Tripping the light fantastic

A while back I was at the theatre in London and Vince Cable come into the row in front. The reaction to him showed that he was personally well liked, at any rate by a London theatre audience. I felt quite sorry for him when a Liberal Democrat bore (of whom there are many) droned on at him in the interval.

He can certainly trip the light fantastic and his ballroom dancing contrasts with May's robotic style. His personal style may be that of a 'tetchy rationalist' as Matthew Parris observed yesterday, but that probably goes down well with some voters.

But is he a good leader of a political party? No. Otherwise the Lib Dems would not be flatlining in the polls when the political weather should be quite good for them. He says he is going to stand down, which he should at 75 (don't give me Churchill), but clearly it's going to be a long goodbye.

Trying to learn from Canadian experience, but in fact turning it into something from the Daft Ideas Department, he is now advocating bringing in a leader from outside Parliament. The favoured candidate, Gina Miller, has sensibly said no way.

The Lib Dems have never had a woman as leader, and have been predominantly masculine in terms of their MPs. However, they now have two women in Parliament who could do the job: my marginal preference would be for Jo Swinson.

William Haugue (not talking about the Lib Dems) at his lovely home in Wales

However, there are more fundamental dilemmas. William Hague said that the good thing about the Coalition Government was that it would finish off the Liberal Democrats and it probably did tarnish their brand beyond repair.

Now many pin their hopes on a Social Democratic Party Mark II. There has been media speculation for months, but whether the advocates will ever come into the daylight remains to be seen.

The Social Democrats failed in part because they were a rump of the Labour Party, notably failing to attract moderate Conservatives (other than the worthy Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler). They did, however, damage Labour in the 1983 election which became 'a race for second place' and this should concern Labour now.

However, the Centre Party will not succeed. The main constraint is the first past the post system. UKIP failed to turn their votes into more than one general election seat (in one of the most barking areas of the country). When voters were offered a modest alternative in a referendum, they voted it down.

The advocates of a Centre party say that most voters identify themselves as 'centrists'. But I think this is because voters don't like to identify themselves as 'extremists', even if their views are on either end of the political spectrum.

Jo Swinson and the vacant centre

I am not a Liberal Democrat, but I have a lot of time for Jo Swinson for the work she did on under discussed issues like body image. She has given an interesting interview to The Guardian: Harder to offer simple solutions

Given that the Labour Party is consolidating its lurch to the left, and a weakened Conservative Party often seems to be held hostage by the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson, one would think that there was a ready made space in the centre for Liberal Democrats to occupy. After all, the data would suggest that there are plenty of voters in the centre of the political spectrum.

I think that they are still suffering from being in coalition with the Conservatives. At the time I thought it was the right decision as they had to show that they could be a party of government as well as a party of opposition. Swinson herself admits that she learnt a lot from being a minister, in particular the fact that there are no simple solutions to many issues and many dangers from unintended consequences.

Swinson also tackles the issue of whether it was her gender that stopped her standing as leader. Again I think it was the right decision to give 'national treasure' Sir Vince a chance to display his silky skills away from the ballroom floor. But Swinson could well be leader before the next election.

The experience so far with the Democratic Unionists suggests that one can get a lot out of a confidence and supply agreement while still maintain autonomy. But then the Democratic Unionists have demands that relate to a very specific territory and require a cash pay off. What the Liberal Democrats wanted would have been somewhat more elevated.

From hero to zero

When I appeared on Rory Bremner's panel in his pre-election show at the Warwick Arts Centre, a questioner from the audience asked us to name a politician who seemed to better than the rest or words to that effect. I named Vince Cable and got a ripple of applause from the audience.

As Enoch Powell remarked, all political careers end in failure and, for all his skills on the dance floor, Vince Cable's reputation has taken a nose dive. He shouldn't have made such remarks to strangers, particularly when he was taking decisions in a quasi-judicial capacity.

If he wanted a war on Murdoch, he has lost. It will now be very difficult to stop the BSkyB takeover. News Corp are even thinking of challenging the reference to Ofcom through judicial review.

Nevertheless, Vince has got off relatively lightly. The Conservative right would have liked Ken Clarke moved into the business portfolio to stop him being 'soft' on criminals. As it is, David Hunt who is a through-and-through Cameroony has got additional powers.

One of the paradoxical consequences of these events (including similar stings carried out on lesser Liberal lights) may be to give a boost to the morale of Lib Dem activists who thought the party was abandoning its principles. They can now be reassured that there is some evidence that ministers are fighting their corner in government.

It should also be remembered that when there is a one party government personality clashes and differences over policy arise between ministers. There is, nevertheless, something in the argument that a party that has been out of office for a generation was ill prepared for the responsibilities of government.

