Why not go north of the border?

The news that more people are now members of Reform rather than Labour reminded me that I should renew my search for a bolthole in the event of a Reform government. In an analyis of a by-election result in Darlington, Rob Ford from Manchester University pointed out that the 'progressive' vote had split four ways allowing Reform to win the seat. (This does seem to happen less often in the south of England where the Lib Dems often win). As The Economist had pointed out a number of scenarios are possible at the next election, although I suspect that if Reform were the largest party, the Conservative rump would allow them to take office.

One comment said that he would take his dog to the Scottish borders. So what about Scotland? I am of direct Scottish descent in the male line and a graduate of a Scottish university. I even found my clan tie the other day (NB: the Grants were Unionists).

However, I am no great fan of the Scot Nats. I have been following them since 1968 when I had my first article published on Welsh and Scottish Nationalism. I am not a great fan of nationalism in any shape or form. Although the SNP can claim to be 'progressive', they also lack competence, e.g., the fefrries fiasco, falling educational standards, the inability to tackle the admittedly formuidable drug problem in the central belt.

The inhabitants of the Northern Isles do not paticularly see themselves as Scottish. Indeed, the Orkney flag displayed at the top of the page is based on that of Norway. Norwegian is taught as a second language. Planes depart from Grimsetter to destinations like Stavanger and Bergen.

Hoy from Stromness

I know all this because I have made a number of visits to stay with an old friend who could not resist the lure of the isles and got his last job there. He has a splendid view from his home outside Kirkwall, but I prefer the huddled streets of Stromness with the great views of the mountains on Hoy.

As I like cool temperatures the climate would suit me. However, it is a long way even from Aberdeen and while the local hospital is well regarded any advanced medical treatment requires a flight to Aberdeen. It's not necessarily a cheap destination as the ísland economy is doing well. Moreover, I would still be in the UK.

We still need experts

In one of her recent diatribes, tin eared Liz Truss said that people were fed up with experts who were always wrong.  I wouldn't bother with her vapourings, except that her remark echoed that by Michael Gove that 'we've had enough of experts'.

If I took this at face value it would be quite alarming.   I am fortunate enough ti live in a very efficient and innovative NHS trust.  When I felt unwell recently I called the community emergency response service.  A nurse arrived in 20 minutes, checked me over and tried a minor procedure. 

When this didn't work she called her coordinator who told her to call an ambulance.   This arrived promptly with a very helpful paramedic on board.   On arrival at A and E I was immediately sent for a scan and a battery of blood tests.

Three different doctors examined me and then two returned and carried out a minor procedure.  I was then told that I was well enough to go home.  My only disappointment was that the fire brigade didn't take me home which was the service provided for my partner.

Throughout all this time, I was in the hands of experts.   They hadn't gone online and decided that they would be doctors, paramedics, ambulance drivers or nurses for a day.  They had gone through a long process of qualification and monitored experience.   They were experts and caring ones at that.

Now, I suppose the response to that could be 'aqueducts' as in the Monty Python Life of Brian in response to the question, 'What have the Romans ever done for us?'   Doctors (and vets) could be treated as an exception to the general rule.

The populist logic is that experts are part of a technocratic elite that exploit the mass of the population, e.g., scientists claim to believe in climate change because they can get money to study it.   Or they urge people to take vaccines because they profit from them, or at least big pharma does.

On reflection this distrust of experts has deep roots in British culture and history.  We were the first country to industrialise and in large part this was done by trial and error and training consisted of 'sittuig by Nelly.'

Countries like Germany decided to go down a systematic technical education route, hence in the First World War we had to get our supplies of khaki from Germany and after the war was over engaged in industrial espionage to discover the secrets of the German chemical industry, albeit we were helped by German emigres and the formation of ICI.

We need experts more than ever, but also politicians who are prepared to take uncomfortable decisions and that is too much to hope for.

Is an anti-woke visa for me?

Rumours of a pre-election merger between the Conservatives and Reform have been denied, but it's effectively what happened in Canada.    Having one party on the right to defend privilege has a certain logic.   However, at the moment all that is happening is that every second rate Tory rat is deserting a sinking ship as Kemi Kaze does her best to re-establish the Tories as the 'nasty' party.

