Clacton does not reflect the country as a whole

Conducting a poll in by-election with 34 candidates is not easy, but what we have suggests that Nigel Farage will win 60-70 per cent of the vote in Clacton, but on a smaller turnout.  Whether beating someone dressed as a garbage can is a triumph is another matter.   Voters there may well get a chance in the autumn to choose between the normal political parties.

It appears that constituents don't care that Farage carries out none of the duties of a constituency MP which would cause a storm in most seats.

I thought it would be interesting to compare Clacton's demographics with those of GB as a whole and my own constituency of Warwick and Leamington.   We recently had a town council by-election in my own ward (Royal Clarendon).   The Greens won, with the Lib Dems just behind and Labour in touching distance.   The Conservatives were way behind and Reform didn't stand.

33 per cent of Clacton voters have what is described as a good education.  The figure is 51 per cent nationally and 62 per cent in W & L.  Gross household income is £33,147 in Clacton, £42,397 nationally and £46,828 in the Royal Spa and Warwick.   Deprivation is indexed at 64 per cent in Clacton, 51 per cent nationally and 43 per cent in my neck of the woods.

The mean age in Clacton is 56.6, as against 49.8 nationally and 47.6 in W & L.  Clacton is 96 per cent ethically white compared with 83 per cent nationally and 82 per cent in W & L.  We have a large Sikh community and have had a Sikh mayor  In addition, there is a large Portuguese speaking population, many of them Brazilians.   Areas which have very few ethnic minorities tend to be most concerned about immigration as an issue.

It's interesting that voters who clearly have many economic challenges think that a party backed by billionaires is going to help them surmount then,

Reform voters analysed

An important new study of Reform has been carried out under the supervision of electoral studies guru Sir John Curtice: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/02/reform-uk-support-could-plateau-relies-on-conservative-views-study-finds

After listening to Sir John on Radio 5 this morning, my take home message is slightly different from that of The Guardian.  Yes, as we long suspected, there is a glass ceiling to Reform support, but it may be at a level which could make them the largest party in the Commons which would enable them to conclude a confidence and supply agreement with the Tory rump and the Democratic Unionists.  I have seen 'Conform' at work in Warwickshire.

A key point made by Sir John was that at a time when voters have become increasingly disengaged from parties, a high proportion of Reform voters say they are 'very strong' supporters.  In other words, there is hard core of support.

A few comments on the by-election

 

I haven't a lot that is original to add to the analysis that has already appeared on the Gorton and Denton by-election.   I did find the Substack contributions of Manchester-based political scientist Rob Ford in the run up to the election very helpful, not least in understanding the complex electoral geography of the constituency.

I am a little surprised at ow little comment there has been on the performance of a credible Conservative candidate, at a time when there is supposed to be a revival in enthusiasm about Kamikaze.

It is also worth bearing in mind that governments do not always lose by-elections: the Blair Government lost none in its first term.

I also find it concerning that over 10,000 electors were prepared to vote for a chancer parachuted into the constituency who in my view expressed opinions that some would regard as racist.  He also came across as a nasty piece of work and a bad loser.

So I am still looking at political asylum destinations.  Apparently my first choice, Finland, is very strict about applications.  You have to declare your intentions on arrival and are then sent to an unpleasant camp.

Luxembourg looks more promising.  Admittedly their adverts urging people to come to live in the Grand Duchy are targeted at youngsters in finance, but I did give some help to the University of Luxembourg when it was getting off the ground.   It also offers free public transport.

Time to catch up with Guy Bland, the fictitious MP for Borestshire South.   Bland has always been a Starmer loyalist and like many in the PLP thinks there is not a credible candidate in the PLP to replace him.   Letting Burnham stand in the by-election would have cost Labour the Manchester mayor's position and the campaign would have cost a party short of money around £1 million.

He does think that Laboir should realise that graduates are among its core voters and something needs to be done about an essentially unfair student loans system, especially those on Phase 2 loans.   Almost all the cost of higher education has been placed on the individual although there are clear societal benefits.

Blamd's loyalty hss been repaid with his appointment as an assistant whip, not for a region as is more usual but for Labour MPs in predomunantly rural seats (albeit difficult to define).   The concordat between the PM and the NFU at least gives him a decent start.  Because all government posts that can be renumerated have been take up, the post will be unpaid.