Cable at bay

One of the many unedifying aspects of current British politics is the way in which the media regularly demonstrate their power by entrapping and then driving from office a particular minister. The latest target is Vince Cable after he fell foul of a 'sting' operation conducted by the Daily Telegraph.

Cable now appears to have gone to ground among demands for his resignation, but he may just be having another ballroom dancing lesson. His statement that he declared war on Rupert Murdoch and his organisation has attracted particular attention with a statement of shock being put out by the Murdoch interests.

There are those of us who think that the significant position of the Murdoch organisation in broadcast and print media deserves closer scrutiny, particularly in terms of the political leverage it gives them. That is not to deny that Sky News and Sky Sports News have been innovative in their approach to television.

The Coalition Government finds itself attacked from the left by a nascent alliance of workers and students (shades of 1968) that thinks it can defeat the government on the streets and a grateful electorate would then give Ed Miliband a working majority to fill in his blank sheet of paper.

It is possible that the Conservatives could win an early election. That is why some of those on the right would like to undermine the Government so that they can have red in tooth and claw Conservatism.

I think the country needs some stability: a general election in 2011 would not really be in anyone's interests. Cable may weather the storm or David Laws could be brought into replace him and we could all enjoy Vince's Christmas performance on Strictly Come Dancing (it reminds me of when Dennis Healey as chancellor appeared on the leading comedy show of the day, Morecambe and Wise).

At least it makes a change from reading about 'My Snow Hell'.

The UK economy is on the mend

That is the verdict of the International Monetary Fund in a positive report on the UK economy: Fund .

The report praises the Coalition Government's 'strong and credible' deficit reduction plan. While fiscal tightening could dampen short-term growth, it will not stop it, one in the eye for the double dip recession school of thought. CPI inflation should be back on target by 2012.

There are some araes of concern in relation to the banks and the report emphasises the need for the momentum of financial sector reform to continue. Backing for Vince, then. BTW, it was interesting to see my local Conservative MP Chris White writing an 'I'm with Vince' piece in the local paper.

Quite how 'Red Ed' will respond to this remains to be seen. It is his first test on the economic front.

Vince lays it on the line

One of the news channels commented that Vince Cable looked 'hemmed in' as he sat on the Treasury bench during the Chancellor's speech yesterday. In truth there isn't much room on the front bench, although there was a certain irony in Vince being placed next to Iain Duncan-Smith.

In this article, Vince does not trip the light fantastic, but lays it on the line about why there was no alternative to a tough budget and why he has channged his mind on some issues: Vince

In ambushing the university vice-chancellors over their pay hikes, Vince showed that he can be a grizzly bear as well as a cuddly one. He can play hard ball, which is as it should be.

One of the constitutional ironies of yesterday's performance was that it was preceded by questions to the Church Commissioners, their spokesman on earth now being Tom Baldry, the member for Banbury.

Resignation of David Laws

The resignation of David Laws as Chief Secretary to the Treasury is to be deeply regretted. I do not think it is good news for the political process or the country. That is not to say that he was wrong to resign. He did make a mistake and by going quickly he has headed off a media feeding frenzy which would have been damaging to the Coalition Government.

This affair has a number of dimensions:

The loss of a very able Chief Secretary

The post of Chief Secretary is a particularly important one in the Government in current circumstances. I am on the very fringe of the most peripheral decisions, but I can sense how challenging they are. As Vince Cable has just emphasised on television, what unites the coalition parties above all else is their understanding of the economic situation and the response it demands.

George Osborne has just said that it was as if David Laws had been put on earth to be Chief Secretary. He had a background in banking, an understanding of economics and a bone dry approach to policy. He had made a very positive impression in the role in the Commons.

Being a gay politician

As Vince Cable has just said, we all talk about being socially liberal, but what is the reality? Society is more tolerant of sexual diversity than in the past, but it is not easy for gay politicians to come out. I know of others who have not. David Laws wanted to keep his private and public life separate. Should this not be possible? In his statement he made a poignant reference to the fact that he had perhaps put his political career above those he loved.

The power of the media

Once again a newspaper has been able to bring down a politician. No doubt they would claim they were acting in the public interest. But has the national interest really been served by the departure of David Laws?

Danny Alexander

With his usual political bruiser instincts, Ed Balls has already piled in to say that Danny Alexander is not up to the job. Danny Alexander is clearly a very capable individual. He is close to Nick Clegg and fully signed up to the coalition agenda and in that sense more suitable as a replacement than Chris Huhne or Vince Cable. He had something of a non-job as Scottish Secetary. It is up to him to rise to the challenge he faces.

