Have we reached peak Reform?

Some recent polls have suggested a dip in support for Reform.   One swallow does not make a summer, but perhaps something is happening.

Despite the defection of yet another washed up, tax avoiding Tory, KemiKaze does seem to be getting more of a grip on her party,   She has improved at PMQs, admittedly from a low base.

Who watches PMQs?   Not that many, but it does affect the party mood and also media judgments.

Starmer's U-turns have helped her, although I think the whole concept of a U-turn impoverishes politics.  It discourages governments from ditching failed policies.

Badenoch also has a narrative in terms of fiscal conservatism or tackling the welfare bill.   Given that state pensions account for around half of all welfare payments, it would be more convincing if she was prepared to ditch the triple lock, but we all know the electoral politics of that.

The Conservative brand is a well entrenched one, so Reform may find it hard to displace if voters think Farage is a bit like a dodgy second hand car salesman.

Anyway, I am delighted that my copy of the British General Election of 2024 is on its way to me.

19-year old leader says Tories and Lib Dems are toast

The 19-year old leader of Warwickshire County Council strode confidently on to the steps of Shire Hall this week and predicted that the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats were finished.

This seemed a slightly odd claim given that he had been elected leader in a 23-23 tied vote against a Liberal Democrat, the Reform chair of the council using his casting vote.

My confidence in his ability to lead the cash strapped council was not enhanced when he proposed spending £190k on special political assistants to come up with new ideas.   He said that council officials has not responded to a challenge to come up with fresh ideas, but their job is to implement the plans of the political leadership.   Evidently these do not exist.

In addition local councils are effectively agents for implementing existing legislation and government policies.  Thus, county councils may assess individual SEND cases differently, but they have to have an effective SEND policy - which costs a large part of their budget along with adult social care.

Leaving aside the fact that a general election is three or four years away (despite the predictions from the Goodwin Sands that Labour will somehow spontaneously combust), the Lib Dems seem to be holding their own in local by-elections while the record of Reform is patchy, losing some seats they have had to defend.

As for the Conservatives, their still have a brand.   At some point they will decide that Kemi Kaze is not the answer and will opt either to appeal to Reform voters and appoint Generic (who knows how to do a Tik Tok stunt) or decide to be a One Nation party again and elect James Not So Cleverley (whose appeal is that he is sold rather than clever).

Or they get Penny Mordaunt back and she could point both ways.   In any event they are not finished.

BTW, I have one thing in common with Councilllor Finch.   Anyone who can work out what it is will win a small prize (yet to be determined).

Rishi Sunak the motorists' friend

The Conservatives think that the ULEZ issue could badly damage Labour in London and are hoping that a more general appeal to motorists across the country will win them votes.  Given that there is evidence of voter concern about climate change and other green issues, they need to be careful.

Lord Hayward, a Tory peer and veteran pollster, said in The Times that the “politics of the motor car” would have an “impact on a lot of people’s voting intentions and it is going to be something the Tory party focuses on”.

Analysis by The Times shows that one in five of Labour’s London constituencies is a marginal seat — 13 out of 49. Of those, two are already in an Ulez zone and 11 will be by August. 

Potentially the most vulnerable Labour MP in London is Jon Cruddas, who holds the Dagenham & Rainham constituency with a mere majority of 293. He has been publicly critical of the expansion of Ulez, saying that it is not fair to do it during a cost of living crisis. Another marginal seat is Ilford North, which is the constituency of Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary.'

An economist’s critique

Meanwhile, economics guru David Smith criticised ULEZ midweek in the paper.    Following Adam Smith, 'Good taxes should meet the conditions of fairness, certainty (people should know how much they must pay), convenience (taxes should be easy to pay) and efficiency (collection costs should not be too high relative to revenue).

The £12.50 daily charge for people driving cars within the zone, when it is expanded to all London boroughs in just over a month’s time, plainly fails the fairness test.

A Nissan Micra with a 1 litre engine, first registered in the early 2000s, will have to pay the charge, while a more recent 4.2 litre petrol Jaguar will not. An eight-year-old small diesel hatchback will pay it, while a newer massive diesel-guzzling SUV, the kind you often see on the school run, will not.