In his private life his wife, a former BBC religious broadcaster, has felt a call to the priesthood and is hoping to go to theological college when their child is a little older.   Taking communion in Felpersham cathedral, she felt the Real Presence.

Attending a CoE primary school and sharing a flat with a theology PhD (which involved inviting a  priest to Sunday lunch) have given me a lay interest in theological matters, developed further when I spent several years as chair of the friends of my local parish church.   However, the doctrine of transubstantiation has always caused me problems and is one reason why I am not a communicant member of the CoE.  I can still remember a three hour argument with two Catholic colleagues about the topic and I have no wish to repeat it.

Have we reached peak Reform?

Some recent polls have suggested a dip in support for Reform.   One swallow does not make a summer, but perhaps something is happening.

Despite the defection of yet another washed up, tax avoiding Tory, KemiKaze does seem to be getting more of a grip on her party,   She has improved at PMQs, admittedly from a low base.

Who watches PMQs?   Not that many, but it does affect the party mood and also media judgments.

Starmer's U-turns have helped her, although I think the whole concept of a U-turn impoverishes politics.  It discourages governments from ditching failed policies.

Badenoch also has a narrative in terms of fiscal conservatism or tackling the welfare bill.   Given that state pensions account for around half of all welfare payments, it would be more convincing if she was prepared to ditch the triple lock, but we all know the electoral politics of that.

The Conservative brand is a well entrenched one, so Reform may find it hard to displace if voters think Farage is a bit like a dodgy second hand car salesman.

Anyway, I am delighted that my copy of the British General Election of 2024 is on its way to me.

Who are the party members?

Lots of fascinating data (if you're into that sort of thing) from the party members project at Queen Mary, University of London: https://esrcpartymembersproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/britains-party-members-bale-et-al.pdf?fbclid=IwY2xjawPRxt9leHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETA5dUZXU2luUVV3Yzk3QWpic3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHoq22_LuKr8v0ccAP850ntyJqxYl2CWbOSWTN-qEXqe4M8DOAobOQAP33s3V_aem_wu0345rfOoflVFJEVSrieg

The study concludes: 'What comes over most strongly, however, is that we increasingly appear to be seeing not just five parties but two blocs – something that, as the British Election Study has recently shown, also appears to be true in the case of voters. On the one side, we have the members of the so-called ‘progressive’ parties (the Greens, Labour and the Lib Dems). On the other, we have the members of the Conservatives and Reform UK.

 There is still variation within the blocs, but there is, in all sorts of ways, something of a gulf emerging between them. Seen negatively, this suggests a worrying degree of polarisation. Seen positively, it suggests that the fragmentation of the party system may not make coming up with a stable government (albeit one vehemently opposed by whichever bloc doesn’t make it into office) as hard as some imagine.

 If members matter to party leaders – and our research since 2015 suggests to us that they do – then those who belong to parties in either of those two blocs could well support the kind of post-electoral (and even, perhaps, pre-electoral) pacts that may make coalition formation, should it prove necessary, easier.

A coalition may not prove necessary, of course. At the time of writing, observers seem convinced that Reform UK will win an overall majority. If that does come to pass, we hope that those same observers won’t give all the credit to the party’s leader, Nigel Farage. Reform’s members didn’t make him leader, but their efforts may well help to make him prime minister. Also, if he doesn’t make it to Downing Street, then the leaders of those parties determined to stop him will, at least in part, have their own foot soldiers to thank.'

Is an anti-woke visa for me?

Rumours of a pre-election merger between the Conservatives and Reform have been denied, but it's effectively what happened in Canada.    Having one party on the right to defend privilege has a certain logic.   However, at the moment all that is happening is that every second rate Tory rat is deserting a sinking ship as Kemi Kaze does her best to re-establish the Tories as the 'nasty' party.

So I had better resume my search for a bolt hole.  With the cooperation of a former Tory candidate, Russia is offering three year 'anti-woke' visas.  I have never really understood what 'woke' means, but as I nap  a lot I probably don't qualify.  Anyway I don't share my gardener's view that Putin is a colossus of the 21st century as he stands up to the Ukranian Nazis.   To me he looks like a man searching for some justification to attack the Baltic States.

