Article on CBI free to view

My article on recent challenges at the CBI should be available free to view for a month: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-923X.13295

What will happen to the CBI?

 My thoughts here: https://politicalquarterly.org.uk/blog/the-crisis-at-the-cbi/

Johnson's unpopularity

A few salient points about Boris Johnson from Rob Ford's Swingometer blog.

With Boris Johnson’s shock resignation from Parliament returning him to the headlines, the Conservatives once again have a 'Life of Brian Problem'. A sizeable chunk of Conservative MPs and members believe Boris Johnson is the Messiah. Another sizeable chunk see Johnson not as the Messiah, but as a very naughty boy.¹ This argument has broken out multiple times since ITV’s revelations of parties in Downing Street during lockdown began the long and ugly process of Johnson’s decline and fall. Here we go again.

While Conservative politicians struggle to weigh the merits and flaws of Johnson, the public do not. Johnson wasn’t a popular politician when he led the Conservatives to victory in 2019, he certainly wasn’t popular when forced from office last summer, and he isn’t popular now. There is no great yearning for his triumphant return. His impact on perceptions of his party has been entirely negative for close to two years. Electorally, he is an albatross around the neck of his successors.

Johnson’s unpopularity is not new. Though he won a large majority in December 2019, he was not personally popular before or during that campaign. Johnson is usually contrasted positively with Theresa May, the ‘Maybot’ of 2017. Yet Johnson was less popular at every point of the 2019 general election campaign than Theresa May had been at the equivalent point in the 2017 campaign (see figure 1). And it was May who did most of the work of attracting Leave voters to the Conservatives’ banner, in particular achieving large swings in the ‘red wall’ where in most cases she fell short. But in doing so she set up Johnson’s subsequent victory.

The collapsing green wall

Never mind the blue wall and the red wall.  Is the Conservative 'green wall' collapsing?

A survey of over 1,000 in England's 100 most rural constituencies for the Country Land and Business Association revealed a 18 per cent swing away from the Conservatives and a 16 per cent boost for Labour compared with the 2019 general election.   The Liberal Democrats won just 13 per cent of the support of those polled.

If replicated in 2024 20 of the most 96 rural seats held by the Conservatives would change hands.    Among the most vulnerable are Defra farming minister Mark Spencer (Sherwood); Jacob Rees-Mogg (North East Somerset); Liam Fox (North Somerset); and Jeremy Hunt (South West Surrey).

More here: https://www.cla.org.uk/news/rural-wall-collapsing-as-conservative-support-in-rural-england-falls-by-18-points/

Who will voter ID hurt?

Political scientist Phil Cowley gives his views on the voter ID issue: ' It won't be as big a problem as the raw figs appear, because turnout is low anyway and the sort of people who vote in local elections are the sort who will either have ID or go back home to get it.  [I’m not so sure about that].

It will still be a problem, with multiple vox pops with disgruntled voters, and enough to create a storm. These will not all be left-leaning young people either; suspect plenty of pensioners will get caught out.

While I don't personally accept the arguments for voting ID (esp in a country without ID cards), they do not, to many voters, sound outrageous.  This is especially true of the "there are so few cases of it" claim, where the obvious "but how would you know?" retort works.

If the policy isn't changed before the General Election, it will be a much bigger problem then. It won't be changed before the General Election.

I do think this is being driven by perceptions of political advantage, rather than genuine concern about electoral integrity.  My suspicion (and here I really am just guessing) is that it may end up being much messier in partisan terms than people suspect; it would be ironic if lots of Conservative voters got stuffed by it.

It will work in all sorts of ways, including resources going towards ensuring voters have ID, that otherwise would be spent elsewhere. 11. One effect (ironically) might be to drive even more people towards postal votes.'

Can the CBI survive?

The crisis at the CBI has deepened following further disturbing revelations and a number of leading firms have resigned.   They include Aviva, BMW, Jaguar Land Rover, John Lewis, Mastercard and Vodafone.

The CBI claims to speak for 190,000 businesses, but the number is boosted by the fact that it has a hybrid membership model made up of individual businesses and trade associations.  Hence it can claim to represent the 46,000 members of the National Farmers' Union.

It is difficult to work out how many individual companies there are in membership, but the Financial Times estimates there are about 700.   These companies pay the bulk of the £20m subscriptions.  It is thought that some companies pay over £100,000 a year.

The CBI has now suspended activities until June, but can it recover?   Who else can speak for business? MakeUK and HospitalityUK effectively represent their sectors.  The Institute of Directors have individual members.   The British Chambers of Commerce are made up of local chambers of varying strength and largely speak for smaller businesses.

If the CBI disappeared, it would have to be reinvented.  Business interests are in many ways divergent, but there are common concerns about macro economic policy such as corporate taxation.   However, a new organisation based on big businesses might lack legitimacy.

The CBI in crisis

The CBI has suspended all its external events including its annual dinner after it deals with allegations of rape, sexual harassment and other misconduct at then organisation.

A number of members have distanced themselves from the CBI, some saying that they are reviewing their membership.   Of course, it could give them a convenient excuse to leave.

The allegations are being investigated by a law firm, but there are deeper structural problems at the voice of British business.

These can be dated back to the late 1960s when it decided to become a de facto Confederation of British Business by admitting retailers and other non-manufacturing firms as full members.  Although that may have boosted income as the manufacturing sector declined, it diluted the CBI's voice as a spokesperson for manufacturing.   That vacuum has been partly filled by MakeUK, formerly the Engineering Employers' Federation.

The CBI reached the peak of its persuasive power in the 1970s as a part of a tripartite arrangement for economic policy.  Its voluntary prices initiative helped to shore up the Heath Government's prices and incomes policy.  The 1974-79 Labour Government often referred to the 'Government, the TUC and the CBI' in the Queen's Speech.

As far as Mrs Thatcher was concerned, the CBI was a relic of harmful corporatism and its influence waned.  It did recover some ground under the Major Government and New Labour, but government increasingly consulted directly with leading firms, sometimes formalised in business advisory councils.

With business being overwhelmingly remain, Boris Johnson had little time for their views as he expressed with an expletive.  

Weathering this crisis and remaining a credible voice of business is going to be challenging.