Not all older cars are driven by people on lower incomes, but the correlation is close. Unlike London’s congestion charge, which offers a 90 per cent reduction for residents within its zone, anybody moving their non-exempt car, perhaps to a parking place nearer their home, must pay it in full. Policing it requires a network of cameras, which has Big Brother implications, and the infrastructure has been costed in the hundreds of millions, calling into question its tax efficiency.

Nobody would argue with improving air quality in London but there are better ways. Tim Leunig, who as a Treasury adviser was instrumental in the introduction of Sunak’s furlough scheme, has suggested some, including requiring people to have compliant cars when they change their vehicles, that do not hit them immediately.'

I would suggest that people read my book Autos, Smog and Pollution Control but even a second hand copy now costs over £100!

Some quick points:

1. ULEZ is aimed at ground level (substratopsheric) air pollution, not climate change.
2. There is good evidence that air pollution from vehicles is impairing Londoners' health.  OK, the underground may be even more of a risk.
3. ULEZ would benefit from a more generous scrappage scheme, but the Government has turned down a request for additional funds saying it is a devolved matter.
4. In areas like Uxbridge transport into London is acceptable, but more needs to be done to improve  local links.

The collapsing green wall

Never mind the blue wall and the red wall.  Is the Conservative 'green wall' collapsing?

A survey of over 1,000 in England's 100 most rural constituencies for the Country Land and Business Association revealed a 18 per cent swing away from the Conservatives and a 16 per cent boost for Labour compared with the 2019 general election.   The Liberal Democrats won just 13 per cent of the support of those polled.

If replicated in 2024 20 of the most 96 rural seats held by the Conservatives would change hands.    Among the most vulnerable are Defra farming minister Mark Spencer (Sherwood); Jacob Rees-Mogg (North East Somerset); Liam Fox (North Somerset); and Jeremy Hunt (South West Surrey).

More here: https://www.cla.org.uk/news/rural-wall-collapsing-as-conservative-support-in-rural-england-falls-by-18-points/

Farmer support for Conservatives falls

Farmer support for the Conservatives has fallen below 50 per cent for the first time in living memory.  A survey by Farmers Weekly shows that just 42 per cent would vote Conservative if there was a general election tomorrow.

This compares with 57 per cent who said they would vote Conservative a year ago and 72 per cent in 2020.

Those farmers leaving the Conservatives are split almost equally between Labour and Liberal Democrats, each attracting 23 per cent of the farming vote.

In Scotland 38 per cent backed the Conservatives, followed by the SNP at 30 per cent.   In Wales 44 per cent said they would vote Conservative.   Labour and the Liberal Democrats got 19 per cent each and Plaid Cymru 15 per cent.

Owner occupiers were more strongly Conservative at 56 per cent, but their support among tenant farmers was just 22 per cent.   This group preferred the Liberal Democrats.

If these trends continue, they will not help in blue wall seats vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats.  Apart from farmers, there are many contractors and suppliers who depend on agricultural prosperity.

Labour voters less likely to get vaccinated

Perhaps counter intuitively, Conservative voters are more likely to get vaccinated against Covid-19 than Labour voters.  Some of this can put down to socio-economic and demographic differences, but there is still an effect after these are controlled for.  Why this should be so is unclear, given that in the US it is Republicans who are less likely to get a jab (and indeed Trump got booed by his own supporters when he revealed that he had had a booster).  It may be that some Labour voters do not trust messages from a Conservative Government: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/conservatives-are-more-likely-to-be-vaccinated-than-labour-supporters/

Farmer support for Tories slides

Farmers are traditionally Conservative supporters, but a poll for Farmers Weekly shows that support has fallen to 57 per cent with farmers complaining that the Government does not understand their needs and problems.   The main beneficiaries are the Liberal Democrats, although only up to 17 per cent, admittedly more than their current national polling level: https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/farm-policy/farmer-support-for-conservatives-on-the-slide-fw-survey-reveals

Historically large scale farmers have been overwhelming Conservative supporters with some holding posts in their constituency associations.   Smaller scale farmers, particularly in remoter areas, have been more inclined to support the Liberal Democrats and the Nationalist parties.

