How constituencies change over time

I had the following letter published in the Financial Times the other day: 'One of the aspects of the recent election that has not been discussed much is the changing demography in some constituencies. Jim Pickard (“Thornberry fires starting gun in race for Labour leadership”, December 19) refers to the transformation of Nuneaton from a marginal seat to one with large Conservative majorities.'

In recent years large numbers of new houses have been built in Nuneaton, relatively reasonably priced by Warwickshire standards. Given the existence of “good” train services, the town has attracted commuters to Birmingham, and even to London, so there has been quite a big change in the make-up of the town, which in turn affects voting patterns.'

One Nuneaton resident emailed me to say: 'I remember the same happening when Shirley Williams lost her Hertford and Stevenage seat in 1979. The electrification of the Hertford line changed things beyond recognition as new folks moved in.' The other thing happening in Nuneaton is that there are lots of new jobs but, of course, in logistics and the “traditional” industries (coal, quarrying, textiles) are long gone.'

Another example would be my own constituency of Warwick and Leamington which has shifted from safe Conservative to marginal Labour hold in 2019.

I don't know Blythe Valley or Bishop Auckland, but I did hear comment that there had been an inward migration of commuters to buy relatively affordable housing.

The 'Workington Man' stereotype attracted some criticism because it was seen as a media shortcut which conceals as much as it reveals. Nevertheless, there was a particular group of voters in northern England who shifted to the Conservatives: Realignment

It is very likely that constituencies will be redistricted before the next election, although it is not clear whether the number of MPs will be reduced from 650 to 600 as David Cameron originally proposed. One calculation is that the new boundaries would have given the Conservatives a majority of just over 100.