Who are the party members?

Lots of fascinating data (if you're into that sort of thing) from the party members project at Queen Mary, University of London: https://esrcpartymembersproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/britains-party-members-bale-et-al.pdf?fbclid=IwY2xjawPRxt9leHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETA5dUZXU2luUVV3Yzk3QWpic3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHoq22_LuKr8v0ccAP850ntyJqxYl2CWbOSWTN-qEXqe4M8DOAobOQAP33s3V_aem_wu0345rfOoflVFJEVSrieg

The study concludes: 'What comes over most strongly, however, is that we increasingly appear to be seeing not just five parties but two blocs – something that, as the British Election Study has recently shown, also appears to be true in the case of voters. On the one side, we have the members of the so-called ‘progressive’ parties (the Greens, Labour and the Lib Dems). On the other, we have the members of the Conservatives and Reform UK.

 There is still variation within the blocs, but there is, in all sorts of ways, something of a gulf emerging between them. Seen negatively, this suggests a worrying degree of polarisation. Seen positively, it suggests that the fragmentation of the party system may not make coming up with a stable government (albeit one vehemently opposed by whichever bloc doesn’t make it into office) as hard as some imagine.

 If members matter to party leaders – and our research since 2015 suggests to us that they do – then those who belong to parties in either of those two blocs could well support the kind of post-electoral (and even, perhaps, pre-electoral) pacts that may make coalition formation, should it prove necessary, easier.

A coalition may not prove necessary, of course. At the time of writing, observers seem convinced that Reform UK will win an overall majority. If that does come to pass, we hope that those same observers won’t give all the credit to the party’s leader, Nigel Farage. Reform’s members didn’t make him leader, but their efforts may well help to make him prime minister. Also, if he doesn’t make it to Downing Street, then the leaders of those parties determined to stop him will, at least in part, have their own foot soldiers to thank.'

19-year old leader says Tories and Lib Dems are toast

The 19-year old leader of Warwickshire County Council strode confidently on to the steps of Shire Hall this week and predicted that the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats were finished.

This seemed a slightly odd claim given that he had been elected leader in a 23-23 tied vote against a Liberal Democrat, the Reform chair of the council using his casting vote.

My confidence in his ability to lead the cash strapped council was not enhanced when he proposed spending £190k on special political assistants to come up with new ideas.   He said that council officials has not responded to a challenge to come up with fresh ideas, but their job is to implement the plans of the political leadership.   Evidently these do not exist.

In addition local councils are effectively agents for implementing existing legislation and government policies.  Thus, county councils may assess individual SEND cases differently, but they have to have an effective SEND policy - which costs a large part of their budget along with adult social care.

Leaving aside the fact that a general election is three or four years away (despite the predictions from the Goodwin Sands that Labour will somehow spontaneously combust), the Lib Dems seem to be holding their own in local by-elections while the record of Reform is patchy, losing some seats they have had to defend.

As for the Conservatives, their still have a brand.   At some point they will decide that Kemi Kaze is not the answer and will opt either to appeal to Reform voters and appoint Generic (who knows how to do a Tik Tok stunt) or decide to be a One Nation party again and elect James Not So Cleverley (whose appeal is that he is sold rather than clever).

Or they get Penny Mordaunt back and she could point both ways.   In any event they are not finished.

BTW, I have one thing in common with Councilllor Finch.   Anyone who can work out what it is will win a small prize (yet to be determined).

Long Brexit in the Chiltern Hills

The Chesham & Amersham by-election result has produced considerable speculation about the crumbling of the 'blue wall' in southern England.   Here Paula Surridge reflects about the effects of 'long Brexit' that cross pressures electors in their voting choices: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/a-tale-of-two-by-elections/

Calamity Jo

After high hopes, the general election was a disaster for the Liberal Democrats, ending up with fewer seats than they had won before, even leaving aside the defectors who did not fare well. The defeat of Jo Swinson turned out to be the only really successful example of decapitation which was seen as possible for some leading Conservatives. Of course, any party that does not have a regional base like the SNP is vulnerable to a squeeze by the two main parties under a first past the post system. The Lib Dems tend to do better when Labour does well.

Arguably the first mistake, along with Labour, was to back the election, although they were under a lot of pressure to do so. However, they did have Boris Johnson in a vice like grip.