So I had better resume my search for a bolt hole.  With the cooperation of a former Tory candidate, Russia is offering three year 'anti-woke' visas.  I have never really understood what 'woke' means, but as I nap  a lot I probably don't qualify.  Anyway I don't share my gardener's view that Putin is a colossus of the 21st century as he stands up to the Ukranian Nazis.   To me he looks like a man searching for some justification to attack the Baltic States.

I wondered if I ought to start in the British Isles.   I have had a couple of excellent holidays in Jersey in the past few years (superb fish suppers), but the population density and traffic would get me down.  Anyway, I am not rich enough to qualify.

Guernsey is said to be more 'understated', i.e., down market.   When I was briefly approving graduate courses for our new medical school, I was astonished to be told that all the staff on a new MSc in Cosmetic Dentistry lived there.   I started to probe gently as to how they would get to classes and they told me that some of them had qualified as pilots and they had their own fleet of small planes called DentAir.

Alderney intrigues me. but I have never been there and jt is far too remote.   Perhaps I should look at the Isle of Man which has some great scenery and is a less expensive place to live.

Why I won't be escaping to Switzerland

I was intrigued to read in The Times property section on Friday that a lady featured there was thinking of going to live in Switzerland to escape the clutches of a right-wing government.  Actually Reform's poll ratings seem to have fallen a bit after the revelations of Russian bribes and allegations about the banter that Nigel Farage used at Dulwich College.

I am actually one of the few people who has studied Swiss politics as part of their degree, although we mainly looked at the constitutional structure and decision-making processes rather than the underlying politics.   I did subsequently work with a Swiss political scientist who assured me that it was an essentially elitist country with the conscript army giving it a democratic facade.   The army is now much reduced in size.

Somehow I was not surprised to learn that a delegation of top Swiss companies such as Rolex had gone to see President Trump about the high tariffs he had imposed on their country.   They presented him with a gold bar engraved with his name and a Rolex clock.   This seems to have been helpful.

I am rather old fashioned and back in the day we called this bribery.   However, although there has been some critical comment in Switzerland, the consensus appears to be that it represents 'realistic economic diplomacy'.

It's all a bit remiscent of the Nixon 'Meltgate' scandal which became subsumed in Watergate.   AI tells me that the Nixon administration was accused of raising federal milk price supports in exchange for substantial campaign contributions from the dairy industry to Nixon's re-election campaign, The dairy industry reportedly contributed more than $200,000 in secret to the campaign.

My recollection is that the dairy lobbyists actually turned up in the Oval Office with a case full of used notes and Nixon said something on the lines of 'many come into this office and ask for things but not many show their appreciation.'   Nixon aides were then dispatched to collect the money from around the country at small airports.

To return to Switzerland, it looks like a company state to me where big international companies call the shots rather than the divided federal government.

It turns out that the attraction of Switzerland to the lady in The Times was that her father was Swiss and she holds a Swiss passport.   Meanwhile it is not on my bolt hole list.

The 1970s show: ungovernability is back

I am no fan of Rod Liddle, a right-wing head banger and Millwall supporter.   But he make a good point in his latest Spectator article.   Keir Starmer has the worst ratings of any prime minister in modern history, but Liddle points out that each successive prime minister in recent times has had worse ratings than his or her predecessor.

This leads Liddle to the question, is Britain ungovernable?   Of course, there is a risk of reinventing he wheel: there was such a debate on ungovernability in the 1970s featuring the late Tony King and Sam Brittan.   The general conclusion was one of government overload: government tried to do too much and ended up doing little of it well.

However, government today probably faces an electorate than has more expectations and sense of entitlement than in the 1970s.   One can see why many voters are disillusioned: taxes are up, but public services are seen as deteriorating.   Young people cannot get on the housing ladder in a way that was still possible in the 1970s (inflation paradoxically helped by reducing the real value of loans).

An analysis carried out for Hope not Hate shows that Reform voters are a rather variegated and in some ways contradictory group.   What I suspect does unite them is a 'none of the above' feeling: all other parties have failed, so Reform couldn't be worse.

