor which suits Starmer.   No praise for Sunak.
• Labour has never won the seat in this area even in 1997.   This is 'Mon Repos' territory, remember the Betjeman poem abour Ruislip Gardens tube?  It has changed, of course.
• The economy may well recover by next autumn, but this happened in 1997 and the Conservative still lost.   As then, voters are concerned about the state of public services despite historically high levels of taxation.
• The age of the new MP for Selby is not a disqualification, we need his generation in the Commons to tell us what a rough deal they have had.
• Greg Hands tried to spin the results as a victory, the worst effort since the flagship boroughs (copyright Lord Baker).
• Johnny Mercer may think he is an effective attack dog.  He digs a hole and keeps digging.
• The Lib Dems are back in contention in the west country after being punished over Brexit and the coalition.
• It looks as if the electorate are voting tactically to oust the Conservatives

Long Brexit in the Chiltern Hills

The Chesham & Amersham by-election result has produced considerable speculation about the crumbling of the 'blue wall' in southern England.   Here Paula Surridge reflects about the effects of 'long Brexit' that cross pressures electors in their voting choices: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/a-tale-of-two-by-elections/