What was certainly a mistake was to pledge to revoke Article 50. Even for hard core remainers, this was often a step too far. It could be presented as anti-democratic and you can't just act as if the referendum never happened. A second referendum was contentious enough, but it would have been more plausible. As it was, it ended the Liberal Democrats' hopes in leave areas such as their former stronghold in the south-west. It did appeal in London and the south-east, but not enough, as exemplified by the narrow defeat at Wimbledon.

Jo Swinson clearly thinks that she was a victim of sexism, saying that when you break the glass ceiling you risk getting hit by fragments of glass. Clearly, there is something in this: the clothes worn by men are the subject of far less scrutiny, and apparently some people objected to her earrings.

She was increasingly vulnerable to attacks for her role as a minister in the Coalition Government. She did apologise for some decisions, but that didn't really resolve the problem. In all fairness, being a minority party in a coalition usually ends badly and the Lib Dems did moderate Conservative policies.

Even before she became leader, she had tendency to talk down to voters as if they were ill informed. They may be, but they shouldn't be patronised. As the campaign progressed, she switched more into head teacher or head girl mode, exasperated at the failure of her arguments to hit home.

Even so, Nicola Sturgeon's triumphalism at Swinson's defeat was not a pleasant moment on election night. You don't kick someone when they are down. Sturgeon tried to row back in subsequent interviews, but her efforts looked insincere.

Whither the Liberal Democrats

The Lib Dems need to find a new leader. They don't have a lot of options. Sir Ed Davey has wanted the job for a long time. He would be a safe if dull pair of hands in bad need of a charisma transplant. Also, he was a coalition minister so is vulnerable in the same way as Swinson. Private Eye has him as one of their targets.

Layla Moran is probably more likely to succeed and represents a more modern, diverse face. But how would she go down in the west country?

A wild card is 'Daisy, Daisy, give me an answer do.' The new MP for St. Albans, Daisy Cooper, is highly regarded, but she would be unlikely to stand and even more unlikely to win. Some tough times lie ahead, but they have bounced back before and have a base in local government.

Remain alliance may have limited impact

The Remain alliance of three parties may have limited impact. Sir John Curtice estimates that it could affect the outcome in six seats. Of course, that could be significant in a tight contest.

There is some anecdotal evidence that voters do not like their choice being restricted so that, for example, they can no longer vote Green. It has also been pointed out that the election is about more than Brexit.

Good analysis here, pointing out that Labour is key to the Remain Alliance achieving its goal: Conservative seats under threat

Tripping the light fantastic

A while back I was at the theatre in London and Vince Cable come into the row in front. The reaction to him showed that he was personally well liked, at any rate by a London theatre audience. I felt quite sorry for him when a Liberal Democrat bore (of whom there are many) droned on at him in the interval.

He can certainly trip the light fantastic and his ballroom dancing contrasts with May's robotic style. His personal style may be that of a 'tetchy rationalist' as Matthew Parris observed yesterday, but that probably goes down well with some voters.

But is he a good leader of a political party? No. Otherwise the Lib Dems would not be flatlining in the polls when the political weather should be quite good for them. He says he is going to stand down, which he should at 75 (don't give me Churchill), but clearly it's going to be a long goodbye.

Trying to learn from Canadian experience, but in fact turning it into something from the Daft Ideas Department, he is now advocating bringing in a leader from outside Parliament. The favoured candidate, Gina Miller, has sensibly said no way.

The Lib Dems have never had a woman as leader, and have been predominantly masculine in terms of their MPs. However, they now have two women in Parliament who could do the job: my marginal preference would be for Jo Swinson.

William Haugue (not talking about the Lib Dems) at his lovely home in Wales

However, there are more fundamental dilemmas. William Hague said that the good thing about the Coalition Government was that it would finish off the Liberal Democrats and it probably did tarnish their brand beyond repair.

Now many pin their hopes on a Social Democratic Party Mark II. There has been media speculation for months, but whether the advocates will ever come into the daylight remains to be seen.

The Social Democrats failed in part because they were a rump of the Labour Party, notably failing to attract moderate Conservatives (other than the worthy Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler). They did, however, damage Labour in the 1983 election which became 'a race for second place' and this should concern Labour now.