This week Reform has to appear at the CBI conference to explain and justify its economic policies.   There has been some rowing back from the rasher promises, but will the attempt to appear responsible undermine their raw populist appeal?

Given that they are billed as the government as waiting, it is surprising that they are not winning more local government by-elections.   It is the Lib Dems and Greens who seem to be doing well with even the Conservatives winning the odd seat.  In line with the polls the Labour vote has tanked.

What is driving Reform voters?

For the avoidance of doubt Keir Starmer did not say that Reform's voters or leaders were racist, merely that some of its policies are.

Probably most Reform voters or prospective voters are driven by frustration over the cost of living (especially for basics such as food or energy which hit the poorest harder) or the deterioration in public services.   The mainstream parties are perceived as being unable to tackle these issues.

A small minority are racist, attracted from other movements, and rather more could be described as xenophobic in the sense that they dislike or are prejudiced against those from other countries.   Again some of them might argue that they are simply against uncontrolled migration, especially when it is illegal.

What does concern me is that there appears to be a growth in intolerance of difference and that more people think it is ok to use racist, sexist or homophobic language.

For example, here in Warwickshire the Reform controlled county council has secured its policy to ban the flying of pride flags from County Hall (with the support of the Conservatives).    One might say that that is merely symbolic, except that nothing in politics is merely symbolic, especially when it comes to the display of flags.

The LGBTQ movement in Warwickshire has stated that not only was their Pride festival vandalised (admittedly not for the first time), but there has been an increase in homophobic conduct.   It's not so long ago that male homosexuality was a crime.  Sexual identity is a personal matter.  As Trudeau Snr. said, the state has no place in the bedrooms of the nation.

Andy Burnham's self promotion as a prime ministerial candidate simply gives fuel to the right-wing media and its running dogs such as Chris Mason and allows Labour to be portrayed as a divided party.  Yes, he has been a good mayor of Manchester, but Boris Johnson seemed to be quite a good Mayor of London or at least performed the role well (most of his better ideas came from his deputy and his aides). The King of the North should stay in his realm.

Labour, meanwhile, needs to improve on the 'vision thing', but above all delivery.

Relocate to the Grand Duchy?

My attention was attracted by an advert in the FT this morning urging readers to move to the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, noting that free public transport was on offer.   Having looked at the site, however, it is clear that the people they want are young finance professionals: https://movetolux.luxembourgforfinance.com/ 

After the Brexit referendum, I did briefly consider moving to the Grand Duchy.  Not so long before I had organised a conference there with the University of Luxembourg which has developed a growing international reputation.

The conference went very well and I was told that there had been discreet help behind the scenes by the Grand Duke and Duchess who were very proud of the fact that they were the only constitutional monarchs in Europe with degrees in political science.   Some might regard that as a drawback, but I have it on good authority that the late Queen thought she would have been better prepared for her role if she had received a university education.

The Brexit referendum result showed me that my views were out of kilter with at least half the population.  However, on reflection, I felt that I should not be driven out of my own country.  Paradoxically, two of the leading supporters of Brexit on the Spectator now live in Portugal and the west coast of Ireland.

The BBC insists that it has to give a platform to Reform because if there was an election tomorrow, they would most likely form the government.  Leaving aside the fact that even Nigel Farage thinks that 2027 is the most likely election date, shouldn't they can be subjecting their programme to rigorous scrutiny rather than fawning over every utterance?

Why should I as an ageing, heterosexual, white male fear a Reform government?   I am hardly likely to be their first target and if I was walking down the street, they might think I was Gammon.   However, I don't think that mass deportations or (now) getting rid of those with permission to remain (many married to Brits) can be achieved without civil unrest.

So I will continue my search for a bolt hole.  The obvious answer might be seem to Spain where my daughter and husband, granddaughter and great-granddaughter live.   However, it would be unfair to disrupt their lives by turning up in my dotage.  More practically, I don't like hot climates, so the search continues.

Are Reform voters storming to the polls?

I have been looking at recent local by-election results to see what they say about voter intentions, but I have to admit the picture is a rather confused one: first, because of the vagaries of the first past the post system; second, because of local factors; and, third, because turnout is often low.

