Brexit regrets, but little appetite for change

A report on the attitude of voters to Brexit shows that they feel negatively about the course it has taken so far and are pessimistic about future prospects.  However, relatively few would change their vote (albeit more Leavers) and there is little appetite for a new referendum and a real sense of fatugue wth the whole debate: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/UKICE-Exploring-Bregret.pdf

Familiar challenges, new solutions?

This is a good summary of the economic performance and institutional challenges facing the UK: https://options2040.co.uk/economic-growth-and-the-productivity-puzzle-the-choices/

As someone who has been following the economic performance debate since the mid 1960s, it doesn't tell me much that is new, but that in a sense just reinforces the size of the challenge, particularly given the fiscal constraints.

Whilst the UK clearly needs a systematic industrial strategy rather than the ad hoc one we have at present, we need to learn from the policy mistakes of the past.

Short termism: the British disease

Short termism is a British disease.  It is driven by an over active stock market, now reinforced by the activities of hedge funds and private equity companies.  Short termism is not the only reason the UK has a chronic productivity problem. but it is certainly part of the picture.

I was struck by the following comment in the Financial Times yesterday about the success of Aldi and Lidl: 'Being private allows Aldi and Lidl to keep prying eyes at bay and not be held to ransom by shareholders if they do not meet their sales or profit forecasts.;

The chief executive of Aldi for the UK and Ireland said 'this is an absolutely tremendous strength of our business.  It means we can make very long-term decisions even when the road is bumpy.'

Solving or at least tackling the productivity problem may require structural change that is not politically feasible.

My failed bid for membership of the new elite

I have been puzzling for some time whether I am a member of Matt Goodwin's new elite which is apparently calling the shots in the country although we have a Conservative Government.  I can't say I feel very powerful: after all, I was on the losing side of Brexit.   I drive a 08 registration car, often shop in Tesco and support two unfashionable football clubs (Charlton and Leamington).

One of the criteria for membership is an elite education at a Russell Group university.  I went to Leicester, Strathclyde and Exeter.  But I did teach at Warwick for over 40 years so I have given myself a score of 0.5 on that one.

The new elite, we are told, has shifted behind left-leaning parties.  I did join the Labour Party once Corbyn had gone so I suppose I score 1.0 there.

Apparently new elite members are descended from the professional and managerial classes.  I was the first person in my family to go to university.  My father was a carriage and wagon fitter and my mother was a hairdresser.  0.0

There is a new epistemic class which filters what is desirable or not in the national conversation.  I can't recall ever having much influence on anything, except possibly the wider use of biological controls as an alternative to chemical pesticides.  0.0

As for galleries, I am an active supporter of Compton Verney here in Warwickshire, but have no say on exhibitions policy.  0.0

The new elite live in enclaves in affluent or trendy districts in London or university towns.  Leamington Spa could count as a university town, but the really rich people here are associated with the Silicon Spa games industry. I bought my house when it was far less fashionable.   0.5

Likely to marry members of tthe elite graduate class.  My late wife was a graduate and taught in a CFE.  My current partner left school at 16 and worked her way up in the oil and gas industries to middle management.   0.5

So 2.5 out of 7.   I don't think I qualify.

Rishi Sunak the motorists' friend

The Conservatives think that the ULEZ issue could badly damage Labour in London and are hoping that a more general appeal to motorists across the country will win them votes.  Given that there is evidence of voter concern about climate change and other green issues, they need to be careful.

Lord Hayward, a Tory peer and veteran pollster, said in The Times that the “politics of the motor car” would have an “impact on a lot of people’s voting intentions and it is going to be something the Tory party focuses on”.

Analysis by The Times shows that one in five of Labour’s London constituencies is a marginal seat — 13 out of 49. Of those, two are already in an Ulez zone and 11 will be by August. 

Potentially the most vulnerable Labour MP in London is Jon Cruddas, who holds the Dagenham & Rainham constituency with a mere majority of 293. He has been publicly critical of the expansion of Ulez, saying that it is not fair to do it during a cost of living crisis. Another marginal seat is Ilford North, which is the constituency of Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary.'

An economist’s critique

Meanwhile, economics guru David Smith criticised ULEZ midweek in the paper.    Following Adam Smith, 'Good taxes should meet the conditions of fairness, certainty (people should know how much they must pay), convenience (taxes should be easy to pay) and efficiency (collection costs should not be too high relative to revenue).

The £12.50 daily charge for people driving cars within the zone, when it is expanded to all London boroughs in just over a month’s time, plainly fails the fairness test.

A Nissan Micra with a 1 litre engine, first registered in the early 2000s, will have to pay the charge, while a more recent 4.2 litre petrol Jaguar will not. An eight-year-old small diesel hatchback will pay it, while a newer massive diesel-guzzling SUV, the kind you often see on the school run, will not.

