How should one choose a prime minister?

This blog post from Tim Bale looks at the selectorate of Conservative Party activists that will choose the next prime minister. Unsurprisingly, they are neither demographically or ideologically representative of the population as a whole. Party activists have been called a zealocracy: Party members who will elect prime minister

This has attracted plenty of objections, but how one would do it differently? One argument is that it should be left to MPs who at least know the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates. But does this give too much power to a much criticised political class?

Some would argue that the selection of a new prime minister should lead to a general election. But that is to treat the UK as a presidential system which it isn't. Some would say it is in effect. However, following such a rule would undermine cabinet government even further.

Of course, there may well be a general election within the next year anyway, either from a position of strength or weakness for the new prime minister.

A crisis for both parties

A very interesting blog post by Deborah Mabbett on the threats facing the existing party system, suggesting that the large two party share of the vote in 2015 was an aberrant result, rather than an indication of a reversion to two party politics: A crisis for both parties

An interesting comment is made about how both parties have an interest in maintaining a two party duopoly, although whether they can achieve that is another question. It reminds me of the first research I did in the late 1960s on the insurgent Scottish National Party in the two new towns of Cumbernauld and East Kilbride.

What was evident was that both the traditional parties felt threatened and were prepared to cooperate to defend the conventional political spectrum.

How does Theresa May compare with other prime ministers?

My attempt to compare Theresa May with other less successful prime ministers over the last hundred years: Disastrous prime ministers

Brexit damage to social fabric

I was quite surprised when someone questioned on Facebook the fact that I have Brexiteer friends. I couldn't be friends with someone who is a neo-Fascist, racist, homophobic or a misogynist, but in general I wouldn't let politics stand in the way of friendship. One can agree to disagree on such matters, just as one can on religion. I am even friendly with someone who supports Crystal Palace!

I respect that people legitimately hold different views from mine. If we lose that from our society and politics, we are losing something essential to the maintenance of the social fabric and a democratic political system.

In some ways I find the views of hard core remainers more challenging than those of leavers. Some (not all) of them border on the arrogant in the certainty that they are right. Their case often claims to be more evidence based, while for many leavers it is more emotional which is one way of making a political judgment.

Having studied the EU for over forty years, and seen it from the inside as a leader of a EU research project and a UK representative on an EU committee, my problem with its decision-making is not that is a bureaucratic dictatorship, as some claim, but that decision-making is too cumbersome, slow and complex. Perhaps that is unavoidable when one is dealing with 27 member states and three major institutions, not to mention many minor ones. There is still a technocratic flavour to the whole project, despite the often underrated influence of the European Parliament in the trilogue.

Given the time that it has taken to make some reforms to the Common Agricultural Policy which still absorbs far too much of the budget and is dysfunctional from an environmental point of view, I am rather sceptical of 'reform from within' narratives. Big business has far too much influence on outcomes. However, I do think that a more fragmented Europe would be less successful at counter balancing Russia and exerting influence in the world generally.

The deteriorating fabric of UK politics

With the 13th candidate announcing for the Conservative Party leadership, we now have a baker's dozen wanting the poisoned chalice and eager to join the growing list of Tory leaders brought down by the European question. It's even possible that some candidates will only get their own vote as their nominators may not vote for them. One would think that credible candidates should be required to produce more than two signatures.

Of course, it's a bit like candidates who say they are running for US president but really hope they might be selected as a candidate foe vice-president. Some of them are hoping to get Cabinet posts in returning for pledging their supporters at a later stage (who won't necessarily vote as recommended anyway).

While this comic opera continues, a solution to Brexit is as far away as ever. Indeed, it may no longer be possible to compromise on a soft Brexit that wins grudging acceptance from both sides of the argument. The hard core remainers continue to call for a second referendum, although I don't see this as a viable option if it ever was, while Brexiteers want a no deal exit regardless of the resultant damage which they would see as scaremongering or at worst short term. The EU will not budge on the negotiated settlement, although there is room for manoeuvre on the political declaration.

One possible scenario is a no confidence vote in a new Conservative PM followed by a general election which would probably produce another hung Parliament. One shouldn't get carried away by current poll results as a general election is at least a few months away and getting a quarter of the vote doesn't necessarily get you very far under a first past the post system as other insurgent parties have found in the past.

The threat of a successful bid for Scottish independence has increased. If disentangling a relationship that has lasted for short of 50 years has proved difficult, dismantling one that has lasted over 300 years will be even more challenging, particularly if an independent Scotland was admitted to the EU.

The polarisation in British politics and society may now be hard to overcome and that is not a very happy situation, to say the least. Of course, it's not just about Brexit, but a wider clash between different value systems involving, for example, 'nowheres' and 'somewheres', or between those who are social conservatives/economic interventionists and the more liberally inclined.

If I was younger, I would be thinking about leaving with possible destinations being the western seaboard of the United States (where I have lived and worked), British Columbia (where I nearly went) or Western Australia. As it is, I am stuck with the likelihood of a British version of American culture wars.

Michael Gove's strengths

I don't like Michael Gove. I think he looks ridiculous when he comes back to his house jogging with a bagel. I didn't like his remark about experts. The thought of his wife, Sarah 'Vain' as Private Eye calls her, as political first lady appals me.

Nevertheless, I think that he is a lot smarter than almost all of the other candidates for leader of the Conservative Party. You might say that is a low bar, but I think he has good political antennae.

I have carefully monitored Defra ministers over the years. It is actually a rather difficult department to run given its diverse roles and the challenges it faces. Very few secretaries of state have been successful. They have moved on quickly or seen their political careers come to an end. The one exception that comes to mind is Hilary Benn.

What impresses me about Gove is that he has imposed his own agenda on the department. Some of his actions have been simply crowd pleasers. But there has been a serious attempt to give a greener tinge to farming policy and deal with biodiversity issues.

I think he could actually find a way through the Brexit dilemma which most people, even if it didn't please them, would grudgingly accept. That would a big win.

A legacy of unfulfilled ambitions

A balanced piece of writing on Theresa May by Bronwen Maddox: Theresa May resigns legacy unfulfilled

I only met her once when she was a rising star and I was instrumental in her being given a Parliamentarian of the Year Award. We had a long chat. Contrary to contemporary reports, I found her to be relaxed and very easy to talk to. Perhaps the burdens of office changed her.

Downing Street produced a bunker mentality in Gordon Brown, so perhaps that also happened with Mrs May. Dave Cameron, of course, was the epitome of being chillaxed.