On the first point, the Liberal Democrats gained a seat from the Conservatives in Bournemouth with 32.4 per cent of the vote.  Reform came second on 28 per cent and I suspect they took votes from the Conservatives on 27.4 per cent.

On the second point, the New Ham Independents took a seat from Labour, although I am far from clear what they stand for.  One of the best results for Reform was in Trowbridge, which I at first thought was in Wiltshire, but is actually in Wales.   Labour are taking a beating in the polls there, although the Plaid are neck and neck with Reform in the opinion polls.

On the third point, one has to assume that Reform voters would be more motivated to turn out in a general election.

Here in the Royal Spa, Labour won the Clarendon ward yesterday, having lost there to the Lib Dems in the county council elections.   The margin was again very tight between Labour and the Lib Dems with Reform polling around 15 per cent.  In nearby Kenilworth the Greens held on to a seat with 40 per cent of the vote, Reform receiving 18 per cent. This means that the Green-Labour coalition remains in place on Warwick District Council.

Once again we have to remind ourselves that a general election is not imminent and Labour MP are unlikely to vote out their own government so that they can place their seats at risk so that Nigel Farage can be prime minister.

I think it is more likely than not that the Conservatives will have a new leader by next summer.   Replacing a Labour leader is more difficult even given the strength of the northern wind.

The BBC is now taking the line that it is platforming Reform because they are running at around 28-30 per cent in the opinion polls.  I don't recall that rule applying when the Conservatives were in office.   In any case as the Lib Dems have been at around 14/15 per cent on that basis they should get half as much coverage as Reform instead of being almost invisible.

If Reform's policies and personalities were challenged more by the BBC, ITV and Sky it is possible that voters might start to have doubts about their fitness to govern.   However, quite of the lot of the Reform vote is arguably a 'none of the above' vote.  The Tories failed after 14 years, Labour failed after 14 months (!) so why not try something different?

Having said all that, I can still visualise the nightmare of King William V having to welcome Farage as prime minister and I am continuing to consider contingency plans for leaving the country.

How is South Borsetshire's Labour MP coping?

It has been a puzzle to me why Labour MPs should bring down their own government.  Changing leader is another matter, although defenestration is far more common in the Conservative Party.

I have decided to use a fictitious composite 2024 intake Labour MP as a benchmark.   Here is the first instalment.

Guy Bland didn’t really expect to become a Labour MP or at least that was not his career strategy.  As the public affairs ‘guy’ for a medium-sized charity he thought that doing well in an unwinnable constituency would give him brownie points with an incoming Labour Government.   He might then be hired by a bigger charity or even a lobbying firm.  He and his wife, Emma Bland, who worked in religious affairs for the BBC, could then afford to start a family in London.

South Borsetshire constituency included the cathedral city of Felpersham, the market town and county town of Borchester and a number of villages such as Ambridge.   The sitting MP, Hazel Woolley, a hotelier by trade, had a majority of over 12,000.   However, her hard line Brexiteer and generally right wing stance was not particularly popular locally.   Her comment that farmers should get out from under the comfort blanket of EU subsidy payments did not go down too well..

Her main challenger appeared to be the Liberal Democrat leader on the county council, Mark Grundy.   A keen sportsman in his day he had played for both Felpersham City football team and the Borsetshire minor counties cricket team.  His slogan was ‘Mark My Words: Borsetshire born and bred.’

The Green candidate, Marjorie Antrobus, ran a local animal rescue centre that looked after all sorts of animals, but was out of favour with local cat ladies who accused her of being ‘Doggist’.   (I have heard such a charge in real life at a cats event).

Guy visited the constituency most weekends, although the predominant ly left wing constituency party gave him little encouragement, seeing him as a New Labour re-tread.    His wife was a communicant Anglican so each Sunday he accompanied her to one of the local churches.

The campaign had just started when he became aware that he might have a chance of doing better than coming a good second or third.   He had emerged from a church in Borchester after morning service when two elderly ladies strode towards him.   He feared he was about to be upbraided, but instead one of them said: ‘My sister and I have never voted Labour in our lives, but we are sick to death of this Government and we can see that you and your wife are decent Christian people.’

