The picture is really rather mixed. Canada returned a centrist internationalist as its prime minister, although the margin wasn't large and hotheads in Alberta are talking of seceding.
Rather unusually Australia elected a left of centre government for a second term, rejecting the hard right opposition. Now Romania has chosen a centrist liberal president over a hard right choice.
But then in Portugal far right Chega has broken the two party duopoly to become the second largest party in the legislature. In the Netherlamds and Austria far right parties have received the largest share of the vote in the last two years. They are also strong in Germany, Belgium, Sweden and Finland. Italy offers an example of right-wing pragmatism, while the picture in France is currently confused with the Republicans choosing the hard right interior minister as leader.
In the UK Reform made substantial gains in the local government elections, albeit on low turnouts and focused on certain parts of the country. However, it was enough to encourage right-wing newspapers to big up Nigel Farage as the next prime minister, not to forget the platform he is given by the BBC.
In my own ward the Liberal Democrats swept home with nearly 2,000 votes with every other party getting a few hundred each. Reform got 370.
I know only one lady who backs Reform. Somewhat paradoxically, she volunteers in a Global South charity shop. However, she complains that going to the shop she hears people speaking other than English.
I don't generally eavesdrop on conversations as I walk along the street. I doubt whether most foreign speakers are abusing me, but if they are saying 'Look at that fat, stupid Gammon' I wouldn't understand anyway.
The available evidence suggests that there is a hard core of Reform voters who also voted for UKIP, the Brexit Party and Leave in the referendum. Typically, they are older working class white males living in deprived areas. Thus Reform made big inroads in North Warwickshire, but made little headway in the south of the county.
However, it is evident that Reform also attracted some younger voters and more women than in the past. In many ways this was a 'none of the above' vote. There is plenty of evidence of failing public services and a lack of confidence in the mainstream parties to fix these problems, albeit it seems a bit hard to expect Labour to fix problems in ten months that have built up over 14 years.
More specifically, Reform have filled an unoccupied space in an increasingly complex political spectrum: conservative on social issues, especially immigration, but leaning left on standard economic issues, e.g., public ownership of public utilities and 'national champions'. It was a space the remnants of the Social Democrats such as Rod Liddle - but they lacked a charismatic, high profile leader.
Anyway one can't predict 2029 general election results from 2025 local elections, although Nick Clegg may have a point when he says that the Lib Dems could face another coalition challenge.