I wondered if I ought to start in the British Isles.   I have had a couple of excellent holidays in Jersey in the past few years (superb fish suppers), but the population density and traffic would get me down.  Anyway, I am not rich enough to qualify.

Guernsey is said to be more 'understated', i.e., down market.   When I was briefly approving graduate courses for our new medical school, I was astonished to be told that all the staff on a new MSc in Cosmetic Dentistry lived there.   I started to probe gently as to how they would get to classes and they told me that some of them had qualified as pilots and they had their own fleet of small planes called DentAir.

Alderney intrigues me. but I have never been there and jt is far too remote.   Perhaps I should look at the Isle of Man which has some great scenery and is a less expensive place to live.

The 1970s show: ungovernability is back

I am no fan of Rod Liddle, a right-wing head banger and Millwall supporter.   But he make a good point in his latest Spectator article.   Keir Starmer has the worst ratings of any prime minister in modern history, but Liddle points out that each successive prime minister in recent times has had worse ratings than his or her predecessor.

This leads Liddle to the question, is Britain ungovernable?   Of course, there is a risk of reinventing he wheel: there was such a debate on ungovernability in the 1970s featuring the late Tony King and Sam Brittan.   The general conclusion was one of government overload: government tried to do too much and ended up doing little of it well.

However, government today probably faces an electorate than has more expectations and sense of entitlement than in the 1970s.   One can see why many voters are disillusioned: taxes are up, but public services are seen as deteriorating.   Young people cannot get on the housing ladder in a way that was still possible in the 1970s (inflation paradoxically helped by reducing the real value of loans).

An analysis carried out for Hope not Hate shows that Reform voters are a rather variegated and in some ways contradictory group.   What I suspect does unite them is a 'none of the above' feeling: all other parties have failed, so Reform couldn't be worse.

This week Reform has to appear at the CBI conference to explain and justify its economic policies.   There has been some rowing back from the rasher promises, but will the attempt to appear responsible undermine their raw populist appeal?

Given that they are billed as the government as waiting, it is surprising that they are not winning more local government by-elections.   It is the Lib Dems and Greens who seem to be doing well with even the Conservatives winning the odd seat.  In line with the polls the Labour vote has tanked.

What is driving Reform voters?

For the avoidance of doubt Keir Starmer did not say that Reform's voters or leaders were racist, merely that some of its policies are.

Probably most Reform voters or prospective voters are driven by frustration over the cost of living (especially for basics such as food or energy which hit the poorest harder) or the deterioration in public services.   The mainstream parties are perceived as being unable to tackle these issues.

A small minority are racist, attracted from other movements, and rather more could be described as xenophobic in the sense that they dislike or are prejudiced against those from other countries.   Again some of them might argue that they are simply against uncontrolled migration, especially when it is illegal.

What does concern me is that there appears to be a growth in intolerance of difference and that more people think it is ok to use racist, sexist or homophobic language.

For example, here in Warwickshire the Reform controlled county council has secured its policy to ban the flying of pride flags from County Hall (with the support of the Conservatives).    One might say that that is merely symbolic, except that nothing in politics is merely symbolic, especially when it comes to the display of flags.

The LGBTQ movement in Warwickshire has stated that not only was their Pride festival vandalised (admittedly not for the first time), but there has been an increase in homophobic conduct.   It's not so long ago that male homosexuality was a crime.  Sexual identity is a personal matter.  As Trudeau Snr. said, the state has no place in the bedrooms of the nation.

Andy Burnham's self promotion as a prime ministerial candidate simply gives fuel to the right-wing media and its running dogs such as Chris Mason and allows Labour to be portrayed as a divided party.  Yes, he has been a good mayor of Manchester, but Boris Johnson seemed to be quite a good Mayor of London or at least performed the role well (most of his better ideas came from his deputy and his aides). The King of the North should stay in his realm.

Labour, meanwhile, needs to improve on the 'vision thing', but above all delivery.

Are Reform voters storming to the polls?

I have been looking at recent local by-election results to see what they say about voter intentions, but I have to admit the picture is a rather confused one: first, because of the vagaries of the first past the post system; second, because of local factors; and, third, because turnout is often low.

On the first point, the Liberal Democrats gained a seat from the Conservatives in Bournemouth with 32.4 per cent of the vote.  Reform came second on 28 per cent and I suspect they took votes from the Conservatives on 27.4 per cent.