He had made no plans to buy a local base or establish a constituency office, but the result confirmed his concerns:

Bland, Guy Joshua (Labour and Co-op)                     19,327

Grundy, Mark (Liberal Democrat)                              15,484

Woolley, Hazel (Conservative)                                    11,225

Antrobus, Marjorie   (Green)                                         2.026

Nelson, Horatio (True Patriot)                                          517

How have things worked out for Guy?

After the count, Emma said to him ‘You will never get re-elected, however hard you work.’   Nevertheless, Guy was able to rent a spare flat from the cathedral and set up a constituency office.  He and Emma had a child.  

His first challenge was the Labour plans on inheritance tax for farmers.   He decided the best way to proceed was to work with other rural Labour MPs to get implementation delayed and modified.  Eventually the NFU realised that this was likely to have more effect than parading shiny tractors and combines in London.   Making concessions would be seen as another sign of Government weakness and the Treasury was firmly behind the proposals, but the arrival of yet another Defra secretary of state offered a glimmer of hope.

His next challenge was to find some way of defending Keir Starmer against charges of poor judgment.  He decided to keep a low profile, focusing on the summer fetes circuit.   However, his local party was firmly behind the Andy Burnham stalking horse candidate for deputy leader and this offered a new source of tension with local activists.

A general election in two years?

I have known Professor Sir John Curtice since he was a DPhil student at Oxford so when he said on Friday in a long essay on the BBC website that Reform had every chance of being the largest party after the next general election, I took it very seriously.  He is the doyen of electoral studies in this country and scrupulously non-partisan.

Nigel Farage has said that he anticipates a general election by 2026.   The Goodwin Sands expects it even sooner, and the lady journo who is a tax exile in Dubai wants it imminently.

So how might an early general election come about and what would the Conservatives do as a rump party? The usual scenario is a deepening of the fiscal crisis.

Don't expect the IMF to act as a deus ex machina.   Even in the so-called (Treasury exaggerated) crisis of 1976, they didn't ask for a general election or even a change of prime minister or chancellor, just for some changes in policy.  But as I explained in an earlier post the IMF is not what it was nor is the UK so reliant on dollars.

So apparently Labour MPs will bring down their own government.  I am still puzzling out this case of turkeys voting for an early Christmas.

Someone did suggest on X that the King (whomsoever he might be) could dissolve Parliament on his own initiative, otherwise why have a King?   Well, the monarch has to abide by the constitution (or its conventions).    However, given that members of the royal family have apparently contracted cancer as result of being vaccinated for covid, I suppose anything is possible.

BTW, I don't know what is more dangerous, platforming an arson advocate or giving credence to opponents of vaccination.   I had measles when I was seven and I was really ill, but it can be a killer for young children.

OK, but let's assume that Labour has fallen and Reform is the largest party.   What do the Conservatives do?  Here in Warwickshire they have neither supported nor opposed Reform, i.e., let them form a cabinet while saying they will judge policy case by case.

I think they hope that Reform will self destruct and it does seem that they are starting to recognise that most of the county council's funding is committed by statute (plus SEND parents and relatives of the elderly will certainly kick up a fuss if their support is restricted  even more).   Cutting out a cycle way and stopping a small spend on Net Zero doesn't allow you to reduce council tax.

Meanwhile, migrants occupy a one time Hilton hotel a couple of miles from County Hall.  I went by on the bus the other day and was shocked to see some of them out jogging.

Another possible political scenario is that the Conservatives defenestrate the hapless Badenoch and go for generic leadership.   I don't like Jenrick or his policies (he appears to be taking an even harder line that Reform on migration) but he is smart and effective and could claw back some of those on the right for the Conservatives.

BTW, I don't think that the Party With No Name/Green electoral alliance is quite as straightforward as it looks.  It could well work in major cities or those like Brighton, but it seems to me that the rural Green vote is more conservative than socialist, trying to preserve a 'heritage' countryside free of pylons, solar farms and wind towers.

Nevertheless, I am not ruling out Nigel Farage in Downing Street and I am starting to think about which other country I might live in.

Angela Rayner's plight

The row over Angela Rayner's housing arrangements is of personal interest to me as I am in the process of downsizing to a retirement apartment with my new wife.