And finally

David Laws deserves credit for the dignity with which he has behaved under great personal strain. But the following politicians have also made dignified and measured responses: David Cameron; George Osborne; Nick Clegg; Vince Cable. That maturity says a great deal about the strength of the coalition, but there is no doubt that this is a setback and it is one for the country as well as the Government.

Hughes favourite in deputy leader race

Left-leaning Bermondsey MP Simon Hughes is emerging as the hot favourite in the contest for Deputy Leader of the Lib Dems, a potentially more significant post in current circumstances. The post became vacant after the resignation of Vince 'Mr Grumpy' Cable who is focusing on his role as Business Secretary.

Hughes has already asked an awkward question of 'The Governent' in the Commons and could become the focus of discontent among Liberal activists, particularly as Conservative backbenchers and the right-wing press are trying to water down an increase in capital gains tax.

Lib Dem starlet Jo Swinson disappointed her many fans when she tweeted: 'surprised & touched by lovely tweets & emails encouraging me to run for Lib Dem deputy leader - however I will not be standing'.

For many years the post was held by veteran MP and former political scientist Alan Beith. Beith played a pivotal role in coalition discussions in the Lib Dem parliamentary party when he drew on his frustrating experience with the Lib-Lab pact to suggest that a full coalition was the only viable option.

A steep learning curve

I have to admit that I am on a steep learning curve with the Coalition Government. I have a sense of the policy ground shifting beneath my feet even in areas I am very familiar with. The final outcome is very uncertain in many cases.

Part of the problem is a lack of familiarity with the policies of the Liberal Democrats. Mea culpa, but many of us never anticipated they would be in government. I am reminded of an incident in the 2001 Parliament when I was attending a meeting at the House of Commons on higher education. A Liberal Democrat MP came and sat next to me. I knew he was and which constituency he represented. What I didn't know was that he was their spokesman on higher education which sent him into 'Do you know who I am?' mode.

In one policy area with which I am familiar, admittedly not a very high profile one, I have learnt that the Liberal Democrats have a policy which is diametrically opposite that of the Conservatives. It will be interesting to see what is said at a meeting on the subject I have to attend tomorrow.

I am not saying that it will not be possible to arrive at negotiated compromises or agreements to differ on these matters. But it is relatively uncharted territory politically and to some extent the rules of the game have to be learnt as we go along.

One area which is quite important is the role of the Treasury. I think it is no great secret that senior Treasury officials were indicating in the months before the election that they thought their department should continue to be an economics as well as a finance ministry.

George Osborne and his ultra dry Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary are clearly focused on its role as a finance ministry for understandable reasons. Quite a lot of the economic territory is being carved out by St. Vince of Cable. However, we have been here before. Challenges by the business department (in its many incarnations) have always ended up with the Treasury eventually establishing dominant control of the policy space.

Coalition tie

I never anticipated a Conservative-Liberal coalition government. In fact, I think I have only made two correct predictions over the last couple of weeks. I forecast that Chris White would win Warwick and Leamington for the Conservatives, but greatly underestimated his majority. Actually my original intuition was that his majority would be over 3,000, but I couldn't believe that the swing would be that big. If it had been across the country as a whole, the Conservatives would have a comfortable working majority.

Following Gordon Brown's resignation, my local BBC radio station rang up and asked me on air when David Cameron would arrive at Downing Street. I did a very rough calculation of the likely choreography, but it was an inspired guess that made me say 8.45 p.m. (it was 8.43).

Once the election results were known, I thought that the Lib Dems would limit themselves to a 'confidence and supply' agreement with the Conservatives and that another election would follow. Although the so-called 'progressive majority' is something of a myth and not all Lib Dem voters are natural Labour voters who have strayed, I though they would be reluctant to vacate their slightly left-of-centre political space and risk their identity.

When the National Government was formed in 1931, the Liberals split (as did Labour, although National Labour was a small faction). The National Liberals had a distinct identity into well in the post-war period with their own whips and space in the House of Commons. Some candidates stood as 'National Liberal and Conservative' or some such formulation. But they became a footnote to history.

I realised how much I changed when I saw the Lord President of the Council, Nick Clegg, leading his fellow cabinet ministers into Buckingham Palace to receive their seals of office. They must have thought they would never see the day. It is also good to see a talented young woman like Sarah Teather become a minister of state.

The personal chemistry in the coalition is so far good, with perhaps a hint of tension between Vince Cable and George Osborne. The coalition agreement, a much shorter agreement than is usual in continental Europe, needs to be fleshed out, although it was completed with commendable speed (it takes about three weeks in Germany). Mechanisms have been put in place to resolve disagreements. Some of the most difficult issues may arise because of EU directives or regulations, with decisions unfavourable to British interests on hedge funds scheduled to be taken in a week or two.

