Is an anti-woke visa for me?

Rumours of a pre-election merger between the Conservatives and Reform have been denied, but it's effectively what happened in Canada.    Having one party on the right to defend privilege has a certain logic.   However, at the moment all that is happening is that every second rate Tory rat is deserting a sinking ship as Kemi Kaze does her best to re-establish the Tories as the 'nasty' party.

So I had better resume my search for a bolt hole.  With the cooperation of a former Tory candidate, Russia is offering three year 'anti-woke' visas.  I have never really understood what 'woke' means, but as I nap  a lot I probably don't qualify.  Anyway I don't share my gardener's view that Putin is a colossus of the 21st century as he stands up to the Ukranian Nazis.   To me he looks like a man searching for some justification to attack the Baltic States.

I wondered if I ought to start in the British Isles.   I have had a couple of excellent holidays in Jersey in the past few years (superb fish suppers), but the population density and traffic would get me down.  Anyway, I am not rich enough to qualify.

Guernsey is said to be more 'understated', i.e., down market.   When I was briefly approving graduate courses for our new medical school, I was astonished to be told that all the staff on a new MSc in Cosmetic Dentistry lived there.   I started to probe gently as to how they would get to classes and they told me that some of them had qualified as pilots and they had their own fleet of small planes called DentAir.

Alderney intrigues me. but I have never been there and jt is far too remote.   Perhaps I should look at the Isle of Man which has some great scenery and is a less expensive place to live.

Why I won't be escaping to Switzerland

I was intrigued to read in The Times property section on Friday that a lady featured there was thinking of going to live in Switzerland to escape the clutches of a right-wing government.  Actually Reform's poll ratings seem to have fallen a bit after the revelations of Russian bribes and allegations about the banter that Nigel Farage used at Dulwich College.

I am actually one of the few people who has studied Swiss politics as part of their degree, although we mainly looked at the constitutional structure and decision-making processes rather than the underlying politics.   I did subsequently work with a Swiss political scientist who assured me that it was an essentially elitist country with the conscript army giving it a democratic facade.   The army is now much reduced in size.

Somehow I was not surprised to learn that a delegation of top Swiss companies such as Rolex had gone to see President Trump about the high tariffs he had imposed on their country.   They presented him with a gold bar engraved with his name and a Rolex clock.   This seems to have been helpful.

I am rather old fashioned and back in the day we called this bribery.   However, although there has been some critical comment in Switzerland, the consensus appears to be that it represents 'realistic economic diplomacy'.

It's all a bit remiscent of the Nixon 'Meltgate' scandal which became subsumed in Watergate.   AI tells me that the Nixon administration was accused of raising federal milk price supports in exchange for substantial campaign contributions from the dairy industry to Nixon's re-election campaign, The dairy industry reportedly contributed more than $200,000 in secret to the campaign.

My recollection is that the dairy lobbyists actually turned up in the Oval Office with a case full of used notes and Nixon said something on the lines of 'many come into this office and ask for things but not many show their appreciation.'   Nixon aides were then dispatched to collect the money from around the country at small airports.

To return to Switzerland, it looks like a company state to me where big international companies call the shots rather than the divided federal government.

It turns out that the attraction of Switzerland to the lady in The Times was that her father was Swiss and she holds a Swiss passport.   Meanwhile it is not on my bolt hole list.

The 1970s show: ungovernability is back

I am no fan of Rod Liddle, a right-wing head banger and Millwall supporter.   But he make a good point in his latest Spectator article.   Keir Starmer has the worst ratings of any prime minister in modern history, but Liddle points out that each successive prime minister in recent times has had worse ratings than his or her predecessor.

This leads Liddle to the question, is Britain ungovernable?   Of course, there is a risk of reinventing he wheel: there was such a debate on ungovernability in the 1970s featuring the late Tony King and Sam Brittan.   The general conclusion was one of government overload: government tried to do too much and ended up doing little of it well.

However, government today probably faces an electorate than has more expectations and sense of entitlement than in the 1970s.   One can see why many voters are disillusioned: taxes are up, but public services are seen as deteriorating.   Young people cannot get on the housing ladder in a way that was still possible in the 1970s (inflation paradoxically helped by reducing the real value of loans).

An analysis carried out for Hope not Hate shows that Reform voters are a rather variegated and in some ways contradictory group.   What I suspect does unite them is a 'none of the above' feeling: all other parties have failed, so Reform couldn't be worse.

This week Reform has to appear at the CBI conference to explain and justify its economic policies.   There has been some rowing back from the rasher promises, but will the attempt to appear responsible undermine their raw populist appeal?