I had thought that I could rely on the local solicitors who are doing the conveyancing to tell me how much stamp duty I owe (incidentally a transaction tax that doesn't encourage freeing up larger houses).

But now it appears that I can't rely on them giving me the right figure and I might have to engage learned counsel which will involve expense and delay.

Otherwise I might find myself subject to a surcharge.   On the other hand, I don't suppose I'll be vilified in the local paper or have 'tax evader' scrawled outside my house.

The stamp duty regulations are more complex than they first appear and Angela Rayner has been foolish given that she knows there are people waiting to get her.

However, I really don't understand the apparently widely held view that the country is best run by people who have gone to Eton (Johnson) or another fee-paying school (Farage).   Over 90 per cent of us went to state education.

Angela Rayner clearly annoys some people because she is a woman from a council estate who left school at 16 and became deputy prime minister.   Her presence in government balances the less performative persona of Starmer.

So if she goes it will be a win for the Conservatives (and weasel Chris Mason with his lose-lose scenario). I'm not sure it will keep Badenoch in post to the next election, though.

Trying to build a prime ministerial department

There is no doubt that the relationship between the Prime Minister and the Chancellor is the most crucial ministerial one in government.   Even when it starts well it often goes wrong - think Thatcher and Lawson. Another possibility is that the prime minister cedes authority over economic policy to the Chancellor and the Treasury, essentially the deal between Blair and Brown.   Something similar has happened with Starmer and Reeves.

It hasn't turned out that well, although my interpretation is not that Starmer is too weak to sack Reeves.  She is not that popular with the public, the Parliamentary party or party activists.

In many respects she has succumbed to Treasury orthodoxy - not that that is always a bad thing, someone has to ask awkward questions about ever rising public expenditure.   However, cutting the winter fuel allowance made fiscal sense but was bad politics.

It seems to me that what Starmer is doing is making a belated attempt to build prime ministerial capacity. Staffing at the centre of government is relatively limited compared with other countries, e.g., the German Chancellery.   Part of the problem is that No.10 and No.11 (effectively the same building) are so cramped.  You can put people in the Cabinet Office, but then they are one remove away from the decision makers. 

And don't get me started on the inadequacies of the Palace of Westminster!   Actually it would be a good idea to move the Commons, the Prime Minister and the key departments out of London and further north, but that will never happen.

Darren Jones is clearly one of the smarter government ministers and if anyone can help Starmer to get more of a grip on things, he will.   Meanwhile the autumn budget becomes more of a defining event.  The unprecedented amount of kite flying has actually harmed the real economy because every leaked suggestion is being treated as a concrete proposal.

Why the 1976 IMF crisis is not really relevant

We live in febrile times with talk of civil war and the Government imploding.  I saw the other day that three quarters of Labour MPs would lose their seats if there was a general election tomorrow.   However, there isn't going to be a general election tomorrow or even next month which is a problem with a lot of contemporary commentary.

The mainstream media says that it is boosting Reform because it is 'making the political weather', but there is an interesting cause and effect relationship here: the media largely ignores the Lib Dems (70+ MPs), the Greens (as many MPs as Reform and more councillors) and Plaid Cymru (the equivalent number of MPs).

However, right-wing commentators believe that somehow the Government is going to implode and Labour MPs will vote like turkeys for an early Christmas.

The most popular scenario is that the Government will be brought down by a fiscal crisis.  Government borrowing costs are rising, but that is happening in a number of countries, not least France which faces a real government and governing crisis.   Trump's attack on the idea of an independent central bank certainly does not help.

Commentators are raising the spectre of the 1976 IMF intervention, but this is problematic on two fronts.  First, subsequent archival research has shown that the economy was not in as a bad a state as was claimed at the time and what one had (to simplify) is the Treasury pushing its agenda.   I refer you to   Chris Rogers,‘The Politics of Economic Policy Making in Britain: A Re-assessment of the 1976 IMF Crisis’ Politics & Policy, 37(5), 971-994.

I should disclose that I was supervisor of Chris's PhD along with Pete Burnham.

