I was listening to some of the vox pop on Radio 5 yesterday while I was driving to our other campus to teach crop biology (where I nearly collided in the corridor with Lord Rooker, but that is another story).
The English love a good whinge and moan and they were out in force yesterday. I know that those who ring up Radio 5 are not typical of the nation, having done the late night shift myself on occasions. One sometimes got the impression that the callers (and there are fewer of them than one might think) have either had a few drinks or are crazy or both.
One line was that people were having to work harder for less. I wonder how they would have coped with the standard of living fifty years ago? It was definitely worse, even if the quality of life was better (although apart from crime, I doubt it). Or how would they deal with living on less than two dollars a day, or even less than one dollar a day, as many in the Global South do.
Alastair Darling clearly doesn't do charisma. It was like having the budget read out by an insolvency practitioner who had been handed a particularly difficult case by his boss. It's all very well being a safe pair of hands, but presentational skills do matter in politics.
As for the measures, they were predictable. Additional green taxes, but don't make me pure yet. Above inflation rises on alcohol. But, significantly, no sign of the forecast hike in national insurance payments for those on higher incomes as forecast by one of the Murdoch papers over the weekend.
The real issue is the state of the public finances. Many economists have said that the growth forecasts are too optimistic, which will mean an ever bigger reduction in tax revenues than forecast. Economists have been wrong about the Treasury growth forecasts before, but they could be right this time.
The Conservatives are on quite a good wicket in terms of stressing fiscal laxity when the economy was propsering. But the underlying problem is that all governments are under constant pressure to 'do something' about this or that issue which invariably means spending public money. It would be brave politician who got up and said that people would have to reduce their expectations of public services.
Thursday, 13 March 2008
Monday, 10 March 2008
Power games
An interesting article in the weekend FT Magazine traced the story of Demon Eyes, an amateur football team that provided an unintentional networking device for many young men who rose within New Labour. It led one female Blairite to complain of a 'new lad culture' within New Labour with the bonding confined to males.
The article notes that 'A demonstrable and genuine interest in football - a phoney can be spotted a mile off - remains an essential tool for those working in and around Labour politics.' So I would be all right.
The Major Conservative government included football fans in the two top positions: John Major (Chelsea) and Kenneth Clarke (Forest). David Mellor was also Chelsea (having at one time been Fulham), but chants at grounds alleged that he did unmentionable things in the team's kit.
The Notting Hill Conservatives have little interest in fooball with Dave Cameron preferring tennis. George Osborne feels that he and Dave run offices that feel a lot less like a locker room than Brown's No.10 operation.
But what would be the sport of choice of the Lib Dems (for the Plaid it's clearly rugby)? It would have to be a relatively obscure minority sport. One in which being a team player didn't matter very much, perhaps combining a love of remote rural areas.
All that points to the only sport in which I was anything approaching a competitor: orienteering. But perhaps others can think of something more suitable?
The article notes that 'A demonstrable and genuine interest in football - a phoney can be spotted a mile off - remains an essential tool for those working in and around Labour politics.' So I would be all right.
The Major Conservative government included football fans in the two top positions: John Major (Chelsea) and Kenneth Clarke (Forest). David Mellor was also Chelsea (having at one time been Fulham), but chants at grounds alleged that he did unmentionable things in the team's kit.
The Notting Hill Conservatives have little interest in fooball with Dave Cameron preferring tennis. George Osborne feels that he and Dave run offices that feel a lot less like a locker room than Brown's No.10 operation.
But what would be the sport of choice of the Lib Dems (for the Plaid it's clearly rugby)? It would have to be a relatively obscure minority sport. One in which being a team player didn't matter very much, perhaps combining a love of remote rural areas.
All that points to the only sport in which I was anything approaching a competitor: orienteering. But perhaps others can think of something more suitable?
Sunday, 9 March 2008
Darling's first budget
Alastair Darling is going to revive the use of the traditional red box for his budget rather than the one used by Gordon Brown that was made for him by apprentices in his constituency. The box and Darling's lack of charisma should be appropriate for a 'steady as she goes' budget.
Alcohol taxes can be expected to rise in an effort to tackle 'binge drinking'. There will be some further tweaking of green taxes, but nothing too drastic to avoid disturbing the economy.
The interesting uncertainty surrounds rumours that National Insurance payments will be increased for higher rate taxpayers by 1p with perhaps a 2p increase for those earning over £100,000. This would be an increase in income tax in all but name. Moreover, a 2p increase for those over £100,000 would be a redistributive measure that would be taken under a Blair Government but would cement Darling's reputation with Labour backbenchers.
Alcohol taxes can be expected to rise in an effort to tackle 'binge drinking'. There will be some further tweaking of green taxes, but nothing too drastic to avoid disturbing the economy.
The interesting uncertainty surrounds rumours that National Insurance payments will be increased for higher rate taxpayers by 1p with perhaps a 2p increase for those earning over £100,000. This would be an increase in income tax in all but name. Moreover, a 2p increase for those over £100,000 would be a redistributive measure that would be taken under a Blair Government but would cement Darling's reputation with Labour backbenchers.
Wednesday, 27 February 2008
What will it be like when Dave is in charge?
After nearly eleven years of New Labour we are used to their way of doing things: a somewhat contradictory mix of market liberalism and social authoritarianism, leading to more regulation and an upwards creep in the tax take. Like it or not, it has become familiar as the political context.
