That is the contention of Chris Gibson and Patrick Dunleavy writing in the latest edition of PSA News. They argue, 'The truth is that the single-author blog model has already gone out of fashion. Without consistently strong posts, and an easy way of finding them, there is no readership. All the effort made in writing and posting will typically be wasted.'
They argue that 'the vast majority of popular political blogs are now multi-author blogs; that is, themed and coherent blogs run by a proper editorial team and calling on the services of multiple authors to ensure that the blog remains topical, can cumulate a great deal of content and can ensure a good 'churn' of high quality posts.'
This approach is represented by LSE's own blog which is found here: LSE
I note that they have a managing editor which means that resources have been found from somewhere whereas most bloggers are working on their own, some very successfully (Guido Fawkes). An editorial team also means some form of control which may not encourage thinking outside the box.
Not that I pretend to be thinking outside the box. One review of this blog states, that it 'fails to really excite or even raise the temperature of its reader.' Well, of course, I am not trying to raise anyone's temperature. Anger rarely produces good policy, and this is a blog which is interested in analysis not polemic as the title implies.
It is the least successful blog I write as the numbers for this year in terms of hits show:
Political Economy of Football 325,022
Addick's Diary (Charlton) 173,229
Common Agricultural Policy 18,433
Analysing British Politics 12,291
Numbers for this blog are up year on year and as to some extent it is simply a way of sorting out my own thoughts, I will be carrying on in 2011.
Friday, 31 December 2010
Thursday, 30 December 2010
A re-run of the poll tax protests?
The general secretary of the TUC, Brendan Barber, has said that 2011 may be the year in which country says no to government just as in the case of poll tax. The plan seems to be to stage a wave of strikes in the run up to the royal wedding to cause maximum embarrassment to the Government.
Something of a particular reading of history seems to have occurred in the case of the poll tax. There were riots in Trafalgar Square and other acts of defiance, particularly in Scotland. However, what really scared the Government was that they were losing electoral support on the issue and that contributed to the fall of Margaret Thatcher.
They also lost the intellectual case on the poll tax which violated a fundamental principle of taxation originally set out by Adam Smith: there should be some relationship between a tax and ability to pay. I am not sure that the Government has lost the intellectual case on the deficit. Many voters think the country has been living beyond its means.
However, voters think that protests can be effective. In a recent Populus poll, seven out of ten of those polled said public protests 'can be effective ... and played a big part in getting the last Conservative Government to scrap the poll tax.'
One in five could see themselves being involved in protests against spending cuts, while two in five think 'a degree of disobedience and public disorder' is sometimes necessary to make governments take notice of issues.
Something of a particular reading of history seems to have occurred in the case of the poll tax. There were riots in Trafalgar Square and other acts of defiance, particularly in Scotland. However, what really scared the Government was that they were losing electoral support on the issue and that contributed to the fall of Margaret Thatcher.
They also lost the intellectual case on the poll tax which violated a fundamental principle of taxation originally set out by Adam Smith: there should be some relationship between a tax and ability to pay. I am not sure that the Government has lost the intellectual case on the deficit. Many voters think the country has been living beyond its means.
However, voters think that protests can be effective. In a recent Populus poll, seven out of ten of those polled said public protests 'can be effective ... and played a big part in getting the last Conservative Government to scrap the poll tax.'
One in five could see themselves being involved in protests against spending cuts, while two in five think 'a degree of disobedience and public disorder' is sometimes necessary to make governments take notice of issues.
Tuesday, 28 December 2010
The rising misery index
The misery index in the economy is likely to rise next year. Unemployment is almost certain to go up, although there is some dispute about how much it will increase by. However, it is unlikely that all the lost public sector jobs can be replaced in the private sector. Indeed, private sector bosses may be unwilling to hire displaced public sector workers whom they suspect of having led a cushy life. Women will be particularly affected as they are disproportionately employed in the public sector.
Inflation shows no signs of easing. There is pressure on commodity prices, particularly food, gas, oil and cotton. At some point the Bank of England will start to increase interest rates, although by how much and when remains a matter of argument. The CBI says 2.5% by year end: I think 1.75% is more likely.
