What will David do?

David Miliband has to decide within the next 24 hours to carry on in front-line politics, if he has not decided already. His acclaimed speech to the Labour Party conference yesterday could be his last from the front bench.

One can understand why he might not wish to continue. He has been pipped to the leadership of the party by his own brother. Even if Labour regain office, he would never be prime minister.

Moreover, if he did carry on as a front bench spokesman, the media would constantly be looking to expose differences between him and Red Ed - and they do exist.

On the other hand, if he does stand down, Ed Balls is likely to be the Shadow Chancellor. Balls is a leading deficit denier. Or to put it more generously, he believes that a lot of the gap can be closed by clamping down on tax evasion and avoidance. If it was that easy, it would have been done years ago.

Dave or David, Nick or Nicholas?

Given names often cause problems. I happen to have a Welsh one which gives people a lot of problems. I shortened it from 'Wynford' years ago. (There used to be a Welsh televison broadcaster called Wynford Vaughan Thomas who was a kind of sidekick to David Dimbleby on state occasions: I am not named after him!)

It is becoming increasingly common to call politicians by their first names as celebrity culture takes hold. It all started with the last London mayoral election when it was 'Ken' or 'Boris' or sometimes the affectionate 'Bozza'.

In private before the election David Cameron used to say 'Call me Dave!' But now he is prime minister, we must refer to him as David. But why is it Nick rather than Nicholas? I was talking with a colleague yesterday who specialises in culture and the media and she suggested that 'Nicholas' was a child's name.

Obviously it's 'Ken' Clarke as he is so blokeish. William Hague tried to be blokeish as opposition leader, but never shortened his name to 'Bill'. Just as well now that he is Foreign Secretary. George Osborne changed his first name from Gideon which was a smart move. I suppose one could shorten 'Theresa' to 'Tessa', but 'Theresa' sounds better for a Home Secretary. Incidentally, I have met her and I think that she is both very pleasant and very sharp. Choosing distinctive shoes is a smart branding device.

On the Labour benches, it's 'Ed' rather than 'Edward' Miliband. But David Miliband is not 'Dave'. I think he should become 'Dave' now to enhance his populist appeal. I knew their father slightly and I have to say that he is one of the few people I really disliked and not just because he was a Marxist. I actually find Ed a lot smarter and more likeable than Dave and it appears they are going to stand against each other for the leadership. Whether Yvette Cooper will stand against her husband remains to be seen, but she is smarter and more likeable.

Gordon Brown steps down

In a day of fast-moving developments, Gordon Brown has announced that he is stepping down as Labour leader and hopes that a new leader can be in place by the party conference in September: Brown

The announcement removes one major impediment to a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition, but it may also encourage the Conservatives to try and seal the deal with the Liberal Democrats. Any 'rainbow' or 'traffic light' coalition would have a very thin majority. The case for a further election in the autumn would be strengthened by the fact that there would be another 'unelected' prime minister - although the British system is not a presidential one but seeks to elect a party to govern.

We can now expect manoeuvring to begin among potential candidates. David Miliband is the obvious Blairite candidate, but some think more highly of his brother Ed. Harriet Harman may be tempted to stand, but will Alan Johnson put his hat in the ring?

So we shall have a lot of political manoeuvring which will do nothing to tackle the problems facing the economy.

Brown soup

This is a fast moving situation and any comments can quickly be overtaken by events. Much depends on how bad the results of the elections, and the first indications is that they are bad - as expected - for Labour. It also looks as if minor parties, but especially UKIP, have done well in the European elections.

Will Gordon Brown be the first ever Labour prime minister to be forced out while in office (Blair weakened his position by announcing that he was going sooner or later anyway)? Here are a few observations:

1. Although there is no conspiracy, the actions of James Purnell and others do look a bit like Blairites getting revenge for what happened to the Great Leader.
2. The backbench revolt route was never going to work because it is too convoluted a procedure.
3. Hence, as with Margaret Thatcher, the real blow would have to come from a number of Cabinet ministers. David Miliband is remaining omniously silent. Much will depend on whether Brown has the authority to carry out an effective reshuffle, now said to be occurring today.
4. Having waited so long to get the job, Brown will not go willingly or quietly.
5. Labour should be careful what they wish for. A new prime minister would be under a strong obligation to hold an early general election which Labour would lose. It is difficult to see any scenario under which Labour could win an election because after twelve years in office this is an exhausted party that has run out of ideas. Alternation of parties in government is a key element of democracy.

Incidentally, I don't favour an early election because in the current ferbile atmosphere we wouldn't get a serious discussion of policy options, not least in relation to the economy which remains far more important than MPs' expenses.