However, the Centre Party will not succeed. The main constraint is the first past the post system. UKIP failed to turn their votes into more than one general election seat (in one of the most barking areas of the country). When voters were offered a modest alternative in a referendum, they voted it down.

The advocates of a Centre party say that most voters identify themselves as 'centrists'. But I think this is because voters don't like to identify themselves as 'extremists', even if their views are on either end of the political spectrum.

Jo Swinson and the vacant centre

I am not a Liberal Democrat, but I have a lot of time for Jo Swinson for the work she did on under discussed issues like body image. She has given an interesting interview to The Guardian: Harder to offer simple solutions

Given that the Labour Party is consolidating its lurch to the left, and a weakened Conservative Party often seems to be held hostage by the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson, one would think that there was a ready made space in the centre for Liberal Democrats to occupy. After all, the data would suggest that there are plenty of voters in the centre of the political spectrum.

I think that they are still suffering from being in coalition with the Conservatives. At the time I thought it was the right decision as they had to show that they could be a party of government as well as a party of opposition. Swinson herself admits that she learnt a lot from being a minister, in particular the fact that there are no simple solutions to many issues and many dangers from unintended consequences.

Swinson also tackles the issue of whether it was her gender that stopped her standing as leader. Again I think it was the right decision to give 'national treasure' Sir Vince a chance to display his silky skills away from the ballroom floor. But Swinson could well be leader before the next election.

The experience so far with the Democratic Unionists suggests that one can get a lot out of a confidence and supply agreement while still maintain autonomy. But then the Democratic Unionists have demands that relate to a very specific territory and require a cash pay off. What the Liberal Democrats wanted would have been somewhat more elevated.

Labour's moderate pitch

I have now received the Labour and Liberal Democrat election leaflets for Warwick and Leamington. The cover photo of the Labour manifesto is initially a little puzzling as it contains a picture of two men, but it is not clear which of them is the candidate. However, turning over the page it is apparent that one is a 'local folding bike inventor.' Perhaps the subtle message here is that Jeremy Corbyn should get on his bike.

For there is no picture of Jezza or mention of his name. The overall message is that the candidate, county councillor Matt Western, is a moderate. He is pictured with a local business owner (a greengrocer) and reference is made to his 24 years of management experience with Peugeot. The candidate also makes it clear that he doesn't support Brexit in a constituency that voted Remain.

Nick Solman's leaflet emphasises the dangers of 'extreme hard Brexit'. There is a prominent photo of unimpressive leader Tim Farron. The candidate himself is photographed in front of the Pump Rooms and Warwick Castle.

Warwick and Leamington is a constituency that should have some potential for the Lib Dems, but they have never come close to realising it. For the Lib Dems more generally, only 7 per cent of the electorate voted Remain and select Brexit as their most important issue.

Coalition and minority government options

The last calculation of each possible coalition/minority government scenarios after the general election by Populus/Hanover gives seven options as likely (the others such as 'Labour majority' are ranked at 1.4 per cent or less):

• Labour/SNP 26.9 per cent
• Labour/Lib Dem 16 per cent
• Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/left minority 15.1 per cent
• Labour/SNP/left minority 11.6 per cent
• Conservative/Lib Dem/DUP 10.8 per cent
• Labour/Lib Dem/left minority 8.9 per cent
• Conservative/Lib Dem 5.1 per cent

A further complicating factor is that Lib Dem 'elder statesman' David Steel has claimed that the mood within the party is to accept nothing more than a 'confidence and supply' agreement with anyone.

My own take on the situation can be found here: Minority government

Who would benefit from lost Lib Dem seats?

My back of the envelope calculations suggest that of the seats that the Lib Dems have very little chance of retaining, 11 would go to the Conservatives, 10 to Labour and four to the SNP.

There are two seats I am genuinely uncertain about: Fife North East (where Ming Campbell is retiring) and Argyll & Bute which is a genuine four way marginal. The winning candidate could have just about a quarter of the votes cast. The SNP is arguably in the best position to take both seats, but it is far from certain.

A lot depends on how the SNP vote holds up between now and election day. If it starts to fade, the Lib Dems could hold on in one or two more Scottish seats. Someone who knows the Highlands thinks that Charles Kennedy could hold on Ross, Skye & Lochaber, given the time and effort he spends on going to social events in the constituency. (It's almost like a seat in the Irish Dail).