On the second point, the New Ham Independents took a seat from Labour, although I am far from clear what they stand for.  One of the best results for Reform was in Trowbridge, which I at first thought was in Wiltshire, but is actually in Wales.   Labour are taking a beating in the polls there, although the Plaid are neck and neck with Reform in the opinion polls.

On the third point, one has to assume that Reform voters would be more motivated to turn out in a general election.

Here in the Royal Spa, Labour won the Clarendon ward yesterday, having lost there to the Lib Dems in the county council elections.   The margin was again very tight between Labour and the Lib Dems with Reform polling around 15 per cent.  In nearby Kenilworth the Greens held on to a seat with 40 per cent of the vote, Reform receiving 18 per cent. This means that the Green-Labour coalition remains in place on Warwick District Council.

Once again we have to remind ourselves that a general election is not imminent and Labour MP are unlikely to vote out their own government so that they can place their seats at risk so that Nigel Farage can be prime minister.

I think it is more likely than not that the Conservatives will have a new leader by next summer.   Replacing a Labour leader is more difficult even given the strength of the northern wind.

The BBC is now taking the line that it is platforming Reform because they are running at around 28-30 per cent in the opinion polls.  I don't recall that rule applying when the Conservatives were in office.   In any case as the Lib Dems have been at around 14/15 per cent on that basis they should get half as much coverage as Reform instead of being almost invisible.

If Reform's policies and personalities were challenged more by the BBC, ITV and Sky it is possible that voters might start to have doubts about their fitness to govern.   However, quite of the lot of the Reform vote is arguably a 'none of the above' vote.  The Tories failed after 14 years, Labour failed after 14 months (!) so why not try something different?

Having said all that, I can still visualise the nightmare of King William V having to welcome Farage as prime minister and I am continuing to consider contingency plans for leaving the country.

A general election in two years?

I have known Professor Sir John Curtice since he was a DPhil student at Oxford so when he said on Friday in a long essay on the BBC website that Reform had every chance of being the largest party after the next general election, I took it very seriously.  He is the doyen of electoral studies in this country and scrupulously non-partisan.

Nigel Farage has said that he anticipates a general election by 2026.   The Goodwin Sands expects it even sooner, and the lady journo who is a tax exile in Dubai wants it imminently.

So how might an early general election come about and what would the Conservatives do as a rump party? The usual scenario is a deepening of the fiscal crisis.

Don't expect the IMF to act as a deus ex machina.   Even in the so-called (Treasury exaggerated) crisis of 1976, they didn't ask for a general election or even a change of prime minister or chancellor, just for some changes in policy.  But as I explained in an earlier post the IMF is not what it was nor is the UK so reliant on dollars.

So apparently Labour MPs will bring down their own government.  I am still puzzling out this case of turkeys voting for an early Christmas.

Someone did suggest on X that the King (whomsoever he might be) could dissolve Parliament on his own initiative, otherwise why have a King?   Well, the monarch has to abide by the constitution (or its conventions).    However, given that members of the royal family have apparently contracted cancer as result of being vaccinated for covid, I suppose anything is possible.

BTW, I don't know what is more dangerous, platforming an arson advocate or giving credence to opponents of vaccination.   I had measles when I was seven and I was really ill, but it can be a killer for young children.

OK, but let's assume that Labour has fallen and Reform is the largest party.   What do the Conservatives do?  Here in Warwickshire they have neither supported nor opposed Reform, i.e., let them form a cabinet while saying they will judge policy case by case.

I think they hope that Reform will self destruct and it does seem that they are starting to recognise that most of the county council's funding is committed by statute (plus SEND parents and relatives of the elderly will certainly kick up a fuss if their support is restricted  even more).   Cutting out a cycle way and stopping a small spend on Net Zero doesn't allow you to reduce council tax.

Meanwhile, migrants occupy a one time Hilton hotel a couple of miles from County Hall.  I went by on the bus the other day and was shocked to see some of them out jogging.

Another possible political scenario is that the Conservatives defenestrate the hapless Badenoch and go for generic leadership.   I don't like Jenrick or his policies (he appears to be taking an even harder line that Reform on migration) but he is smart and effective and could claw back some of those on the right for the Conservatives.