Could this be a factor in the North Shropshire by-election?

What are the limits of partisan identity?

Some interesting new research on partisan identity: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/voters-brexit-and-the-limits-of-party-loyalty/

Voters who identified strongly with the Conservatives before the referendum, for example, followed the party in becoming more Eurosceptic as the party tacked in that direction. And voters who joined the Conservative Party just after the referendum brought their other views in line with the positions of the party: they soon became more hostile to economic redistribution, for example.

Partisan identities still matter, even in countries, like the United Kingdom, marked by increased electoral volatility and the ongoing decline of traditional political loyalties.

All of this suggests that voters are still influenced by major policy debates. On high salience issues, party loyalty has real limits. Voters seem to care about at least some policies.

How should one choose a prime minister?

This blog post from Tim Bale looks at the selectorate of Conservative Party activists that will choose the next prime minister. Unsurprisingly, they are neither demographically or ideologically representative of the population as a whole. Party activists have been called a zealocracy: Party members who will elect prime minister

This has attracted plenty of objections, but how one would do it differently? One argument is that it should be left to MPs who at least know the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates. But does this give too much power to a much criticised political class?

Some would argue that the selection of a new prime minister should lead to a general election. But that is to treat the UK as a presidential system which it isn't. Some would say it is in effect. However, following such a rule would undermine cabinet government even further.

Of course, there may well be a general election within the next year anyway, either from a position of strength or weakness for the new prime minister.

A crisis for both parties

A very interesting blog post by Deborah Mabbett on the threats facing the existing party system, suggesting that the large two party share of the vote in 2015 was an aberrant result, rather than an indication of a reversion to two party politics: A crisis for both parties

An interesting comment is made about how both parties have an interest in maintaining a two party duopoly, although whether they can achieve that is another question. It reminds me of the first research I did in the late 1960s on the insurgent Scottish National Party in the two new towns of Cumbernauld and East Kilbride.

What was evident was that both the traditional parties felt threatened and were prepared to cooperate to defend the conventional political spectrum.

The deteriorating fabric of UK politics

With the 13th candidate announcing for the Conservative Party leadership, we now have a baker's dozen wanting the poisoned chalice and eager to join the growing list of Tory leaders brought down by the European question. It's even possible that some candidates will only get their own vote as their nominators may not vote for them. One would think that credible candidates should be required to produce more than two signatures.

Of course, it's a bit like candidates who say they are running for US president but really hope they might be selected as a candidate foe vice-president. Some of them are hoping to get Cabinet posts in returning for pledging their supporters at a later stage (who won't necessarily vote as recommended anyway).

While this comic opera continues, a solution to Brexit is as far away as ever. Indeed, it may no longer be possible to compromise on a soft Brexit that wins grudging acceptance from both sides of the argument. The hard core remainers continue to call for a second referendum, although I don't see this as a viable option if it ever was, while Brexiteers want a no deal exit regardless of the resultant damage which they would see as scaremongering or at worst short term. The EU will not budge on the negotiated settlement, although there is room for manoeuvre on the political declaration.

One possible scenario is a no confidence vote in a new Conservative PM followed by a general election which would probably produce another hung Parliament. One shouldn't get carried away by current poll results as a general election is at least a few months away and getting a quarter of the vote doesn't necessarily get you very far under a first past the post system as other insurgent parties have found in the past.

The threat of a successful bid for Scottish independence has increased. If disentangling a relationship that has lasted for short of 50 years has proved difficult, dismantling one that has lasted over 300 years will be even more challenging, particularly if an independent Scotland was admitted to the EU.

The polarisation in British politics and society may now be hard to overcome and that is not a very happy situation, to say the least. Of course, it's not just about Brexit, but a wider clash between different value systems involving, for example, 'nowheres' and 'somewheres', or between those who are social conservatives/economic interventionists and the more liberally inclined.

If I was younger, I would be thinking about leaving with possible destinations being the western seaboard of the United States (where I have lived and worked), British Columbia (where I nearly went) or Western Australia. As it is, I am stuck with the likelihood of a British version of American culture wars.

