Letters to a great-granddaughter (7)

In May my great-granddaughter came from Spain to England for my wedding.  The concept of a great-grandfather was difficult for her to grasp, but she was soon calling me 'grandad'.

In this post I have tried to summarise the various forces that threaten her future.   At my stage of life it is very easy to take a 'glass half empty' stance and I should emphasise that there are many positive opportunities ahead, not least in her adopted home.

I have not discussed the challenges in any particular order, but it is clearly that AI is one of the most potentially transformative.  The analogue world I knew has largely disappeared and the digital world is here.   

There has been a certain amount of negative hyperbole about AI with visions of humanoid robots more intelligent than us roaming the Earth.  Scare stories about a decline in entry level jobs due to AI were effectively knocked on the head by David Smith writing in The Times.   However, we may be nearer the 15 hour week envisaged a century or so ago by J M Keynes and that is going to require some disruptive changes in the economy and society.   There will also be many benefits in areas such as health care.

The strength of organised crime relative to the state is an area of concern.   In Haiti the gangs seem to be taking control; in Mexico it is a continuing battle; and it is a growing problem in France.   If your phone is stolen in London it is likely to enter a chain that will see it rapidly exported  by criminals, the same goes for high performance cars. In Spain corruption appears to be widespread.  The role of organised crime in illegal migration is there for all to see.   The state is increasingly seen as unable to protect its own citizens.

I have great respect for William Hague (I greatly enjoyed being shown round his beautiful garden in Wales by him while his wife took me round their superb library).  He recently stated that nuclear proliferation was the greatest threat we face.

How near Iran was to developing a useable nuclear device and how far any efforts in that direction have been disrupted is way above my pay grade.   However, if Iran got nuclear weapons (leaving aside the reaction of Israel) Saudi Arabia and Turkey and probably the Gulf States would want them as well.  As tensions between Tirrkey and Israel increase, Turkey may decide that it needs that capability anyway.

All the scientific evidence on climate change is tossed aside by know nothings and as a consequence we are not taking the measures we need to take quickly enough.   As a result we may have to focus on adaptation, butt that is going to be expensive.

Unfortunately, our political responses to these challenges are becoming less sophisticated.   One can understand the despair of young people struggling with the cost of living and seeing public services deteriorate.   Belief in the big money tree seems to persist and nostrums like a wealth tax are advanced despite the fact that they have not worked wherever they have been tried.

Populism on the right and to an extent on the left (the proposed Fruit and Nut Party) is flourishing, although there have been one or two setbacks as in Australia and Canada.  Frustrated voters are attracted to 'none of the above' alternatives and simple solutions to complex problems.

I still believe in the need for evidence, expertise and effective policies.   In a society that is increasingly fragmented we need proportional representation, ideally STV, but constitutional tinkering will not be  enough.

But as Shakespeare said, our doubts are traitors.   We have to believe that better times are possible, however tough the road ahead.

Bigging up Mandy

The Times is bigging up Peter Mandelson's memoirs, no doubt hope to attract paid traffic to its new website. As a subscriber to the paper, I was offered 'exclusive' video access on Saturday. I didn't bother.

No doubt Mandy's memoirs will be essential reading for those interested in the toxic conflicts at the top of New Labour. The Brown-Blair struggle had a damaging effect on the conduct of public policy and the effectiveness of the Government. Mandy says that he has rushed his memoirs out in order to inform candidates in the titanic struggle for the Labour leadership, but some commentators think he has been motivated by getting his account ahead of the Reverend Blair who is none too pleased according to some accounts.

There is a sense in which the dysfunctional struggles at the top of New Labour are yesterday's story. We now have a new Government which appears to be functioning well, the odd slip by particular ministers aside. George Osborne's ratings have shot up and William Hague is getting deservedly favourable coverage for his pragmatic yet still strategic conduct of foreign policy.

Mandy has revealed that Nick Clegg wanted Gordon Brown to go as the price of any coalition with Labour and that Gordon, reasonably enough, thought he had been humiliated enough. But most people had worked that out for themselves.

No love affair with the beautiful game

It's claimed that England win the World Cup only when Labour are in office, but then there's only one example to back up that argument. However, there's no doubt that New Labour had a love affair with the beautiful game. After all, it was a way of blokes who had become middle class showing they could still connect with their working class roots.

Andy Burnham, now running for the Labour leadership, had an Everton ring tone on his mobile. Alastair Campbell, a long-suffering Burnley supporter, includes 68 references to football in the full version of his diaries as against 55 for the likely next Labour leader, the admittedly wonkish David Miliband. Tony Blair, who claimed to be a Newcastle United supporter, demonstrated his 'man of the people' street cred by doing headers with Kevin Keegan. Gordon Brown, a faithful follower of Raith Rovers of 'they're dancing in the streets of Raith' fame, is said to have limited his small talk to 'Did you see the match?'

It's all a bit different now. David Cameron claims to be an Aston Villa supporter (like Prince William), but it's unclear when he last went to a match. William Hague is into judo. Any awkward foreign customers had better watch out or they will be wrestled to the floor by the Yorkshire charm merchant! Nick Clegg likes to ski and probably judiciously avoids declaring an allegiance to either Sheffield team.

Of course, it was also top level civil servants who were into football. Cabinet Secretary Gus O'Donnell is a supporter of Manchester United: it is believed that his Irish father was as well. At Warwick University he played for the 1st XI and also for a six-a-team dominated by Chelsea supporters called the Blue Strollers.

Dave or David, Nick or Nicholas?

Given names often cause problems. I happen to have a Welsh one which gives people a lot of problems. I shortened it from 'Wynford' years ago. (There used to be a Welsh televison broadcaster called Wynford Vaughan Thomas who was a kind of sidekick to David Dimbleby on state occasions: I am not named after him!)

It is becoming increasingly common to call politicians by their first names as celebrity culture takes hold. It all started with the last London mayoral election when it was 'Ken' or 'Boris' or sometimes the affectionate 'Bozza'.

In private before the election David Cameron used to say 'Call me Dave!' But now he is prime minister, we must refer to him as David. But why is it Nick rather than Nicholas? I was talking with a colleague yesterday who specialises in culture and the media and she suggested that 'Nicholas' was a child's name.

Obviously it's 'Ken' Clarke as he is so blokeish. William Hague tried to be blokeish as opposition leader, but never shortened his name to 'Bill'. Just as well now that he is Foreign Secretary. George Osborne changed his first name from Gideon which was a smart move. I suppose one could shorten 'Theresa' to 'Tessa', but 'Theresa' sounds better for a Home Secretary. Incidentally, I have met her and I think that she is both very pleasant and very sharp. Choosing distinctive shoes is a smart branding device.

On the Labour benches, it's 'Ed' rather than 'Edward' Miliband. But David Miliband is not 'Dave'. I think he should become 'Dave' now to enhance his populist appeal. I knew their father slightly and I have to say that he is one of the few people I really disliked and not just because he was a Marxist. I actually find Ed a lot smarter and more likeable than Dave and it appears they are going to stand against each other for the leadership. Whether Yvette Cooper will stand against her husband remains to be seen, but she is smarter and more likeable.