BTW, I don't think that the Party With No Name/Green electoral alliance is quite as straightforward as it looks.  It could well work in major cities or those like Brighton, but it seems to me that the rural Green vote is more conservative than socialist, trying to preserve a 'heritage' countryside free of pylons, solar farms and wind towers.

Nevertheless, I am not ruling out Nigel Farage in Downing Street and I am starting to think about which other country I might live in.

19-year old leader says Tories and Lib Dems are toast

The 19-year old leader of Warwickshire County Council strode confidently on to the steps of Shire Hall this week and predicted that the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats were finished.

This seemed a slightly odd claim given that he had been elected leader in a 23-23 tied vote against a Liberal Democrat, the Reform chair of the council using his casting vote.

My confidence in his ability to lead the cash strapped council was not enhanced when he proposed spending £190k on special political assistants to come up with new ideas.   He said that council officials has not responded to a challenge to come up with fresh ideas, but their job is to implement the plans of the political leadership.   Evidently these do not exist.

In addition local councils are effectively agents for implementing existing legislation and government policies.  Thus, county councils may assess individual SEND cases differently, but they have to have an effective SEND policy - which costs a large part of their budget along with adult social care.

Leaving aside the fact that a general election is three or four years away (despite the predictions from the Goodwin Sands that Labour will somehow spontaneously combust), the Lib Dems seem to be holding their own in local by-elections while the record of Reform is patchy, losing some seats they have had to defend.

As for the Conservatives, their still have a brand.   At some point they will decide that Kemi Kaze is not the answer and will opt either to appeal to Reform voters and appoint Generic (who knows how to do a Tik Tok stunt) or decide to be a One Nation party again and elect James Not So Cleverley (whose appeal is that he is sold rather than clever).

Or they get Penny Mordaunt back and she could point both ways.   In any event they are not finished.

BTW, I have one thing in common with Councilllor Finch.   Anyone who can work out what it is will win a small prize (yet to be determined).

The popularity of populism

The picture is really rather mixed.   Canada returned a centrist internationalist as its prime minister, although the margin wasn't large and hotheads in Alberta are talking of seceding.

Rather unusually Australia elected a left of centre government for a second term, rejecting the hard right opposition.  Now Romania has chosen a centrist liberal president over a hard right choice.

But then in Portugal far right Chega has broken the two party duopoly to become the second largest party in the legislature.     In the Netherlamds and Austria far right parties have received the largest share of the vote in the last two years.  They are also strong in Germany, Belgium, Sweden and Finland.   Italy offers an example of right-wing pragmatism, while the picture in France is currently confused with the Republicans choosing the hard right interior minister as leader.

In the UK Reform made substantial gains in the local government elections, albeit on low turnouts and focused on certain parts of the country.   However, it was enough to encourage right-wing newspapers to big up Nigel Farage as the next prime minister, not to forget the platform he is given by the BBC.

In my own ward the Liberal Democrats swept home with nearly 2,000 votes with every other party getting a few hundred each.   Reform got 370.

I know only one lady who backs Reform.   Somewhat paradoxically, she volunteers in a Global South charity shop.   However, she complains that going to the shop she hears people speaking other than English.

I don't generally eavesdrop on conversations as I walk along the street.   I doubt whether most foreign speakers are abusing me, but if they are saying 'Look at that fat, stupid Gammon' I wouldn't understand anyway.

The available evidence suggests that there is a hard core of Reform voters who also voted for UKIP, the Brexit Party and Leave in the referendum.   Typically, they are older working class white males living in deprived areas.   Thus Reform made big inroads in North Warwickshire, but made little headway in the south of the county.

However, it is evident that Reform also attracted some younger voters and more women than in the past.  In many ways this was a 'none of the above' vote.   There is plenty of evidence of failing public services and a lack of confidence in the mainstream parties to fix these problems, albeit it seems a bit hard to expect Labour to fix problems in ten months that have built up over 14 years.

More specifically, Reform have filled an unoccupied space in an increasingly complex political spectrum: conservative on social issues, especially immigration, but leaning left on standard economic issues, e.g., public ownership of public utilities and 'national champions'.   It was a space the remnants of the Social Democrats such as Rod Liddle - but they lacked a charismatic, high profile leader.

Anyway one can't predict 2029 general election results from 2025 local elections, although Nick Clegg may have a point when he says that the Lib Dems could face another coalition challenge.