'Costcutter' election leaflet is disingenuous

The Conservatives are running their EU election campaign on the cheap, given that many of their activists and MPs disapprove of the elections being held and may not even vote for their own party.

I don't find the Conservative leaflet which arrived this morning much more impressive than one offering me a special deal on baked beans. If, as is stated, 'The only party which can get Brexit done is the Conservative Party' why are they talking to Labour? Moreover, many Conservatives think that the backstop in the deal is a trap and what is on offer is BRINO (Brexit in Name Only). Indeed, they argue that it is worse than current arrangements because the UK would have to accept EU rules without having a say in shaping them.

I think Brexiteers would be better off accepting the current offer now and challenging it later if needs be. At least the process would have started.

It is stated that Nigel Farage is 'standing for personal gain'. I am no fan of Nigel Farage, but I do accept that he genuinely believes that the EU is a bad thing and Britain would be better off out of it.

It is stated that if Labour top the poll it would take Jeremy Corbyn 'closer to the Downing Street'. I doubt it; in any case, I expect the Brexit Party to top the poll. Turnout will be around the normal level of 35 per cent, most likely (admittedly tricky to forecast). In some ways the Peterborough by-election will be more significant as it looks as if there will be one 'People's Vote' candidate'.

The Government intends to introduce the withdrawal bill, but I can't see it getting very far, even if an amendment is passed to remove the backstop which the EU would not accept.

My nightmare scenario would be this. May is finally forced out in June. A hard line Brexiteer is elected as Conservative leader (it could be Bozza, but Raab is gaining traction). The new PM goes to Brussels and demands a renegotiation of the agreement. The EU falls about laughing. PM returns to Britain and signals a no deal Brexit. The Government is defeated in a vote of no confidence. A general election is held and another hung Parliament is returned. Deadlock.

Why Mrs May and the Conservatives are survivors

For the Conservatives being in power, or at least in office, is the number one priority. An excellent article on why Mrs May and the Conservatives are survivors: Dead woman walking?

If I had a pound for every time I have heard or read that Mrs May was a dead woman walking or would be facing a leadership challenge by the end of the week, I could afford a weekend away in Lynton.

The Tory membership crisis

Tim Bale discusses the Tory membership crisis: ageing, not very representative of the population and not very active. They can't mobilise the troops on the ground in the way that a reinvigorated Labour Party can: Membership crisis

Whether his prescriptions for making things better would help is open to question, not that I could come up with any better ideas. In particular, it is difficult to appeal to younger voters when the market economy is not delivering for them. There is one of those sea changes in the political mood taking place that Jim Callaghan identified in 1979.

Jeremy Corbyn was right to suggest last week that the centre point in the political spectrum is not fixed and can be shifted. Margaret Thatcher tried to shift it to the right, with limited success given that voters had an attachment to the welfare state and in particular to the NHS. She was helped as much by an opposition in disarray as anything else.

What the Conservatives are good at is clinging on to office when the odds are against them. However, they are so divided and Brexit is in such a muddle that even that is open to doubt.

Political posters

Some classic political posters here: Posters

The Conservative ones seem to be more effective, even if they are misleading. Remember 'Labour Isn't Working'? 'Life's Better Under the Conservatives' captured the mood of an era, even if the country was facing serious problems of economic competitiveness.

President Dave offers leadership

Leadership was a central theme of David Cameron's speech to the Conservative Party conference this afternoon: leadership provided by him in difficult times. Apparently even the podium looked presidential.

It's a reasonable enough strategy given that the prime minister is the most popular of the political leaders (well in England anyway), not a very tough barrier to surmount. And he does run ahead of the party.

David Cameron also paraded his own liberal credentials, supporting gay marriage and emphasising the importance of overseas development aid even in tough times, something not many Conservatives - or voters - are keen on.

As I drove up to Yorkshire listening to the speech I passed a pub offering 'credit crunch lunches'. It is not easy to offer a positive message in such perilous times. But the prime minister emphasised the need for a 'can do' spirit to overcome excessive pessimism.

The speech was a bit short on content, but what was needed was to provide as rousing a message as was possible in the circumstances and that was largely achieved.

