How constituencies change over time

I had the following letter published in the Financial Times the other day: 'One of the aspects of the recent election that has not been discussed much is the changing demography in some constituencies. Jim Pickard (“Thornberry fires starting gun in race for Labour leadership”, December 19) refers to the transformation of Nuneaton from a marginal seat to one with large Conservative majorities.'

In recent years large numbers of new houses have been built in Nuneaton, relatively reasonably priced by Warwickshire standards. Given the existence of “good” train services, the town has attracted commuters to Birmingham, and even to London, so there has been quite a big change in the make-up of the town, which in turn affects voting patterns.'

One Nuneaton resident emailed me to say: 'I remember the same happening when Shirley Williams lost her Hertford and Stevenage seat in 1979. The electrification of the Hertford line changed things beyond recognition as new folks moved in.' The other thing happening in Nuneaton is that there are lots of new jobs but, of course, in logistics and the “traditional” industries (coal, quarrying, textiles) are long gone.'

Another example would be my own constituency of Warwick and Leamington which has shifted from safe Conservative to marginal Labour hold in 2019.

I don't know Blythe Valley or Bishop Auckland, but I did hear comment that there had been an inward migration of commuters to buy relatively affordable housing.

The 'Workington Man' stereotype attracted some criticism because it was seen as a media shortcut which conceals as much as it reveals. Nevertheless, there was a particular group of voters in northern England who shifted to the Conservatives: Realignment

It is very likely that constituencies will be redistricted before the next election, although it is not clear whether the number of MPs will be reduced from 650 to 600 as David Cameron originally proposed. One calculation is that the new boundaries would have given the Conservatives a majority of just over 100.

Here comes Workington man

We all remember the fictitious median voter, Worcester Woman, that David Cameron was supposed to target. Actually, I think it started as a joke by election guru Robert Worcester, but the media honed in on this thirty something woman in Worcester with children and working part-time.

Well now it is the era of 'Workington man', at least according to a Tory think tank: Boris Johnson must target Workington man

He lives in a Rugby League town in the north of England and is a traditional Labour voter who backs leave. Apparently, he 'favours security over freedom across both social and economic axes, but leans much more towards security on social issues'. He distrusts globalisation and neo-liberal Thatcherism does not appeal to him. It has to be said that the historic Conservative record in these towns is poor, but old loyalties are disappearing.

Vox pops always interest me in elections. They are completely unscientific, but they are one way of trying to understand what voters are thinking. Vox pops on the television channels last night suggested that many voters think that Boris Johnson is someone who 'gets things done' and 'has bottle'.

All the poll evidence so far suggests that Boris Johnson has not suffered from failing to die in a ditch. Leave voters think that he tried his best and two-and-a-half times as many blame Jeremy Corbyn as they do the prime minister.

What Labour has to try to do is to switch the narrative away from Brexit to other austerity related issues where they might hope to be stronger, although the Conservatives will pledge extra spending. The problem is that voters take a very poor view of Jeremy Corbyn. Some women voters are not impressed by Boris Johnson and they may be open to appeals based on social justice issues.

I think that the Lib Dems are taking a bit of a risk with a very hard Remain line. Many people would think that revoking Article 50 on day one of a Liberal Democrat government without any further consultation is a bit strong. Of course, there won't be such a government, but that is their core message.

There has been a lot of emphasis on how much damage the Brexit Party could do the Conservatives, but they could attract more Labour voters in Leave seats that the Conservatives hope to win in the north and Midlands.