If the Lib Dems do badly, then the 50-50 seats I identified yesterday would break six to the Conservatives, two to Labour and one to the SNP.

Looking at Lib Dem seats

Given that they are currently tanking in national polls, the Liberal Democrats will depend on incumbency and local factors to retain seats in the House of Commons. 'Go back to your constituencies and prepare for holding more seats than the polls say', as one wag put it.

Where incumbents are standing down and the majority is small, they are likely to lose, e.g., Berwick, Somerton & Frome. Even where the majority is large, the seat may fall, e.g., Bath.

What follows is far from scientific and has been done largely for my own interest. I don't know most of the constituencies personally. However, I reckon that the Lib Dems have 11 bedrock seats and another eight they will probably retain. That give them 19. They have a fifty-fifty chance in another nine, so if they retain five of those, they would have 24 seats which is in the middle of most forecasts. They may gain one seat which would bring the total to 25.

90 per cent + chance of holding

• Twickenham (Vince Cable)
• Orkney & Shetland (Jo Grimond’s old seat)
• Westmorland & Lonsdale (Tim Farron, possible new leader)
• North Norfolk (Norman Lamb has a 11,000+ majority)
• Yeovil (David Laws has a 13,000+ majority)
• Leeds North West (Big majority, opposition split)
• Southport
• Colchester (Bob Russell has a big personal following)
• Thornbury & Yate
• Ceredigion (Welsh fastness)
• Bristol West (11,000+ majority)

75 per cent chance of holding

• Sheffield Hallam: Labour think they can come from third place to take Nick Clegg’s seat, but this was historically a Conservative constituency. There are plenty of students and university staff, but I’ll let you into a secret: by no means all of them are left leaning.
• Lewes: Norman Baker is popular enough to hold on
• Edinburgh West: Lib Dems can probably hold on in this former Tory seat
• Cheltenham: Liberal Democrat since 1992 and a popular local MP, losing it would be a big blow
• North Devon: Lib Dems are well dug in in Jeremy Thorpe’s old seat.
• Eastleigh: Held in by election, polls suggest they should hold on.
• Cheadle: A lot depends on how many voters go back to Labour.
• Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross: Aristo John Thurso can probably hold on in this remote seat

50 per cent chance of holding

• Carshalton & Wallington: Charismatically challenged Tom Brake is well known and well liked locally.
• Kingston & Surbiton: Tories think they can unseat energy minister Ed Davey, but he may just hang on.
• Hornsey & Wood Green: Labour may be able to edge out Lynne Featherstone.
• St Ives: Friends on the Isles of Scilly think that Andrew George is toast and that he knows it. However, there are few votes left of the Conservatives on the islands and although George has a small majority, a poll shows him just ahead.
• Chippenham: Duncan Hames may be able to hold on despite a small majority. However, one well informed individual has subsequently told me that this is unlikely. Unfortunately, his wife Jo Swinson, a campaigner on women’s issues, is unlikely to hold on in her Scottish constituency.
• Bermondsey & Southwark: Labour are confident that they can finally unseat Simon Hughes in what should be a Labour seat, but he may just be able to hang on.
• Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
Despite forecasts of the SNP wiping the board in Scotland, the Lib Dems may be able to retain David Steel’s old seat, but the Conservatives could sneak through.
• Torbay: A strong personal vote may enable Adrian Sanders to survive.
• Hazel Grove: Incumbent MP is retiring, but Lib Dems may be able to hold on.

Possible gains

Montgomeryshire, a traditional Liberal seat, now free of Lembit Opik. Watford, where the Liberal Democrat mayor is standing, is a another possible gain. An outside chance is Bosworth where the Conservative majority was just over 5,000 last time. The MP is not too popular, the Lib Dems have a strong local candidate and there is a substantial UKIP vote.

A good night for Dave

Dave Cameron has reason to be pleased with the local election results so far. BBC projections put the Conservatives on 35 per cent as against 37 per cent for Labour and 15 per cent for the Lib Dems. This is not a bad outcome for a party implementing unpopular policies. The Conservatives are also likely to be able to celebrate a big majority in the AV referendum.

In Scotland the presidential style campaign run by the canny Alex Salmond has paid off with a clear majority for the SNP. Labour may be able to take sole charge of the Welsh Assembly, but even there the result is on a knife edge. The results hardly show that voters think that they have a convincing alternative narrative or that they see Ed Miliband as a future prime minister.

