Council tax offer less good than it looks

The Conservative proposal a two year council tax freeze looks like an attractive offer to voters against a grim background. However, it is less good than it seems. The freeze would only be available to councils who kept spending increased down to 2.5 per cent and many argue that would only be possible with significant cuts in services.

Moreover, commentators have pointed out that if the Conservatives are as economically responsible as they claim, there should be no tax giveaways at all to sweeten the bitter economic pill. It is also worth noting that the offer would be of least value to the less well off, allowing critics to pile in and claim that this is further evidence that the Conservative commitment to social justice is only skin deep.

The proposal to have an independent budgetary office is one that has been recommended by a number of economists, but it would be only advisory and would have no real power over policy. Indeed, it is very difficult for politicians to surrender control over fiscal policy, given that 'getting and spending' is at the heart of what government does.

The economic crisis has served Gordon Brown well for the time being, narrowing the Conservative lead, although it is still in double figures at 10 to 12 per cent. Moreover, Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling have opened up a lead in economic competence over Dave Cameron and George Osborne.

The financial crisis has overshadowed the Tory conference and denied them much of the media coverage they had been hoping for. Meanwhile, several days have passed without news of plots against Gordon Brown or speculation about how long he will stay in office.

Bozza hits back at terminator

Boris Johnson has hit back at the Governor of California, Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was heard last year describing Bozza's speech as 'fumbling' in a clip widely aired on YouTube.

Now Bozza has got his own back at the Governator in a speech at the Tory party conference by describing him as 'a monosyllabic Austrian cyborg'. I am not sure he would have said that to his face. But perhaps Boris has been taken out of those old Charles Atlas courses that built you up so that you could act when you had sand kicked in your face on the beach (apparently at one time a common social problem).

Yesterday Bozza pretended to (or did) search out Dave Cameron in the audience, yelling 'There you are, Dave'. Although 'call me Dave' likes that form of his name to be used by his acquaintances, and I always use it on this page, he is less keen on its informality now that he is trying to develop the gravitas of a prime minister in waiting.

Actually it's quite cool these days to be a Dave. A TV channel of that name (which to my annoyance displaced UK History on Freeview in the evenings) clearly appeals to a young male demographic with repeats of Top Gear and the like and has been quite a success.

Mixed messages for Dave

So we head into the third of the party conferences with the Conservative lead over Labour reduced to a still comfortable ten points after a 'Brown bounce' from Labour's conference. Interestingly, the latest poll from Glenrothes show Labour and the SNP neck-and-neck. Labour have put up the head of the local secondary school who seems to be a tough cookie.

The latest Populus poll shows that just 56 of Conservatives supporters say that their vote is a positive one for the party, while 44 per cent say it is a vote against Labour. Of course, negative votes still count. However, 81 per cent of the Labour vote is positive and only 19 per cent against other parties. This suggests it is more solid, although that is not surprising when Labour has been largely reduced to its core vote.

Perhaps more interesting is that only 28 per cent of voters say that the Tories have changed much under Dave which suggests that there are limits to the 'decontamination effect'.

Dave has always warned his troops against complacency and has said that the phrase 'Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government' won't be used in Birmingham. It was, of course, one of the most foolish statements ever made in British politics.

Dave's speech will be a difficult balancing act: enthusing his activists, having a pop at Labour, but also reaching out to the broader electorate with a positive message about why they should vote Conservative.

So, farewell then, Ruth Kelly

Ruth Kelly is to leave the government in the impending reshuffle to spend more time with her family and this time it appears to be a genuine excuse - she has a young and large family. Apparently, she asked to leave four months ago, but Gordon Brown asked her to wait until the autumn.

Some commentators this morning have portrayed this as a further blow to Gordon Brown, taking the shine off the success of his conference speech. Whilst it is true that Ruth Kelly appears to have been unhappy with the direction of the Government for some time, the Transport Secretary is hardly a leading figure in the Government.