Not all older cars are driven by people on lower incomes, but the correlation is close. Unlike London’s congestion charge, which offers a 90 per cent reduction for residents within its zone, anybody moving their non-exempt car, perhaps to a parking place nearer their home, must pay it in full. Policing it requires a network of cameras, which has Big Brother implications, and the infrastructure has been costed in the hundreds of millions, calling into question its tax efficiency.

Nobody would argue with improving air quality in London but there are better ways. Tim Leunig, who as a Treasury adviser was instrumental in the introduction of Sunak’s furlough scheme, has suggested some, including requiring people to have compliant cars when they change their vehicles, that do not hit them immediately.'

I would suggest that people read my book Autos, Smog and Pollution Control but even a second hand copy now costs over £100!

Some quick points:

1. ULEZ is aimed at ground level (substratopsheric) air pollution, not climate change.
2. There is good evidence that air pollution from vehicles is impairing Londoners' health.  OK, the underground may be even more of a risk.
3. ULEZ would benefit from a more generous scrappage scheme, but the Government has turned down a request for additional funds saying it is a devolved matter.
4. In areas like Uxbridge transport into London is acceptable, but more needs to be done to improve  local links.

Some by-election takeaways

I have known John Curtice since he was a DPhil student at Nuffield and I don't pretend to have his knowledge of elections, not to mention many others.  But here are a few takeaways from last night:

• By-elections are a poor guide to a general election over a year away.   The turnout in all three seats was below 50 per cent, suggesting a lot of Conservatives sat on their hands,
• The Conservatives played the ULEZ card well in Uxbridge, but then the new MP put all the blame on the Mayor which suits Starmer.   No praise for Sunak.
• Labour has never won the seat in this area even in 1997.   This is 'Mon Repos' territory, remember the Betjeman poem abour Ruislip Gardens tube?  It has changed, of course.
• The economy may well recover by next autumn, but this happened in 1997 and the Conservative still lost.   As then, voters are concerned about the state of public services despite historically high levels of taxation.
• The age of the new MP for Selby is not a disqualification, we need his generation in the Commons to tell us what a rough deal they have had.
• Greg Hands tried to spin the results as a victory, the worst effort since the flagship boroughs (copyright Lord Baker).
• Johnny Mercer may think he is an effective attack dog.  He digs a hole and keeps digging.
• The Lib Dems are back in contention in the west country after being punished over Brexit and the coalition.
• It looks as if the electorate are voting tactically to oust the Conservatives

Article on CBI free to view

My article on recent challenges at the CBI should be available free to view for a month: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-923X.13295

What will happen to the CBI?

 My thoughts here: https://politicalquarterly.org.uk/blog/the-crisis-at-the-cbi/

Johnson's unpopularity

A few salient points about Boris Johnson from Rob Ford's Swingometer blog.

With Boris Johnson’s shock resignation from Parliament returning him to the headlines, the Conservatives once again have a 'Life of Brian Problem'. A sizeable chunk of Conservative MPs and members believe Boris Johnson is the Messiah. Another sizeable chunk see Johnson not as the Messiah, but as a very naughty boy.¹ This argument has broken out multiple times since ITV’s revelations of parties in Downing Street during lockdown began the long and ugly process of Johnson’s decline and fall. Here we go again.

While Conservative politicians struggle to weigh the merits and flaws of Johnson, the public do not. Johnson wasn’t a popular politician when he led the Conservatives to victory in 2019, he certainly wasn’t popular when forced from office last summer, and he isn’t popular now. There is no great yearning for his triumphant return. His impact on perceptions of his party has been entirely negative for close to two years. Electorally, he is an albatross around the neck of his successors.

Johnson’s unpopularity is not new. Though he won a large majority in December 2019, he was not personally popular before or during that campaign. Johnson is usually contrasted positively with Theresa May, the ‘Maybot’ of 2017. Yet Johnson was less popular at every point of the 2019 general election campaign than Theresa May had been at the equivalent point in the 2017 campaign (see figure 1). And it was May who did most of the work of attracting Leave voters to the Conservatives’ banner, in particular achieving large swings in the ‘red wall’ where in most cases she fell short. But in doing so she set up Johnson’s subsequent victory.

The collapsing green wall

Never mind the blue wall and the red wall.  Is the Conservative 'green wall' collapsing?

A survey of over 1,000 in England's 100 most rural constituencies for the Country Land and Business Association revealed a 18 per cent swing away from the Conservatives and a 16 per cent boost for Labour compared with the 2019 general election.   The Liberal Democrats won just 13 per cent of the support of those polled.

If replicated in 2024 20 of the most 96 rural seats held by the Conservatives would change hands.    Among the most vulnerable are Defra farming minister Mark Spencer (Sherwood); Jacob Rees-Mogg (North East Somerset); Liam Fox (North Somerset); and Jeremy Hunt (South West Surrey).

