Where and who is the median voter?

A younger Dave Cameron meets Worcester Woman. The real Worcester Woman was somewhat younger, in her mid-thirties, she worked part-time, had children and drove a Ford Mondeo.

In the course on Economics and Politics I taught for several years with my great colleague Ben Lockwood, we spent two weeks on the Downs theory of the median voter and the subsequent literature. As a shorthand, one might say that spatial models like that of Downs have lost popularity relative to valence models which lead to a greater emphasis on leadership competence, although a methodological problem is that spatial positioning may affect assessments of leaders.

Journalists have engaged in a search for the median voter. At one time it was the anonymous 'Worcester Woman', but in 2010 it was 'Motorway Man' with a specific voter in the constituency of Ed Balls being named. In 2015 the garland went to 'Cautious Cathy' from Nuneaton, a 35-year old mother.

A new study by Professor Paul Webb suggests that voters may be more to the left than we assumed: Left leaning

If I was teaching the module again next year, we would certainly look at this new evidence.

Worcester Woman is back!

The ultimate median voter, Worcester Woman, has been found alive and well in the Midlands cathedral city. Registered childminder Julia Langdale was identified as the Worcester Woman in 1997 when she voted for Labour as she found Tony Blair charismatic. Before then she had alternated between the main parties.

Radio 5 interviewed her this morning. Gordon Brown was dimissed as boring and uncharismatic (clearly politics is seen as a celebrity activity). Dave Cameron was found to be smug and uncharismatic. Nick Clegg clearly didn't feature on her radar at all.

She felt that hard-working middle income families like her were seeing their standard of living eroded by tax increases, making particular reference to fuel and beer. Her whole tone was weary and disillusioned. She was uncertain whether she would vote at all, although felt a sense of obligation to do so.

It is the likes of Julia Langdale who will decide who walks through the door of No.10 on May 7th.