Burnham's purge

We haven't seen anything like it since Harold Macmillan's Night of the Long Knives when he sacked seven Cabinet ministers in an unsuccessful bid to boost his fading popularity.

The Lord Chancellor, Lord Kilmuir, had repeatedly told Supermac that his place was at his disposal, but when he was sacked he complained that a cook would be given more notice.

In the Commons then backbench MP Jeremy Thorpe commented, 'Greater love hath no man that he lay down his friends for his life.'

Now the Starmerites (whomsoever they might be) have felt the blade of the King of the North.  Some talented people have been axed. while Lord Sawar (as he now is) has been brought down from Scotland as a reward for the first person to call for Starmer to go.   Enoch Powell said that all political careers end in failure, but his limp performance in the Scottish Parliament elections seems to have been forgiven.

On Sky News's The Wrap last night examples were given of north-west MPs be given preferment or, even it was alleged, the partner of a Burnham backer.

Burnham had better be careful.   Darren Jones has also plunged the knife in by pointing out that the removal of VAT on domestic electricity is unfunded.

It was surely a mistake to remove Nick Thomas-Symonds from the Cabinet Office given his understanding of the complex and delicate negotiations with the EU.

Hail the King of the North!

All the available evidence suggests that Andy Burnham is likely to win the Makerfield by-election tomorrow, although turnout could well be low.

The most likely scenario is that cabinet ministers will press Keir Starmer to stand down by September.  The absence of a contest means that Burnham's rather vague policy ideas will not be tested.

It's a big step up from being a city mayor to running a country as Boris found.  Much of the groundwork for the economic success of Manchester was laid by Burnham's predecessors.

Yes, he did sort the buses out, but his clean air and homelessness policies were less successful.

It's been difficult to make sense of his statements during the by-election, but he does not seem to understand the fiscal rules.   One moment he was promising to recompense the 'waspy women' then he realised that there was a £10 billion bill attached.

Professor Ford reckons that he is offering spendthrift vibes, but his policies will be much more cautious. However, voters will then soon be disappointed.

I would concede that Burnham is emotionally intelligent and voters are more inclined to see him as someone 'like us'.  The difficulty is that dealing with complex international issues and running a country is more demanding than being a bloke you would like to chat to over a pint.  If I was Burnham, I would offer to make Starmer foreign secretary for which there are two precedents.

The Spectator was saying last week what a wonderful leader Kemi Badenoch is, so why is an apparently decent Conservative candidate in Makerfield going to get a one to two per cent vote.   The Conervatives could, however, do quite well in Aberdeen South so their focus will be there.

Euston is the new Finland Station

The arrival of Andy Burnham at Euston Station last week has been compared to that of Lenin at the Finland Station in 1917.  Should he win in Makerfield, even more delirious scenes can be expected as the 'King of the North' arrives to the strains of 'See The Triumphant Hero Comes'.

A likely scenario is as follows:

• Burnham wins in Makerfield, not bigly, but respectably on a low turnout.  The Greens run a token campaign.
• Keir Starmer stands down (there is a case for him being made Foreign Secretary as has happened with two former prime ministers)
• Wes Streeting finds he no longer has 80 supporters and Burnham is introduced to the House by Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband    

I am less impressed by Burnham than many.  I think he has a record as a political chameleon concealing the fact that he is a power hungry opportunist.  He may find himself in trouble with the bond markets.

Even his record as mayor of Manchester is more mixed than is often portrayed.  Yes, he sorted out the buses and made them cheaper, but the homelessness problem has returned (although, to be fair, I am not sure anyone could solve that).    However, voters apparently find him 'approachable'.

I think there is quite a step up from being a successful metropolitan mayor to being prime minister as Boris Johnson found.

Mea culpa, as chair of a commission on elected mayors I am partly responsible, although I think that our report was quite balanced.   I will never forget the subsequent meeting at No.10 when Bozza arrived late, puffing and sweating, only to gratuitously insult Dave Cameron until Hezza told him to shut up.

I will be personally quite relieved if there is a coronation as I did not feel comfortable in the role of the chosen 330,000 who would choose the next prime minister.  However, it was not long ago that the choice fell to MPs and before that the chief whip asked ministers 'Wab  or Hawold'?

