Shift in electorate not good news for Labour

We are all familiar with arguments that the old left-right divide is being replaced by one between those in favour of/benefitting from globalisation and those who have lost out from it. It is reflected in tensions within the Labour Party between the metropolitan faction from Remain voting constituencies and those MPs from the north representing Brexit voting areas.

A paper in the British Journal of Political Science by Will Jennings and others using data from the British Social Attitudes Survey from 1985 to 2012 found that British young people are more right-wing and authoritarian in their views than previous generations. Although they are more socially liberal on matters of equality and women's rights, they are also more consumerist and individualistic on issues such as the welfare state.

The generation that grew up in the period of Conservative rule starting with Margaret Thatcher hold more right-wing views than their predecessors. But 'Blair's babes', who came of age while Tony Blair and New Labour were in power, are even further to the right of the political spectrum. New Labour essentially reinforced Thatcherite policy values, reproducing them and making them more embedded.

There has been a clear rise in negative attitudes towards the benefits system, the unemployed, benefit recipients and the welfare system. Younger people also take a harder line on previous generations, despite crime levels having fallen.

The child benefit row

Denying child benefit to higher rate taxpayers has caused a media storm and disquiet among Conservative activists and backbenchers, despite the fact that relatively few people are 'unfairly' affected, mainly stay-at-home mums although they are a group close to the heart of some Conservatives.

However, it seems that 83 per cent of voters approve, although that is not that surprising given that around that percentage do not lose out from the proposals: Poll

I think David Cameron made something of an error by appearing to offer a married couples tax allowance as a sop. Admittedly, it is in the coalition agreement, but it was supposed to only apply to basic rate taxpayers and the Liberal Democrats might not like it being extended to higher rate taxpayers.

What this particular disproportionate row does illustrate is the difficult politics of reducing the deficit. Given that this particular measure saves only about £1bn, it appears that stopping child benefit at 16 is still on the cards, as is restricting the availability of bus passes. More generally, we are shifting from a universal welfare state to one provided as a safety net for those in need.