Even so, one of the things that has helped many people through the recession is that mortgage interest repayments have, depending on the deal a person has, have been kept low. If they rose, real disposable income would be reduced even further. As it is, it will be hit by fact that wages are not generally keeping pace with inflation, by the rise in VAT and by the 1p per £ increase in national insurance contributions from April which is in effect a 1 per cent rise in income tax.
Not surprisingly, retailers are worried about consumer demand. Of course, an objective of current policy is to shift the economy from one driven by private consumption to one in which exports play a greater role.
Meanwhile, the Government is suffering a series of defeats at the hands of fiscal nimbyism. The unfortunate Michael Gove has had to retreat on school sports and free books for young children. In the latter case the sum involved is small, but one way in which retrenchment tends to happen is by cutting smaller programmes completely. Now the Government is under pressure on the forensic science service, the privatisation of which strikes me as not a good idea.
Campaigns may achieve victories on particular issues. An alliance of nimbys may well defeat the proposed HST from London to Birmingham, the start of a larger network. My local MP Chris White has come out against it, reflecting the views of his constituents. The opponents of the scheme say that the business and environmental case is flawed, but if that is so, how have countries such as China, France, Japan, Korea and Spain been able to make high speed trains viable whereas we just have a stretch of line in Kent?
What is clear is that there is choppy political water ahead in 2011 and it may not be possible to deflect the opprobium on to the Liberal Democrats.
Inflation shows no signs of easing. There is pressure on commodity prices, particularly food, gas, oil and cotton. At some point the Bank of England will start to increase interest rates, although by how much and when remains a matter of argument. The CBI says 2.5% by year end: I think 1.75% is more likely.
Even so, one of the things that has helped many people through the recession is that mortgage interest repayments have, depending on the deal a person has, have been kept low. If they rose, real disposable income would be reduced even further. As it is, it will be hit by fact that wages are not generally keeping pace with inflation, by the rise in VAT and by the 1p per £ increase in national insurance contributions from April which is in effect a 1 per cent rise in income tax.
Not surprisingly, retailers are worried about consumer demand. Of course, an objective of current policy is to shift the economy from one driven by private consumption to one in which exports play a greater role.
Meanwhile, the Government is suffering a series of defeats at the hands of fiscal nimbyism. The unfortunate Michael Gove has had to retreat on school sports and free books for young children. In the latter case the sum involved is small, but one way in which retrenchment tends to happen is by cutting smaller programmes completely. Now the Government is under pressure on the forensic science service, the privatisation of which strikes me as not a good idea.
Campaigns may achieve victories on particular issues. An alliance of nimbys may well defeat the proposed HST from London to Birmingham, the start of a larger network. My local MP Chris White has come out against it, reflecting the views of his constituents. The opponents of the scheme say that the business and environmental case is flawed, but if that is so, how have countries such as China, France, Japan, Korea and Spain been able to make high speed trains viable whereas we just have a stretch of line in Kent?
What is clear is that there is choppy political water ahead in 2011 and it may not be possible to deflect the opprobium on to the Liberal Democrats.
Wednesday, 22 December 2010
Condensing gas central heating boiler failures
A big enough news story to get on BBC TV last night and on Radio 5 this morning. They are a modern, sophisticated, supposedly energy efficient form of boiler that have been in use for about three years now. When in use they send out a cloud of steam so goodness knows what they do for global warming.
Ours has failed twice so here are a few tips on what to do:
1. Contact a registered gas fitter: Gas safety
2. My gas fitter said to me on the phone 'The whole country's going down.'
3. If you can't get a gas fitter, read the manual for your boiler.
4. Very often the problem is that the external condensing outlet pipe has frozen. You should get this lagged, but the lagging used in the UK cannot cope with the very low temperatures we have been having.
5. At your own risk, apply hot water to the outlet pipe (it should not be boiling or it will crack the pipe). Make sure you are standing on a non-slip surface and that there is no risk of scalding yourself.
6. Make sure that no other connected pipes are frozen: our system was shut down yesteday by our washing machine outlet pipe.
7. Check that the boiler is dry before re-starting it (then take cover).
8. In very cold weather keep the central heating overnight although at a lower thermostat setting (depending on your control system).