The Andy Burnham illusion

My local Labour MP Matt Western belongs to the sensible tendency in the Labour Party.   He writes today: 'My view on the future is that Keir retains my support. He has made an error and apologised for it. I desperately do not want to see our party dominated by infighting and manoeuvres on who will take over. We all saw it in the Tory party and how poorly it presented to the public. We must remain focused on what matters: delivery."

In relation to delivery, I noticed in a vox pop yesterday that a new Reform voter said that Labour had done nothing in two years.   Yet two pieces of legislation alone have been controversial and have far reaching impacts: employment rights and renters' rights.

I heard an Andy Burnham supporter say on the radio that he is more popular with the electorate than other party leaders and not tainted by association with recent 'failures',   But would he remain as popular if he took on the challenging role of prime minister in such dark times?

Remember, remember Patrick Gordon Walker,  Ax shadow foreign secretary, he lost his seat at Smethick in the 1964 general election after an admittedly nasty campaign.  The Labour MP for Leyton was persuaded to stand down and Walker lost the subsequent by-election, large numbers of Labour voters staying at home.

It is said that the NEC may now not block Burnham from standing in a by-election in Merseyside or Lancashire.  But is there now such a thing as 'safe' Labour seat in the north-west?   It could all end in ears for the power hungry opportunist and political chameleon.  

What is driving Reform voters?

For the avoidance of doubt Keir Starmer did not say that Reform's voters or leaders were racist, merely that some of its policies are.

Probably most Reform voters or prospective voters are driven by frustration over the cost of living (especially for basics such as food or energy which hit the poorest harder) or the deterioration in public services.   The mainstream parties are perceived as being unable to tackle these issues.

A small minority are racist, attracted from other movements, and rather more could be described as xenophobic in the sense that they dislike or are prejudiced against those from other countries.   Again some of them might argue that they are simply against uncontrolled migration, especially when it is illegal.

What does concern me is that there appears to be a growth in intolerance of difference and that more people think it is ok to use racist, sexist or homophobic language.

For example, here in Warwickshire the Reform controlled county council has secured its policy to ban the flying of pride flags from County Hall (with the support of the Conservatives).    One might say that that is merely symbolic, except that nothing in politics is merely symbolic, especially when it comes to the display of flags.

The LGBTQ movement in Warwickshire has stated that not only was their Pride festival vandalised (admittedly not for the first time), but there has been an increase in homophobic conduct.   It's not so long ago that male homosexuality was a crime.  Sexual identity is a personal matter.  As Trudeau Snr. said, the state has no place in the bedrooms of the nation.

Andy Burnham's self promotion as a prime ministerial candidate simply gives fuel to the right-wing media and its running dogs such as Chris Mason and allows Labour to be portrayed as a divided party.  Yes, he has been a good mayor of Manchester, but Boris Johnson seemed to be quite a good Mayor of London or at least performed the role well (most of his better ideas came from his deputy and his aides). The King of the North should stay in his realm.

Labour, meanwhile, needs to improve on the 'vision thing', but above all delivery.

No love affair with the beautiful game

It's claimed that England win the World Cup only when Labour are in office, but then there's only one example to back up that argument. However, there's no doubt that New Labour had a love affair with the beautiful game. After all, it was a way of blokes who had become middle class showing they could still connect with their working class roots.

Andy Burnham, now running for the Labour leadership, had an Everton ring tone on his mobile. Alastair Campbell, a long-suffering Burnley supporter, includes 68 references to football in the full version of his diaries as against 55 for the likely next Labour leader, the admittedly wonkish David Miliband. Tony Blair, who claimed to be a Newcastle United supporter, demonstrated his 'man of the people' street cred by doing headers with Kevin Keegan. Gordon Brown, a faithful follower of Raith Rovers of 'they're dancing in the streets of Raith' fame, is said to have limited his small talk to 'Did you see the match?'

It's all a bit different now. David Cameron claims to be an Aston Villa supporter (like Prince William), but it's unclear when he last went to a match. William Hague is into judo. Any awkward foreign customers had better watch out or they will be wrestled to the floor by the Yorkshire charm merchant! Nick Clegg likes to ski and probably judiciously avoids declaring an allegiance to either Sheffield team.

Of course, it was also top level civil servants who were into football. Cabinet Secretary Gus O'Donnell is a supporter of Manchester United: it is believed that his Irish father was as well. At Warwick University he played for the 1st XI and also for a six-a-team dominated by Chelsea supporters called the Blue Strollers.