Have we reached peak Reform?

Some recent polls have suggested a dip in support for Reform.   One swallow does not make a summer, but perhaps something is happening.

Despite the defection of yet another washed up, tax avoiding Tory, KemiKaze does seem to be getting more of a grip on her party,   She has improved at PMQs, admittedly from a low base.

Who watches PMQs?   Not that many, but it does affect the party mood and also media judgments.

Starmer's U-turns have helped her, although I think the whole concept of a U-turn impoverishes politics.  It discourages governments from ditching failed policies.

Badenoch also has a narrative in terms of fiscal conservatism or tackling the welfare bill.   Given that state pensions account for around half of all welfare payments, it would be more convincing if she was prepared to ditch the triple lock, but we all know the electoral politics of that.

The Conservative brand is a well entrenched one, so Reform may find it hard to displace if voters think Farage is a bit like a dodgy second hand car salesman.

Anyway, I am delighted that my copy of the British General Election of 2024 is on its way to me.

Who are the party members?

Lots of fascinating data (if you're into that sort of thing) from the party members project at Queen Mary, University of London: https://esrcpartymembersproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/britains-party-members-bale-et-al.pdf?fbclid=IwY2xjawPRxt9leHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETA5dUZXU2luUVV3Yzk3QWpic3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHoq22_LuKr8v0ccAP850ntyJqxYl2CWbOSWTN-qEXqe4M8DOAobOQAP33s3V_aem_wu0345rfOoflVFJEVSrieg

The study concludes: 'What comes over most strongly, however, is that we increasingly appear to be seeing not just five parties but two blocs – something that, as the British Election Study has recently shown, also appears to be true in the case of voters. On the one side, we have the members of the so-called ‘progressive’ parties (the Greens, Labour and the Lib Dems). On the other, we have the members of the Conservatives and Reform UK.

 There is still variation within the blocs, but there is, in all sorts of ways, something of a gulf emerging between them. Seen negatively, this suggests a worrying degree of polarisation. Seen positively, it suggests that the fragmentation of the party system may not make coming up with a stable government (albeit one vehemently opposed by whichever bloc doesn’t make it into office) as hard as some imagine.

 If members matter to party leaders – and our research since 2015 suggests to us that they do – then those who belong to parties in either of those two blocs could well support the kind of post-electoral (and even, perhaps, pre-electoral) pacts that may make coalition formation, should it prove necessary, easier.

A coalition may not prove necessary, of course. At the time of writing, observers seem convinced that Reform UK will win an overall majority. If that does come to pass, we hope that those same observers won’t give all the credit to the party’s leader, Nigel Farage. Reform’s members didn’t make him leader, but their efforts may well help to make him prime minister. Also, if he doesn’t make it to Downing Street, then the leaders of those parties determined to stop him will, at least in part, have their own foot soldiers to thank.'

Bleak reading for Labour in poll of economists

A poll of 103 leading economists in the FT today makes bleak reading for those  who hope that an economic recovery will lead to a political recovery for Labour.

Key take home messages:

• Economy will not be strong enough for 'working people' to be better off
• Two-thirds predicted more tax increases before the next election: higher taxes are seen as the path of least resistance when back bench MPs push for more spending
• Economic growth will grind along at 1-2 per cent, around 1 per cent in 2026: OBR forecast of 1.4 per cent unlikely to be beaten unless savings are run down
• Respondents were split on how much further the Bank would be able to cut interest rates
• Weak jobs market with unemployment above 5 per cent, companies likely to be stingy on pay
• There will, however, be lower inflation and energy prices

Another poll of voters commented on in the FT show that Starmer and Reeves have worse ratings that Johnson and Truss,   Can people really think that?   The FT thinks that it is the culmination of disillusionment with politicians over many years.

Finland is my choice for asylum

I have decided that Finland is the country I will flee to and seek asylum if a Reform government is elected in the UK.

One reason is that I have a long and positive association with the country.   I first went there when I was 19 and was hosted by a political science student who was entering his second year at uni like me and also shared an interest in media work.  I had my first sauna at his parents' country home and also toured the lake district.

Since then I have made a number of return visits both for holidays and to collaborate with Finnish academics.  I saw Charlton play at Oulu in the north and took my grandchildren to Lapland to see Father Christmas.  It is a relatively cold country which is one of my criteria.

The Finns fought the Russians bravely and effectively in the Winter War, although they lost Karelia.  They have now joined NATO and are fully prepared for any conflict.   They have no illusions about Putin just because he is not 'woke'.

On my last visit I went on an organised trip to a small town.  The mayor was a woman who had immigrated from the former Yugoslavia.   I visited a residential facility for the elderly and I have never seen anywhere so well designed or welcoming.

For a number of years Finns have been declared among the happiest people on the planet.  As the excellent book Finntopia makes clear Finland is not a utopia.   It has its own populist party and recent events have shown there is some racism.  The language is very difficult.  But it is relatively egalitarian like other Nordic states.

If Reform do become the government it would mean living in a country where a substantial proportion of the population had very different values from my own.   Despite living in the UK for almost 80 years, I wouldn't feel at home there any more.