9. If you do not have an annual overhaul by a registered gas fitter, make sure you arrange one.
My experience is limited to my own boiler and what you do is at your own risk. Ideally, this work should be done by a registered professional.
Ours has failed twice so here are a few tips on what to do:
1. Contact a registered gas fitter: Gas safety
2. My gas fitter said to me on the phone 'The whole country's going down.'
3. If you can't get a gas fitter, read the manual for your boiler.
4. Very often the problem is that the external condensing outlet pipe has frozen. You should get this lagged, but the lagging used in the UK cannot cope with the very low temperatures we have been having.
5. At your own risk, apply hot water to the outlet pipe (it should not be boiling or it will crack the pipe). Make sure you are standing on a non-slip surface and that there is no risk of scalding yourself.
6. Make sure that no other connected pipes are frozen: our system was shut down yesteday by our washing machine outlet pipe.
7. Check that the boiler is dry before re-starting it (then take cover).
8. In very cold weather keep the central heating overnight although at a lower thermostat setting (depending on your control system).
9. If you do not have an annual overhaul by a registered gas fitter, make sure you arrange one.
My experience is limited to my own boiler and what you do is at your own risk. Ideally, this work should be done by a registered professional.
Tuesday, 21 December 2010
From hero to zero
When I appeared on Rory Bremner's panel in his pre-election show at the Warwick Arts Centre, a questioner from the audience asked us to name a politician who seemed to better than the rest or words to that effect. I named Vince Cable and got a ripple of applause from the audience.
As Enoch Powell remarked, all political careers end in failure and, for all his skills on the dance floor, Vince Cable's reputation has taken a nose dive. He shouldn't have made such remarks to strangers, particularly when he was taking decisions in a quasi-judicial capacity.
If he wanted a war on Murdoch, he has lost. It will now be very difficult to stop the BSkyB takeover. News Corp are even thinking of challenging the reference to Ofcom through judicial review.
Nevertheless, Vince has got off relatively lightly. The Conservative right would have liked Ken Clarke moved into the business portfolio to stop him being 'soft' on criminals. As it is, David Hunt who is a through-and-through Cameroony has got additional powers.
One of the paradoxical consequences of these events (including similar stings carried out on lesser Liberal lights) may be to give a boost to the morale of Lib Dem activists who thought the party was abandoning its principles. They can now be reassured that there is some evidence that ministers are fighting their corner in government.
It should also be remembered that when there is a one party government personality clashes and differences over policy arise between ministers. There is, nevertheless, something in the argument that a party that has been out of office for a generation was ill prepared for the responsibilities of government.
As Enoch Powell remarked, all political careers end in failure and, for all his skills on the dance floor, Vince Cable's reputation has taken a nose dive. He shouldn't have made such remarks to strangers, particularly when he was taking decisions in a quasi-judicial capacity.
If he wanted a war on Murdoch, he has lost. It will now be very difficult to stop the BSkyB takeover. News Corp are even thinking of challenging the reference to Ofcom through judicial review.
Nevertheless, Vince has got off relatively lightly. The Conservative right would have liked Ken Clarke moved into the business portfolio to stop him being 'soft' on criminals. As it is, David Hunt who is a through-and-through Cameroony has got additional powers.
One of the paradoxical consequences of these events (including similar stings carried out on lesser Liberal lights) may be to give a boost to the morale of Lib Dem activists who thought the party was abandoning its principles. They can now be reassured that there is some evidence that ministers are fighting their corner in government.
It should also be remembered that when there is a one party government personality clashes and differences over policy arise between ministers. There is, nevertheless, something in the argument that a party that has been out of office for a generation was ill prepared for the responsibilities of government.
Cable at bay
One of the many unedifying aspects of current British politics is the way in which the media regularly demonstrate their power by entrapping and then driving from office a particular minister. The latest target is Vince Cable after he fell foul of a 'sting' operation conducted by the Daily Telegraph.
Cable now appears to have gone to ground among demands for his resignation, but he may just be having another ballroom dancing lesson. His statement that he declared war on Rupert Murdoch and his organisation has attracted particular attention with a statement of shock being put out by the Murdoch interests.
