Unconfirmed press reports suggest that Nigel Farage is open to some kind of agreement with the Conservatives after the next general election. It is certainly possible that Reform could be the largest party but without a majority. My hunch is that this could be a 1974 scenario with a second election following.
It need not be, and probably would not be a formal coalition, more a confidence and supply agreement as Theresa May had with the Democratic Unionists.
Living in Warwickshire, I have seen the spectacle of the Reform Party and its 19-year old leader being propped up by the Conservatives. The make up of the authority is complex, in part because of defections and one suspension (of a Green councillor).
However, when a no confidence motion was introduced to unseat the leader, he survived by one vote as the Conservatives sat on their hands apart from one brave soul who was then suspended for three months (subject to an appeal).
I have seen the future and it doesn't work. Unfortunately, a lot of voters have said 'we've tried the Conservatives and Labour and they don't work, so why not give Reform a try?' I could give plenty of reasons.
The Liberal Democrats seem to be mainly in the minds of voters in terms of Ed Davey's stunts, the man in the wet suit. They would claim to have distinctive policies, but the overall narrative is less clear and discontent appears to be growing (although they are well dug in if one looks at some localities, especially at local government level).
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