Tories could do deal with Democratic Unionists

All the focus in 'hung Parliament' discussions has been about the Liberal Democrats and occasionally the Nationalists, but the Democratic Unionists have been relatively ignored. However, if the Conservatives fall just short of an overall majority, they could provide enough support to keep them in office, bearing in mind also that the likely five Sinn Fein MPs will not turn up in Westminster.

Certainly Dave Cameron thinks he can seal the deal: Deal (Sam Cam fans should note that this report contains a picture of her with her hair in considerable disarray). The price would be safeguarding public expenditure in Northern Ireland which he had previously implied he intended to cut back. However at £200m the price is not that steep for relative security in office.

Dave has made it clear that he would rather head a minority government than do a deal with Nick Clegg. This perhaps explains why Clegg has now said that electoral reform is now not a precondition of agreement, whereas one might think it was the key demand for the Lib Dems. There are increasing signs from the polls that the Clegg bubble is bursting as Lib Dem policies come under close scrutiny in the polls.

Chris White, Conservative

In the last of the candidate profiles for Warwick and Leamington, we look at the Conservative candidate, Chris White, who fought the seat unsuccessfully in 2005.

If one wanted a carcicature of a totally unsuitable Conservative candidate for Warwick and Leamington it would be someone in a union jack waistcoat who was obsessed with the Common Fisheries Policy (Leamington is about as far as you can get from the sea in England).

I have had the opportunity to have a number of long conversations with Chris White over the past year and he is the opposite of such a person. He is a cerebal, thoughtful person who is prepared to listen to alternative views, although, of course, he is a genuine Conservative in his values and principles. He is also a very dynamic and energetic individual with an interesting background.

He was educated at a comprehensive school and took a MBA after his first degree in engineering. He then went to work in the motor industry with MG Rover so he is one of those relatively rare candidates who has a manufacturing industry background.

Chris White has embedded itself him in the local community. Living in Warwick, he has served as a local councillor and school governor and involved himself in local charitable and voluntary activities. In the months leading up to the campaign, he has been talking to groups such as teachers and health care professionals. He has also campaigned against local fire station closures, although ironically this plan was put forward by the Conservative controlled county council.

While highighting the 'jobs tax' and safeguarding the NHS, his campaign literature contains quite a lot of emphasis on local issues such as protecting allotments and preventing over development.

The person he most admires is President Obama and the person he would like least to be stuck in a lift with is Nick Griffin. What makes him most angry is discrimination of any kind.

Dave Cameron said the other day that he is a 'one nation' Conservative and Chris White comes across as such a person. He would be an effective constituency MP with the potential for ministerial office and would not be a supporter of extremist policies or reducing front line public service.

This is a general election and voters are choosing a government as well as a MP. But the Conservatives have chosen an effective candidate who is well in tune with the constituency he seeks to represent.

Tories may fall short by 48 seats

An interesting report here which suggests that the Conservatives will end up as the largest party in the Commons after the general election, but 48 seats short of an absolute majority with the Lib Dems on just under 100 seats: Election

It's a very fluid situation and there's everything to play for. Lib Dem support may turn out to be very soft. But there is a slight touch of panic creeping into statements from some Conservatives with talk of 'two weeks to save the Conservative Party'. The fear is that a hung Parliament could lead to a change in the electoral system which would permanently disadvantage the Conservatives.

Polls not good news for Tories

The latest two opinion polls are not good news for the Conservatives. The latest YouGov poll shows them just two points ahead of Labour. A poll in 56 key Labour held marginals shows them trailing Labour: Polls

Although the poll results are somewhat erratic and, of course, subject to sampling error there has been a general downward trend for the Conservatives since last year. Of course, to some expect one would expect this as their policies come under closer scrutiny.

However, their overall message does come as rather negative: 'Isn't Gordon Brown awful?' The other message seems to be 'It's our turn'. That may have some resonance with voters, but it's not enough. One needs to a clearer indication of what the Conservatives would do that is distinctive and would help to improve the condition of the economy and society more generally. At the moment that message is not coming across and there is an over reliance on Dave Cameron's personal lead over Gordon Brown.