There are those of us who think that the significant position of the Murdoch organisation in broadcast and print media deserves closer scrutiny, particularly in terms of the political leverage it gives them. That is not to deny that Sky News and Sky Sports News have been innovative in their approach to television.
The Coalition Government finds itself attacked from the left by a nascent alliance of workers and students (shades of 1968) that thinks it can defeat the government on the streets and a grateful electorate would then give Ed Miliband a working majority to fill in his blank sheet of paper.
It is possible that the Conservatives could win an early election. That is why some of those on the right would like to undermine the Government so that they can have red in tooth and claw Conservatism.
I think the country needs some stability: a general election in 2011 would not really be in anyone's interests. Cable may weather the storm or David Laws could be brought into replace him and we could all enjoy Vince's Christmas performance on Strictly Come Dancing (it reminds me of when Dennis Healey as chancellor appeared on the leading comedy show of the day, Morecambe and Wise).
At least it makes a change from reading about 'My Snow Hell'.
Cable now appears to have gone to ground among demands for his resignation, but he may just be having another ballroom dancing lesson. His statement that he declared war on Rupert Murdoch and his organisation has attracted particular attention with a statement of shock being put out by the Murdoch interests.
There are those of us who think that the significant position of the Murdoch organisation in broadcast and print media deserves closer scrutiny, particularly in terms of the political leverage it gives them. That is not to deny that Sky News and Sky Sports News have been innovative in their approach to television.
The Coalition Government finds itself attacked from the left by a nascent alliance of workers and students (shades of 1968) that thinks it can defeat the government on the streets and a grateful electorate would then give Ed Miliband a working majority to fill in his blank sheet of paper.
It is possible that the Conservatives could win an early election. That is why some of those on the right would like to undermine the Government so that they can have red in tooth and claw Conservatism.
I think the country needs some stability: a general election in 2011 would not really be in anyone's interests. Cable may weather the storm or David Laws could be brought into replace him and we could all enjoy Vince's Christmas performance on Strictly Come Dancing (it reminds me of when Dennis Healey as chancellor appeared on the leading comedy show of the day, Morecambe and Wise).
At least it makes a change from reading about 'My Snow Hell'.
Monday, 20 December 2010
Anthony Howard
The death of Anthony Howard robs us of a distinguished political journalist and commentator. He had an encyclopaedic knowledge of politicians which he was able to deploy in the last stage of his full-time career as obituaries editor of The Times. He was a polite but incisive television and radio interviewer. He wrote three biographies: I particularly liked that about Richard Crossman which was a model of its kind.
I never knew him, but one day I passed him on the path outside my office. He was on his way to Warwick University's Modern Record Centre which houses the Crossman collection. He researched his subjects seriously.
I learnt a few things from his obituary which I did not know before. I did not know that his father was a vicar in places like Highgate and Epsom, but I should have done. I did not know that his career started on Reynolds News a long disappeared worthy Sunday organ of the Cooperative Movement. I remember that my uncle's newsagents carried a few copies which no one every seemed to buy, even when it was re-launched as the Sunday Citizen. Howard moved on to better things, but never to the editorship of a major newspaper which many felt he deserved.
Howard remained an Anglican, but one sceptical of the Church: perhaps he was an Erastian. They, too, are a dying breed. Howard was one of a generation of knowledgeable, well-read, sophisticated political journalists who weren't able to construct their stories off the internet. We really shan't see his like again.
I never knew him, but one day I passed him on the path outside my office. He was on his way to Warwick University's Modern Record Centre which houses the Crossman collection. He researched his subjects seriously.
I learnt a few things from his obituary which I did not know before. I did not know that his father was a vicar in places like Highgate and Epsom, but I should have done. I did not know that his career started on Reynolds News a long disappeared worthy Sunday organ of the Cooperative Movement. I remember that my uncle's newsagents carried a few copies which no one every seemed to buy, even when it was re-launched as the Sunday Citizen. Howard moved on to better things, but never to the editorship of a major newspaper which many felt he deserved.
Howard remained an Anglican, but one sceptical of the Church: perhaps he was an Erastian. They, too, are a dying breed. Howard was one of a generation of knowledgeable, well-read, sophisticated political journalists who weren't able to construct their stories off the internet. We really shan't see his like again.
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