Why MPs should go on holiday

The decision to start the Easter recess has attracted some criticism, but prolonging the session would not lead to a Brexit solution in the short run. If that can come from anywhere, it will be from the talks between the Government and the Opposition, although it is a very slim hope given the distance between them and the risk of splitting their own parties.

MPs are not going to make good decisions when they are exhausted and have been operating in an emotionally supercharged atmosphere. They need time to reflect. They will also not be 'on holiday' but engaging with their constituents, although that could be a rather fraught process. The recess has also been truncated with MPs returning the day after Easter Monday.

Britain Beyond Brexit

The introduction to this forthcoming book can be read free online here: Britain Beyond Brexit

It's uncertain what happens after a no confidence vote

A very timely review of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act and the issue of confidence motions: Public Administration Committee

Should a vote of no confidence in the Government be passed, it is unclear what would happen next: 'The Act provides no guidance on what occurs during the 14-day period following an Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 no confidence motion being passed. As the Clerk of the House told us, what occurs during this period is a matter politics, and not of procedure. Evidence to this inquiry and the Cabinet Manual set out that the Prime Minister would be expected to continue in office unless someone else could command the confidence of the House.'

'If someone else could command the confidence of the House, the Prime Minster would be expected to resign. Not doing so would risk drawing the Sovereign into the political process, something the Cabinet Manual is very clear it intends to avoid. At any point during this period, a motion of confidence in Her Majesty’s Government under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 could be put down and that that would prevent the election. After 14 days a general election would automatically follow.'

Difficult issues surrounding a second referendum

Alan Renwick and Meg Russell take a long, cool look at some of the difficult issues that surround a second referendum: Key questions

They reckon that it would take at least 22 weeks to hold a referendum which would require an Article 50 extension. There are tricky issues in relation to next May's European Parliament elections.

Probably the most difficult issue is how a referendum question should be structured. They state, 'There is no perfect system that would allow all voters to express their preferences and guarantees an unambiguous result.'

Labour's minority government ploy

John McDonnell has suggested that Labour could form a minority government if Theresa May's Brexit deal is rejected by the House of Commons, as seems likely. Labour would first have to defeat the Government in a vote of confidence. This would require the support of the Democratic Unionists. That seems unlikely to me, if it meant ushering in even a minority Labour Government. They would be more likely to abstain.

However, let's suppose that Labour did win. The Queen would then send for Mr Corbyn and he would have 14 days to form a minority government. Labour has already held talks with the Scottish Nationalists, although they disagree over freedom of movement. Caroline Lucas would presumably support Labour, as would Plaid Cymru. The Liberal Democrats would certainly demand a second referendum, something that Mr Corbyn does not want. If the Labour Government was defeated on a vote of confidence, there would then be a general election which is what Labour says it wants anyway.

It's an interesting scenario, but an unlikely one. What is possibly being underestimated is the 'Norway for now' option advocated by Nick Boles gaining more traction.

Jumping the Gun

You have to laugh at last night's Evening Standard front page. All the posturing by ERG Brexiteers has ended up with them looking foolish. Tactically the moment to challenge Theresa May would be when she loses (as seems very likely) her Commons vote on her plan. Mind you, her popularity is going up with the public and she is giving some attention to technological solutions to the border issue.

Captain Mainwaring is a rather ambiguous figure: pompous and with poor judgment, but also heroic in a low key way and in that sense an embodiment of the much vaunted 'Dunkirk spirit.'

It is certainly no help when one country is negotiating against 27 and a tactically astute Commission. The idea that a prime minister committed to Brexit could somehow face down the EU is a fallacy in my view.

Nothing will satisfy the DUP

Nothing that Theresa May can offer the DUP will satisfy, reckons Northern Ireland specialist Jon Tonge: Even turning up on bended knee with another billion pounds won't do it

So that leaves three outcomes: trying to get a better deal from Brussels; a general election; or a second referendum. (One might add a fourth: a Brexiteer Conservative PM who goes for a 'Dunkirk spirit' no deal).

The DUP has not really done anything to enhance sympathy for Northern Ireland in England as they appear to be intransigent and backward looking. No doubt they would say they are protecting the interests of their constituents who continue to return them with (in most cases) big majorities. However, more vision might protect their interests better in the longer run.