More here: https://www.cla.org.uk/news/rural-wall-collapsing-as-conservative-support-in-rural-england-falls-by-18-points/

Who will voter ID hurt?

Political scientist Phil Cowley gives his views on the voter ID issue: ' It won't be as big a problem as the raw figs appear, because turnout is low anyway and the sort of people who vote in local elections are the sort who will either have ID or go back home to get it.  [I’m not so sure about that].

It will still be a problem, with multiple vox pops with disgruntled voters, and enough to create a storm. These will not all be left-leaning young people either; suspect plenty of pensioners will get caught out.

While I don't personally accept the arguments for voting ID (esp in a country without ID cards), they do not, to many voters, sound outrageous.  This is especially true of the "there are so few cases of it" claim, where the obvious "but how would you know?" retort works.

If the policy isn't changed before the General Election, it will be a much bigger problem then. It won't be changed before the General Election.

I do think this is being driven by perceptions of political advantage, rather than genuine concern about electoral integrity.  My suspicion (and here I really am just guessing) is that it may end up being much messier in partisan terms than people suspect; it would be ironic if lots of Conservative voters got stuffed by it.

It will work in all sorts of ways, including resources going towards ensuring voters have ID, that otherwise would be spent elsewhere. 11. One effect (ironically) might be to drive even more people towards postal votes.'

Can the CBI survive?

The crisis at the CBI has deepened following further disturbing revelations and a number of leading firms have resigned.   They include Aviva, BMW, Jaguar Land Rover, John Lewis, Mastercard and Vodafone.

The CBI claims to speak for 190,000 businesses, but the number is boosted by the fact that it has a hybrid membership model made up of individual businesses and trade associations.  Hence it can claim to represent the 46,000 members of the National Farmers' Union.

It is difficult to work out how many individual companies there are in membership, but the Financial Times estimates there are about 700.   These companies pay the bulk of the £20m subscriptions.  It is thought that some companies pay over £100,000 a year.

The CBI has now suspended activities until June, but can it recover?   Who else can speak for business? MakeUK and HospitalityUK effectively represent their sectors.  The Institute of Directors have individual members.   The British Chambers of Commerce are made up of local chambers of varying strength and largely speak for smaller businesses.

If the CBI disappeared, it would have to be reinvented.  Business interests are in many ways divergent, but there are common concerns about macro economic policy such as corporate taxation.   However, a new organisation based on big businesses might lack legitimacy.

The CBI in crisis

The CBI has suspended all its external events including its annual dinner after it deals with allegations of rape, sexual harassment and other misconduct at then organisation.

A number of members have distanced themselves from the CBI, some saying that they are reviewing their membership.   Of course, it could give them a convenient excuse to leave.

The allegations are being investigated by a law firm, but there are deeper structural problems at the voice of British business.

These can be dated back to the late 1960s when it decided to become a de facto Confederation of British Business by admitting retailers and other non-manufacturing firms as full members.  Although that may have boosted income as the manufacturing sector declined, it diluted the CBI's voice as a spokesperson for manufacturing.   That vacuum has been partly filled by MakeUK, formerly the Engineering Employers' Federation.

The CBI reached the peak of its persuasive power in the 1970s as a part of a tripartite arrangement for economic policy.  Its voluntary prices initiative helped to shore up the Heath Government's prices and incomes policy.  The 1974-79 Labour Government often referred to the 'Government, the TUC and the CBI' in the Queen's Speech.

As far as Mrs Thatcher was concerned, the CBI was a relic of harmful corporatism and its influence waned.  It did recover some ground under the Major Government and New Labour, but government increasingly consulted directly with leading firms, sometimes formalised in business advisory councils.

With business being overwhelmingly remain, Boris Johnson had little time for their views as he expressed with an expletive.  

Weathering this crisis and remaining a credible voice of business is going to be challenging.

Farmer support for Conservatives falls

Farmer support for the Conservatives has fallen below 50 per cent for the first time in living memory.  A survey by Farmers Weekly shows that just 42 per cent would vote Conservative if there was a general election tomorrow.

This compares with 57 per cent who said they would vote Conservative a year ago and 72 per cent in 2020.

Those farmers leaving the Conservatives are split almost equally between Labour and Liberal Democrats, each attracting 23 per cent of the farming vote.

In Scotland 38 per cent backed the Conservatives, followed by the SNP at 30 per cent.   In Wales 44 per cent said they would vote Conservative.   Labour and the Liberal Democrats got 19 per cent each and Plaid Cymru 15 per cent.

Owner occupiers were more strongly Conservative at 56 per cent, but their support among tenant farmers was just 22 per cent.   This group preferred the Liberal Democrats.

If these trends continue, they will not help in blue wall seats vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats.  Apart from farmers, there are many contractors and suppliers who depend on agricultural prosperity.