There has been some argument about the fixed term parliament proposals, with constitutional experts expressing different views. The legislation may get a rough ride in the House of Lords.

I had a look in my wardrobe this morning at my collection of ties. I don't wear a tie that often, although I have a lot. But I didn't have one that was predominantly blue with a subordinate yellow theme. So I went out and bought one.

Whilst talk of the 'national interest' has been overdone in the last few days, the country's economic and financial circumstances are such that we need this coalition government to work.

Vince wins, but what's the prize?

Vince Cable was the clear winner in last night's debate between would-be chancellors, both according to an online poll of viewers and my own judgement after watching the programme. Saint Vince did remind us that he had been right all long, but was also prepared to think the unthinkable and say we could not ring fence the NHS without leading to devastating cuts elsewhere.

George Osborne was wearing an over tight suit and was in a bit of a tight spot over the promise to reverse the proposed rise in National Insurance contributions. He claims to have discovered even more efficiency savings. We all know that they exist: on Saturday I got six separate letters with an accompanying leaflet about tax codes from Revenue and Customs. Some were for employers I had done a task for once and was unlikely to do again and once was for a pension fund I am not a member of. But as Vince pointed out, many of these efficency savings are 'pure fiction'. And if they can be made, why not use them to pay down the debt?

Darling batted well on a sticky wicket and did himself no harm. Unfortunately, the audience asked straight and clear questions, but rarely got straight and clear answers, although more so from Vince.

As George Osborne pointed out towards the end of the programme, we are either going to have a Conservative or a Labour Government sometime after May 7th, so there is no prize for Vince. One newspaper suggested this morning that we could have a Lib Dem chancellor, but the Lib Dems are not going to tarnish their identity by entering a coalition.

Politicians I admire: UK

This has proved quite difficult. I could certainly come up with a list of politicians who are no longer with us: Clem Attlee for Labour; Jo Grimond for the Liberals; Ian Gilmour (whom I knew quite well) for the Conservatives. As I have remarked before, I could come up quite a long list of civil servants, but it would be unfair in particular to embarrass those who hold middle ranking posts.

When I was a teenager I was an avid reader of New Musical Express. They used to have a feature in which aspiring pop artistes/groups were asked, among other questions, 'Who would you like to meet when you come to London?' Of itself that question says a lot about Britain's metropolitan mentality and the attitude that prevailed then to what were referred to as 'the provinces'.

Anyway my answer to the question is Vince Cable. This is probably a rather boring answer as he is everyone's favourite politician. I first became aware of him when he was temporarily an academic at Chatham House and he wrote with great insight and perception about Britain and the euro. I have read his recent book about the financial crisis and I thought that it showed signs of being written in a hurry.

One of the things I like about Vince is that he had what Dennis Healey called 'hinterland'. (On one occasion I recall this involved Dennis reciting a rather bad poem he had written, but never mind). What Dennis meant was a life outside politics. Vince had to deal with the long illness of his first wife. Rather unfairly, he has got some stick from his children for marrying again.

Ballroom dancing is a complete turn off for me, but it is evident that Vince is rather skilled at tripping the light fantastic. Above all, he has an ability to choose the right phrase at the right moment. His 'Stalin to Mr Bean in a few weeks' remark about Gordon Brown was hilarious.

I think Vince has much more to him than the iredeemably lightweight Nick Clegg and should really be leader of the Lib Dems, but his age counted against him. Vince does have an instinct for the jugular, which any successful politician needs, as he manoeuvred quite skilfully against Charles Kennedy when the latter was in his 'are they open yet?' phase.

In the interests of fairness, I would like to add three other politicians from other parties. There are no Scottish Nationalists. I think Alex Salmond is a very clever politician and an effective defender of Scottish interests, but this at the expense (including financial expense) of the rest of what is still notionally the United Kingdom.

For the Conservatives I would nominate Theresa May. I have met her, albeit briefly, and she came across to me as intelligent, sensible and perceptive. I thought that her remark about the Conservatives being perceived to be the 'nasty' party was something that needed to be said. It may have upset Conservative loyalists, but it helped Dave Cameron in his task of rebranding the party.

For Labour, I would nominate Frank Field. I have met him and it confirmed my impression of someone who sincere and thoughtful (like Dave Cameron he is an Anglo Catholic). Frank Field was someone who was prepared (and encouraged) to 'think the unthinkable' and it cost him his place in government: the Blairites didn't want anything too radical which might upset traditional client groups. Since then he has been a very effective Parliamentarian.