Once again it is the Lib Dems who are the whipping boys for the Coalition Government. As expected, they have lost heavily in the council elections, especially in the north. There will now be increased party pressure on Nick Clegg to differntiate himself from the Conservatives.

Some of the things said in the AV referendum have left a sour taste in the mouth. It may never be glad, confident morning again, but it is not the end of the coalition. The two parties are inextricably bound together.

Lib Dems shut out at Defra

Defra is just one of three government departments that does not include a Lib Dem minister. Moreover, all the ministers in the department have strong farming links, inclining them towards a productionist agenda.

Lib Dem farm spokesman Andrew George, the MP for West Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly, has criticised the Conservative stranglehold on posts. Differences have emerged on the proposed badger cull and the decision to abolish the Agricultural Wages Board.

Mr George has been trying to work with the Secretary of State, Caroline Spelman, to have some say about how budget cuts are made. However, he has admitted that he was 'not yet in the inner circle of Defra ministers'.

Most disagreements are likely to be over matters of domestic policy such as the two that arisen already, rather than attitudes towards the CAP where both parties share a relatively liberal, market oriented stance. However, the Lib Dems are particularly attuned to the concerns of smaller farmers from whom they receive electoral support.

There was speculation that Defra would be abolished or at least re-named, but this seems to be off the agenda for now.

Nick strikes the right note

Nick Clegg and the Lib Dem leadership came away relatively unscathed from the conference at Liverpool. Delegates staged a symbolic revolt over the controversial 'free schools' issue but the real test will come at Birmingham next year when the cuts have started to bite and the AV referendum may well have been lost.

Clegg's speech was short, sober and restrained and was designed to reassure anxious delegates. It largely achieved that objective. Many of them are councillors who have experienced coalition arrangements in local government and hence are familiar with the constraints and opportunities they offer.

If the Lib Dems had not entered a coalition and forced a second election they would have suffered at the polls. As it is, they have shown they are prepared to accept the responsibilities of government. Whether they will be given any electoral credit for that is another matter.

To those who believe the Lib Dems should have entered a coalition with Labour, Clegg said that Labour had ordered the invasion of Iraq, run roughshod over Britain's civil liberties and brought the country to the bank of bankruptcy.

Clegg had one decent joke about New Labour authors: 'Never in the field of political memoirs has so much been written by so few about so little.'

Do they still agree with Nick?

The Hon. Member for East Dunbartonshire

Lib Dem MP Jo Swinson tweeted this article which defends the role of the Lib Dems in the Coalition Government: Nick

Judging from her tweets, Swinson spends much of her time on an endless tour of events in her East Dunbartonshire constituency or raising issues like the security fencing round the Milngavie (Mull-guy) Reservoir. Makes sense given that her majority was down in May.

However, her many followers were puzzled by a tweet sent out around midnight last Saturday: Yes. What can she have meant?

The AV referendum

As expected, this has been scheduled to coincide with the local and devolved elections next May in the hope of boosting turnout. One of the problems with PR as an issue is that although it excites the political class it doesn't feature in the most important isues selected by the electorate in the polls.

In many ways it will be a watershed for the coalition. If the Liberal Democrats win the referendum, then they will have got one of their most sought after lasting gains from the Coalition - although in practice AV is just a modified version of first-past-the post and isn't going to make a massive difference to outcomes. It certainly may not offset the loss of left-leaning votes the Lib Dems are likely to suffer. But, of course, it could be the start of a slippery PR slope.

If the referendum fails, which is the less likely outcome, then Liberal Democrats will be asking what they have got out of the coalition given the sacrifices they have had to make on other policies. Either way, tensions within the coalition will increase at the time that public expenditure cuts start to bite. Already the Lib Dem MP for Cheltenham is complaining about the closure of the Commission for Rural Communities quango in his constitency with the loss of 60 jobs.

My guess is that the Coalition Government will not be able to eliminate the structural deficit in the lifetime of the Parliament because the political costs will be too high. It's an ambitious target, but certainly preferable to Labour's unambitious one which would not have reassured the financial markets. However, I think there may be some trimming as the electoral cycle progresss and if the strictural deficit is reduced by, say, three-quarters, that will be a result.