Given that they are billed as the government as waiting, it is surprising that they are not winning more local government by-elections.   It is the Lib Dems and Greens who seem to be doing well with even the Conservatives winning the odd seat.  In line with the polls the Labour vote has tanked.

What is driving Reform voters?

For the avoidance of doubt Keir Starmer did not say that Reform's voters or leaders were racist, merely that some of its policies are.

Probably most Reform voters or prospective voters are driven by frustration over the cost of living (especially for basics such as food or energy which hit the poorest harder) or the deterioration in public services.   The mainstream parties are perceived as being unable to tackle these issues.

A small minority are racist, attracted from other movements, and rather more could be described as xenophobic in the sense that they dislike or are prejudiced against those from other countries.   Again some of them might argue that they are simply against uncontrolled migration, especially when it is illegal.

What does concern me is that there appears to be a growth in intolerance of difference and that more people think it is ok to use racist, sexist or homophobic language.

For example, here in Warwickshire the Reform controlled county council has secured its policy to ban the flying of pride flags from County Hall (with the support of the Conservatives).    One might say that that is merely symbolic, except that nothing in politics is merely symbolic, especially when it comes to the display of flags.

The LGBTQ movement in Warwickshire has stated that not only was their Pride festival vandalised (admittedly not for the first time), but there has been an increase in homophobic conduct.   It's not so long ago that male homosexuality was a crime.  Sexual identity is a personal matter.  As Trudeau Snr. said, the state has no place in the bedrooms of the nation.

Andy Burnham's self promotion as a prime ministerial candidate simply gives fuel to the right-wing media and its running dogs such as Chris Mason and allows Labour to be portrayed as a divided party.  Yes, he has been a good mayor of Manchester, but Boris Johnson seemed to be quite a good Mayor of London or at least performed the role well (most of his better ideas came from his deputy and his aides). The King of the North should stay in his realm.

Labour, meanwhile, needs to improve on the 'vision thing', but above all delivery.

Relocate to the Grand Duchy?

My attention was attracted by an advert in the FT this morning urging readers to move to the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, noting that free public transport was on offer.   Having looked at the site, however, it is clear that the people they want are young finance professionals: https://movetolux.luxembourgforfinance.com/ 

After the Brexit referendum, I did briefly consider moving to the Grand Duchy.  Not so long before I had organised a conference there with the University of Luxembourg which has developed a growing international reputation.

The conference went very well and I was told that there had been discreet help behind the scenes by the Grand Duke and Duchess who were very proud of the fact that they were the only constitutional monarchs in Europe with degrees in political science.   Some might regard that as a drawback, but I have it on good authority that the late Queen thought she would have been better prepared for her role if she had received a university education.

The Brexit referendum result showed me that my views were out of kilter with at least half the population.  However, on reflection, I felt that I should not be driven out of my own country.  Paradoxically, two of the leading supporters of Brexit on the Spectator now live in Portugal and the west coast of Ireland.

The BBC insists that it has to give a platform to Reform because if there was an election tomorrow, they would most likely form the government.  Leaving aside the fact that even Nigel Farage thinks that 2027 is the most likely election date, shouldn't they can be subjecting their programme to rigorous scrutiny rather than fawning over every utterance?

Why should I as an ageing, heterosexual, white male fear a Reform government?   I am hardly likely to be their first target and if I was walking down the street, they might think I was Gammon.   However, I don't think that mass deportations or (now) getting rid of those with permission to remain (many married to Brits) can be achieved without civil unrest.

So I will continue my search for a bolt hole.  The obvious answer might be seem to Spain where my daughter and husband, granddaughter and great-granddaughter live.   However, it would be unfair to disrupt their lives by turning up in my dotage.  More practically, I don't like hot climates, so the search continues.

Are Reform voters storming to the polls?

I have been looking at recent local by-election results to see what they say about voter intentions, but I have to admit the picture is a rather confused one: first, because of the vagaries of the first past the post system; second, because of local factors; and, third, because turnout is often low.

On the first point, the Liberal Democrats gained a seat from the Conservatives in Bournemouth with 32.4 per cent of the vote.  Reform came second on 28 per cent and I suspect they took votes from the Conservatives on 27.4 per cent.

On the second point, the New Ham Independents took a seat from Labour, although I am far from clear what they stand for.  One of the best results for Reform was in Trowbridge, which I at first thought was in Wiltshire, but is actually in Wales.   Labour are taking a beating in the polls there, although the Plaid are neck and neck with Reform in the opinion polls.

On the third point, one has to assume that Reform voters would be more motivated to turn out in a general election.