My final nomination goes to Dr Richard Taylor, the Independent MP for Wyre Forest. If he is successful in seeking a third term, he will be the longest serving Independent MP under the modern franchise. There were, of course, some interesting examples in the past including 'Billy Brown from Rugby Town'. Brown was a white collar trade unionist who had flirted with Oswald Moseley's New Party but turned away once Moseley became a fascist.

When Taylor was elected in protest against New Labour health policies which adversely affected Kidderminster, Clare Short dismissed him contemptuously as 'only one guy'. In fact he has been quite an effective member of the Commons Health committee. He also has a nice touch in self depreciating humour. When the new Speaker was elected, he got up and said 'As senior Independent in the House ...'

So there you have it. The emergence of a professional political class has probably done more harm than good to democratic politics in Britain which is not to say that I would approve of it becoming a repository for celebrities where success in Strictly or the X Factor would launch you on a political career. There will be a very large turnover of MPs at the next election and it will be interesting to see how this affects politics.

The cuts menu

Gordon Brown has at last uttered the 'cuts' word more than once, but apart from cutting back on civil service early retirement deals was remarkably vague about how he would achieve them given that he wants to spare 'front line services'.

It was evident from one sentence in the speech that he is looking to growth as a way out of his difficulties, but to have any significant impact on revenues one would need to return to a 2 per cent growth rate which isn't going to happen any time soon. Unemployment is also going to rise for some time and will then fall only slowly, increasing the benefits bill.

What is evident is that all three parties will hold back public sector pay as a means of achieving relatively quick savings. There is also something of a consensus emerging that Britain will have to replace Trident with a minimal deterrent.

The Lib Dems have come forward with quite a detailed cuts menu, but then they are not going to have the responsibility of government. They said that public sector pensions would have to be reviewed and that is inescapable. They also called into question the third tranche of the Eurofighter.

However, two of Vince Cable's ideas were less sensible. He took a pop at quangos which always goes down well. But one has to think about this. Quangos were established to carry out a function, usually a regulatory one and generally in response to public demand (or at least a media storm). If the quango is abolished, can the function be dispensed with, or can it be carried out elsewhere more efficiently? For example, if you abolished the Environment Agency, one of the largest quangos, one could not abandon all the functions as many of them are embedded in law and are essential to protecting the environment.

Vince also wanted to cut higher level civil service pay. Britain has a very good civil service, but one needs to pay well to retain the best staff. I wonder how much Vince got paid as a business economist at Shell? With inflation uprating, I would think that it would be a six figure sum.

The polls show a public preference for cuts over tax rises, but that support tends to break down when specific cuts are mooted. The Conservatives seem to have come rather well out of all this. They have been talking about cuts while Gordon was in denial and many voters might well think that if you are going to cut it is best done by a party that believes in it.

Je ne regrette rien

Being on the other side of the world for three weeks has an odd effect on one's perception of short-term British politics. Of course, one can visit the BBC and other websites. Papers like The Australian include quite a lot of coverage of British politics. That's just as well as the ABC nightly news seems to focus on shark and crocodile attacks and cats fighting off snakes.

Of course, one can get interested in Australian politics, in particular the election in Queensland. Australian state politics is poorly covered in the UK and I have to confess that I was not aware that the state Labour government had been voted out in Western Australia last November.

I come back to Britain and find there is a fashion for political apologies. I suppose it was all started by those rather grudging and scripted apologies made by bankers to a Parliamentary committee.

Dave Cameron is a very smart tactical politician and he set a trap for Gordon Brown by apologising for past Conservative errors last Saturday. The difficulty is that if Brown makes a partial apology, it can gives ammunition to the Conservatives, but also allows Dave to claim that it doesn't go far enough.

Brown now seems to have made a rather guarded and partial apology here:
Brown

It's supposed to be the start of a fight back, but I doubt whether it will get off the ground. A return to statism is pledged, although the Conservative seem to be edging in that direction as well. That leaves open the question of where a classic liberal might vote.

Not for the rather lightweight utopians represented by the Liberal Democrats, although I would have to qualify that by saying that Vince Cable is a very impressive politician who has been proved right by events and communicates very effectively. In fact, he is now regarded as a national treasure and sage.

Interesting that in an ageing society ageist considerations barred him from the Lib Dem leadership. Of course, Ming Campbell was mercilessly satirised on television as giving bedtime talks from his nursing home with a blanket over his knee and a cup of cocoa in his hand.

Satire often defines politicians. Some of us can remember David Steel portrayed as being in David Owen's pocket. It was a very damaging image.