Lib Dem blogger gives it large

A Lib Dem blogger gives it large in response to an invitation from Derek Simpson of Unite to tear up his membership card. Amusing and to the point: Unite (What is more the guy is an ice hockey fan, Edinburgh Capitals I presume).

Thanks to my fave Lib Dem MP Jo Swinson for tweeting this link.

Hughes favourite in deputy leader race

Left-leaning Bermondsey MP Simon Hughes is emerging as the hot favourite in the contest for Deputy Leader of the Lib Dems, a potentially more significant post in current circumstances. The post became vacant after the resignation of Vince 'Mr Grumpy' Cable who is focusing on his role as Business Secretary.

Hughes has already asked an awkward question of 'The Governent' in the Commons and could become the focus of discontent among Liberal activists, particularly as Conservative backbenchers and the right-wing press are trying to water down an increase in capital gains tax.

Lib Dem starlet Jo Swinson disappointed her many fans when she tweeted: 'surprised & touched by lovely tweets & emails encouraging me to run for Lib Dem deputy leader - however I will not be standing'.

For many years the post was held by veteran MP and former political scientist Alan Beith. Beith played a pivotal role in coalition discussions in the Lib Dem parliamentary party when he drew on his frustrating experience with the Lib-Lab pact to suggest that a full coalition was the only viable option.

Trouble on the backbenches?

Jo Swinson

While relations between ministers in the Coalition Government are generally going well (leaving aside some grumpiness on the part of Vince Cable who refused to do a foxtrot with Theresa May), it's a different story on the backbenches. Conservative backbenchers are disgruntled because some of them didn't get the jobs they hoped for and they also think that the Lib Dems have punched above their weight in terms of policy (which they probably have). David Cameron had to back down on his plan to neuter the 1922 Committee (itself the product of the collapse of a Con-Lib coalition) by allowing ministers to vote for the chairman.

However, there is also some disquiet among Liberal Democrats. Some of this again comes from people who have been passed over in the formation of the Government. But there are also policy concerns, particularly from those MPs who won their seats from Labour.

One of these is the feisty MP for East Dunbartonshire, Jo Swinson. Swinson is very intelligent and articulate, having achieved a first in Management from LSE (no mean feat), followed by a career in the media. In her late twenties, she is also very photogenic.

For a while Swinson was awarded the rather sexist accolade of 'Babe of the House'. But last year a younger Conservative woman won a by-election in Norwich and she has now gone straight into the government as an assistant whip. Some reports suggest that Swinson is far from happy which may explain the delay in her swearing/affirming to take her seat. She eventually did so yesterday, standing on tiptoe in the Lords to see the Queen and admiring all the 'bling'.

We may yet hear from Ms Swinson and not just about the concerns of her East Dunbartonshire constituents whom she cultivates very assiduously or the closure of Westminster Bridge for the state opening of which she tweeted a picture yesterday.

Axeman uses the A-word

Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury David Laws is a former banker and as dry as they come in economic terms. He is in effect the Govermment's axeman and he makes it clear in the Financial Times this morning that he won't be afraid to use his axe, using the austerity word that was taboo in the election. He also made it clear that he will be sensitive in seeking to protect vital services.

The problem is that the Coalition Government doesn't have a lot of room for manoeuvre. They have said that NHS spending will increase in real times: in practice this means cutbacks given an ageing population and advances in medical technology. They are seeking to protect spending on schools.

Various perks for pensioners such as the winter fuel allowance and free bus passes will be retained, even though the recipients are often still in work or well off. What's more pensions in future will go up in terms of either inflation or earnings, whichever is greater, or by 2.5 per cent as a minimum. Transfer payments like this cost huge amounts of money and increasing the retirement age to reflect the fact that people live longer has been postponed well into the future.

So other aspects of public services will have to take a big hit. There will have to be a bonfire of quangos and some of the monitoring ones set up by New Labour will be no great loss. Others deliver important regulatory or scientific services, e.g., FERA which I visited on Thursday.

Higher education is likely to take a big hit, but the Lib Dems are reluctant to allow universities to raise the fees they charge to home students.

Some people I encounter don't seem to be facing up to the new reality. They are burying their heads in the sand or recognising that they will have to be made pure, but not just yet. Well, cuts are going to start impacting services near you before long. That's when we can expect political trouble. The structural budget deficit has to be reduced but it's difficult given the number of sacred cows there are.