Farmer support for Conservatives falls

Farmer support for the Conservatives has fallen below 50 per cent for the first time in living memory.  A survey by Farmers Weekly shows that just 42 per cent would vote Conservative if there was a general election tomorrow.

This compares with 57 per cent who said they would vote Conservative a year ago and 72 per cent in 2020.

Those farmers leaving the Conservatives are split almost equally between Labour and Liberal Democrats, each attracting 23 per cent of the farming vote.

In Scotland 38 per cent backed the Conservatives, followed by the SNP at 30 per cent.   In Wales 44 per cent said they would vote Conservative.   Labour and the Liberal Democrats got 19 per cent each and Plaid Cymru 15 per cent.

Owner occupiers were more strongly Conservative at 56 per cent, but their support among tenant farmers was just 22 per cent.   This group preferred the Liberal Democrats.

If these trends continue, they will not help in blue wall seats vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats.  Apart from farmers, there are many contractors and suppliers who depend on agricultural prosperity.

Streamlined monarchy will be able to do less

Somewhat to his surprise, Robert Hazell appeared in the Netflix documentary on Harry and Meghan.  With his co-author he reflects on modern monarchy and points out that a streamlined Royal Family we be able to do less, creating an expectations management issue: https://theconversation.com/netflixs-harry-and-meghan-the-sussexes-are-not-unique-in-being-royal-victims-196738

Voters up for grabs

Rob Ford provides five lessons from the last election: https://swingometer.substack.com/p/5-lessons-from-the-last-election?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

He notes: 'Whatever comes next, there are more voters in play than ever. Traditional partisan alignments have been fading for decades, and the Leave and Remain tribal attachments forged in 2016 may also be losing their hold with Brexit off the agenda. Two of the three most volatile elections in modern history have come in the past decade, with almost half of voters switching sides at least once between 2010-17. '

What a state we're in

There are some great insights in this very well written review of the political year.  Sunak is described as an 'interim CEO coming in to manage a bankruptcy.'  Truss is described as offering 'Ladybird-style Thatcherism'.  The Government has been 'plagued by a profound incoherence'.   The underlying message is that we are in a parlous state, yet Labour has no plan for government: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/this-government-is-dying-what-comes-next-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer

Good news for Labour at Chester

Rob Ford analyses the City of Chester by-election result which is good news for Labour: https://swingometer.substack.com/p/the-city-of-chester-by-election?utm_source=substack&publication_id=1186392&post_id=88171032&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true

The Conservatives did badly despite the absence of a significant challenge for the right.   Recent opinion poll boosts for Reform UK were not reflected in the result.

Reforming the Lords

Lords reform is a hardy perennial - I can remember the failed attempt in the 1960s defeated by an unholy coalition of the left and right.   However, it is useful to have a review of the options by leading expert Meg Russell: https://constitution-unit.com/2020/02/23/lords-reform-is-back-on-the-agenda-what-are-the-options/

What does need to bear in mind is that an elected Lords would have much greater legitimacy and the risk of legislative deadlock would increase.   There is something to be said for a moderating and scrutiny chamber, although not on its present basis.

Cakeism 2.0

There is a real prospect of Boris Johnson returning as prime minister after a short break.   Many Conservative MPs think he is the only person who can save them from an electoral wipeout and he would certainly win a vote among Conservative activists.

He does have support among the electorate.   One lady said on Radio 5 this morning, 'So he had a party during lockdown.  Lots of people did.'   Leaving aside the fact that he should be setting an example, there were multiple parties.

He is an inveterate liar who is still under investigation by the Privileges Committee.  His mixture of bluster and boosterism is hardly what the country needs.   We have already had an extreme version of Cakiesm under Truss.  But could Boris live with Jeremy Hunt's attachment to fiscal prudence?

He certainly is shrewd.   Some think he backed Truss, betting that she would fail and he could come back.  But do these times demand a clown leading the country?