Here in the Royal Spa, Labour won the Clarendon ward yesterday, having lost there to the Lib Dems in the county council elections.   The margin was again very tight between Labour and the Lib Dems with Reform polling around 15 per cent.  In nearby Kenilworth the Greens held on to a seat with 40 per cent of the vote, Reform receiving 18 per cent. This means that the Green-Labour coalition remains in place on Warwick District Council.

Once again we have to remind ourselves that a general election is not imminent and Labour MP are unlikely to vote out their own government so that they can place their seats at risk so that Nigel Farage can be prime minister.

I think it is more likely than not that the Conservatives will have a new leader by next summer.   Replacing a Labour leader is more difficult even given the strength of the northern wind.

The BBC is now taking the line that it is platforming Reform because they are running at around 28-30 per cent in the opinion polls.  I don't recall that rule applying when the Conservatives were in office.   In any case as the Lib Dems have been at around 14/15 per cent on that basis they should get half as much coverage as Reform instead of being almost invisible.

If Reform's policies and personalities were challenged more by the BBC, ITV and Sky it is possible that voters might start to have doubts about their fitness to govern.   However, quite of the lot of the Reform vote is arguably a 'none of the above' vote.  The Tories failed after 14 years, Labour failed after 14 months (!) so why not try something different?

Having said all that, I can still visualise the nightmare of King William V having to welcome Farage as prime minister and I am continuing to consider contingency plans for leaving the country.

How is South Borsetshire's Labour MP coping?

It has been a puzzle to me why Labour MPs should bring down their own government.  Changing leader is another matter, although defenestration is far more common in the Conservative Party.

I have decided to use a fictitious composite 2024 intake Labour MP as a benchmark.   Here is the first instalment.

Guy Bland didn’t really expect to become a Labour MP or at least that was not his career strategy.  As the public affairs ‘guy’ for a medium-sized charity he thought that doing well in an unwinnable constituency would give him brownie points with an incoming Labour Government.   He might then be hired by a bigger charity or even a lobbying firm.  He and his wife, Emma Bland, who worked in religious affairs for the BBC, could then afford to start a family in London.

South Borsetshire constituency included the cathedral city of Felpersham, the market town and county town of Borchester and a number of villages such as Ambridge.   The sitting MP, Hazel Woolley, a hotelier by trade, had a majority of over 12,000.   However, her hard line Brexiteer and generally right wing stance was not particularly popular locally.   Her comment that farmers should get out from under the comfort blanket of EU subsidy payments did not go down too well..

Her main challenger appeared to be the Liberal Democrat leader on the county council, Mark Grundy.   A keen sportsman in his day he had played for both Felpersham City football team and the Borsetshire minor counties cricket team.  His slogan was ‘Mark My Words: Borsetshire born and bred.’

The Green candidate, Marjorie Antrobus, ran a local animal rescue centre that looked after all sorts of animals, but was out of favour with local cat ladies who accused her of being ‘Doggist’.   (I have heard such a charge in real life at a cats event).

Guy visited the constituency most weekends, although the predominant ly left wing constituency party gave him little encouragement, seeing him as a New Labour re-tread.    His wife was a communicant Anglican so each Sunday he accompanied her to one of the local churches.

The campaign had just started when he became aware that he might have a chance of doing better than coming a good second or third.   He had emerged from a church in Borchester after morning service when two elderly ladies strode towards him.   He feared he was about to be upbraided, but instead one of them said: ‘My sister and I have never voted Labour in our lives, but we are sick to death of this Government and we can see that you and your wife are decent Christian people.’

He had made no plans to buy a local base or establish a constituency office, but the result confirmed his concerns:

Bland, Guy Joshua (Labour and Co-op)                     19,327

Grundy, Mark (Liberal Democrat)                              15,484

Woolley, Hazel (Conservative)                                    11,225

Antrobus, Marjorie   (Green)                                         2.026

Nelson, Horatio (True Patriot)                                          517

How have things worked out for Guy?

After the count, Emma said to him ‘You will never get re-elected, however hard you work.’   Nevertheless, Guy was able to rent a spare flat from the cathedral and set up a constituency office.  He and Emma had a child.  

His first challenge was the Labour plans on inheritance tax for farmers.   He decided the best way to proceed was to work with other rural Labour MPs to get implementation delayed and modified.  Eventually the NFU realised that this was likely to have more effect than parading shiny tractors and combines in London.   Making concessions would be seen as another sign of Government weakness and the Treasury was firmly behind the proposals, but the arrival of yet another Defra secretary of state offered a glimmer of hope.

His next challenge was to find some way of defending Keir Starmer against charges of poor judgment.  He decided to keep a low profile, focusing on the summer fetes circuit.   However, his local party was firmly behind the Andy Burnham stalking horse candidate for deputy leader and this offered a new source of tension with local activists.