What this perhaps illustrate is how the media frames any story concerning the prime minister and this is not a problem he can make go away.

Gordon survives the test

Gordon Brown's speech at the Labour Party conference today may be regarded as something of a success, even if the principal effect was to shore up his support within the Labour Party. The speech was better delivered than is usually the case with the prime minister. This was probably because he was speaking from the heart, using illustrative examples from his own life in terms of the importance of good public education and a National Health Service. He eschewed the fashion for scrolling screens with the text and spoke from notes. It was also a nice touch to get his wife Sarah to introduce him.

His main themes were stability and fairness. In terms of stability, he was the serious man for serious times, playing to his strengths. He got in a dig at Dave Cameron by saying that this was no time for novices. In terms of fairness, he was stressing a theme that warms the hearts of Labour activists, but it may also play well with a wider audience in these straitened times. The speech was short on specifics, but there isn't the fiscal scope for many giveaways.

Whether the speech will produce much of a poll bounce remains to be seen. But the prime minister has bought himself valuable time with his party. The conference response to his most likely successor, Dave Miliband, was muted, reflecting the fact that his base in the party is far from being a broad one.

The Two Daves

Dave Miliband and Hazel Blears delivered a coded attack on Gordon Brown's stewardship at the Blairite Progress beanfeast in Manchester last night. Meanwhile, a subtle campaign is going on to 'humanise' Dave as a potential prime minister.

While I was waiting for my takeaway on Saturday evening, I noticed what we would have called a 'yuppie' in the 1980s carefully perusing a long piece in The Times magazine on Dave Miliband.

Much of it was a recycling of familiar material: musician wife; adopted children; dad was a leading Marxist theoretician - great respect for him, but don't share his views. We also got the occasional personal revelation: he has a painting of nude women in his living room. Daring Dave, then. We were also told that he was well on top of his briefs in the Foreign Office and could handle awkward customers like the Serbian foreign minister.

However, the most interesting part of the article was the comparison with Dave Cameron. They were born 15 months apart, both have a first in PPE from Oxford, both married creative women, both became MPs in 2001. Admittedly, Dave M. went to a comprehensive rather than Eton and one, he tells us, with a 'sense of edge'. Dave lives dangerously.

Dave M's take on Dave C was that he is very fluent, but he lacks depth and that his commitment to equality of opportunity and social justice was superficial - or at least advocated the end without willing the means. The charge that Dave C is persuasive but shallow is one I have heard before.

So perhaps we shall have the Battle of the Daves at the next general election.

So, farewell then, Alan Johnson

Alan Johnson has ruled himself out of any Labour leadership contest, thus reducing the number of 'safe pair of hands' candidates and by implication increasing the chances of Harriet Harman as a compromise candidate.

I thought that Dave Miliband's endorsement of Gordon was less than ringing (Dave seemed to be involved at an unexplained event at a semi-detatched house, although it looked no more riduculous than Gordon's staged arrival in Manchester in front of an enthusiastic claque of about twenty Labour activists). Anyway, Dave said something to the effect of 'going forward under the leadership of Gordon Brown'. Going where or for how long was not clear.

The clear message from the Labour hierarchy is that Gordon should not be dropped in the middle of a financial crisis where his interventions have been timely and well considered. The danger time will be after the May European and local government elections when time is running out for Labour. BTW, one Labour MEP told me yesterday she is worried about BNP gains in the context of a low turnout in the European elections.

Gordon isn't looking good. Can't something be done about the shadows under his eyes, even if they are the result late nights saving the nation?

Still, he does look like a serious act compared to Nick Clegg. As the FT remarked, the Lib Dems tried jolly (too jolly), then they tried mature (too mature) and now they have gone for Cameron lite.

They went on to argue the Lib Dems are a bit like the tethered balloon they had at their conference. You ascend, get a vague view of hopeful distant shores, wobble about a bit and then descend to earth.