I was at a meeting yesterday when the question was 'what will life be like under a Conservative government?' It was a good question to ask as it is a strong possibility, but it was initially greeted with blank stares.
I recently read a long speech by David Cameron on agricultural policy. Leaving aside the partisan swipes about cattle diseases being due to New Labour incompetence, it was difficult to work out what the policy actually was or at any rate how it differed from the existing policy.
There will be policy changes, no doubt, and they may be easier to discern in less complex areas than agricultural policy. But at the moment, when it comes to specifics, I have little more idea what Cameron stands for than Obama.
I was at a meeting yesterday when the question was 'what will life be like under a Conservative government?' It was a good question to ask as it is a strong possibility, but it was initially greeted with blank stares.
I recently read a long speech by David Cameron on agricultural policy. Leaving aside the partisan swipes about cattle diseases being due to New Labour incompetence, it was difficult to work out what the policy actually was or at any rate how it differed from the existing policy.
There will be policy changes, no doubt, and they may be easier to discern in less complex areas than agricultural policy. But at the moment, when it comes to specifics, I have little more idea what Cameron stands for than Obama.
Tuesday, 26 February 2008
The lost leader
Michael Portillo had a ninety minute slot on BBC 4 last night reviewing the story of Thatcherism. I can't say that it contained many new insights, and there was some very familiar footage. Perhaps the highlight was seeing Dave Cameron seeking to acknowledge Thatcher's legacy while distancing himself from her. In such circumstances he always looks like the head prefect having a difficult interview with the head about an outbreak of smoking behind the bike sheds.
One of the 'ifs' of recent political history is Portillo's defeat at Enfield which was the most memorable moment of the 1997 election night. If he had survived, he would have probably become leader and his blend of economic liberalism and social tolerance might have served them better than the succession of leaders they had. There is, however, something a little smarmy about him which can be off putting.
One of the 'ifs' of recent political history is Portillo's defeat at Enfield which was the most memorable moment of the 1997 election night. If he had survived, he would have probably become leader and his blend of economic liberalism and social tolerance might have served them better than the succession of leaders they had. There is, however, something a little smarmy about him which can be off putting.
Sunday, 24 February 2008
The First Commoner
The Speaker of the House of Commons is First Commoner of the land and is not normally a controversial figure. However, the current incumbent is under attack over various expenses issues. He has not broken any rules, but the rules look more generous than those under which many ordinary commoners have to operate. It's a tricky issue when MPs' expenses are under scrutiny with the Speaker playing a leading role.
Some of the friends of 'Gorbals Mick' are arguing that it's a revival of class war by private school educated individuals who went to Oxbridge, aided and abetted by the right-wing press south of the border. Certainly there were those who were unhappy when the usual succession rule was broken when there were two Labour speakers in succession.
There is no shortage of candidates to replace the Speaker, including the rather earnest former politics lecturer and one time Liberal deputy leader, Alan Beith. However, there is no procedure to remove the Speaker before the next general election. If he doesn't go by then, 'Mr Speaker Seeking Re-Election' could find himself facing the 'Man in the White Suit', anti-sleaze campaigner Martin Bell.
Some of the friends of 'Gorbals Mick' are arguing that it's a revival of class war by private school educated individuals who went to Oxbridge, aided and abetted by the right-wing press south of the border. Certainly there were those who were unhappy when the usual succession rule was broken when there were two Labour speakers in succession.
There is no shortage of candidates to replace the Speaker, including the rather earnest former politics lecturer and one time Liberal deputy leader, Alan Beith. However, there is no procedure to remove the Speaker before the next general election. If he doesn't go by then, 'Mr Speaker Seeking Re-Election' could find himself facing the 'Man in the White Suit', anti-sleaze campaigner Martin Bell.
Good News for Darling
Official figures released last week showed that public finances were in a much better state than thought. A surge of income tax and corporation tax revenues in January alongside a large downward revision to government borrowing figures for the end of last year have transformed the assessment of public sector deficits this financial year.
Income tax receipts were 14 per cent higher than last January, while corporation tax revenues were 22 per cent higher, reflecting increases in profitability across the board. However, income taxes were boosted by a 25 per cent rise in receipts from self-assessment which reflects income in 2006-7 and not that earned this year.
Although fears about a more pronounced structural deterioration of the public finances have been allayed to some extent, there is still a pre-budget forecast of a £38bn deficit for the full year.
The Conservatives have been going for Alastair Darling's head, overlooking the rule that a minister is most vulnerable when there is unrest on his own backbenches. Their attacks have simply solidified support for the Chancellor who was already popular among Labour MPs who thought that he took the right course of action in nationalising Northern Rock.
Income tax receipts were 14 per cent higher than last January, while corporation tax revenues were 22 per cent higher, reflecting increases in profitability across the board. However, income taxes were boosted by a 25 per cent rise in receipts from self-assessment which reflects income in 2006-7 and not that earned this year.
Although fears about a more pronounced structural deterioration of the public finances have been allayed to some extent, there is still a pre-budget forecast of a £38bn deficit for the full year.
The Conservatives have been going for Alastair Darling's head, overlooking the rule that a minister is most vulnerable when there is unrest on his own backbenches. Their attacks have simply solidified support for the Chancellor who was already popular among Labour MPs who thought that he took the right course of action in nationalising Northern Rock.
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