The second consideration is that, as an eminent American economist discussed on Radio 4 this morning, dollar reserves were then more important to us: indeed, they were more important to everyone.  The dollar looks quite likely to decline as an international reserve currency, in part as a consequence of current US economic policy.

I certainly do not rule out a Reform government after the next election, although much could change including a Conservative revival under generic leadership.   However, the example of Warwickshire shows that the Conservatives seem happy to be supine when dealing with Reform.

19-year old leader says Tories and Lib Dems are toast

The 19-year old leader of Warwickshire County Council strode confidently on to the steps of Shire Hall this week and predicted that the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats were finished.

This seemed a slightly odd claim given that he had been elected leader in a 23-23 tied vote against a Liberal Democrat, the Reform chair of the council using his casting vote.

My confidence in his ability to lead the cash strapped council was not enhanced when he proposed spending £190k on special political assistants to come up with new ideas.   He said that council officials has not responded to a challenge to come up with fresh ideas, but their job is to implement the plans of the political leadership.   Evidently these do not exist.

In addition local councils are effectively agents for implementing existing legislation and government policies.  Thus, county councils may assess individual SEND cases differently, but they have to have an effective SEND policy - which costs a large part of their budget along with adult social care.

Leaving aside the fact that a general election is three or four years away (despite the predictions from the Goodwin Sands that Labour will somehow spontaneously combust), the Lib Dems seem to be holding their own in local by-elections while the record of Reform is patchy, losing some seats they have had to defend.

As for the Conservatives, their still have a brand.   At some point they will decide that Kemi Kaze is not the answer and will opt either to appeal to Reform voters and appoint Generic (who knows how to do a Tik Tok stunt) or decide to be a One Nation party again and elect James Not So Cleverley (whose appeal is that he is sold rather than clever).

Or they get Penny Mordaunt back and she could point both ways.   In any event they are not finished.

BTW, I have one thing in common with Councilllor Finch.   Anyone who can work out what it is will win a small prize (yet to be determined).

Why does the BBC platform Farage?

This has been puzzling me and others for some time.  It's counter intuitive: Reform in office would defund the BBC regardless of how much of a boost they try to give them now.

A focus group report noted that one comment was that the Lib Dems were 'invisible'.   No wonder: they have over 70 seats in the Commons, but get very little air time.   The Greens have as many MPs as Reform and more councillors but might as well not exist.

One BBC answer is that Reform are ahead in the polls.   I don't recall that being the criterion for coverage in the past.  If Reform fall back, will coverage also reduce?   I doubt it.

Another is that they are a news story.   Last night the BBC's news values were that the death of an American wrestler was more important than a major trade deal with India.    It will be interesting to see what sort of coverage the new 'Fruit and Nut' party (as yet unnamed) gets.

BBC commentators will no doubt claim that it is their job to hold the Government to account.  It's a shame they didn't  pursue some of the scandals under the Conservatives as vigorously.

Part of the answer is that many of the high ups at the BBC, not least hapless supremo Tim Davie. were Tory appointees.   Commentators like the 'weasel' Chris Mason and Tory Laura come across as closet Tories or at least they miss the tip offs they got under the Tories (add the rat Peston on ITV to that crew). Laura's attempts to score 'gothchas' are a pathetic substitute for television journalism.    Davie has even floated changing programme content to align it with the values of Reform voters.

Impartial broadcasting?   Sadly no.   When I did TV work (starting at age 13) I preferred Sky to the BBC because the latter was so obsessed with 'balance' that it killed the story.   Perhaps it was a necessary price.

Good old London town

It's open season on London from right-wing commentators writing from exile in Dubai or filling the pages of the Spectator.   Even The Economist had an editorial on 'The price of public decay' which starts by talking about London.

Robert Jenrick staged his YouTube stunt at Stratford underground station, drawing attention to the number of young (mostly) men evading their fares.

The blame for all this is placed at the door of the mayor Sadiq Kahn whose religious affiliation is well known and presumably should be down the underground challenging fare evaders or cleaning graffiti on the Bakerloo Line.

I travelled across London twice last week and encountered no problems at all, just seeing the vibrant, cosmopolitan city I have always known.  When I was growing up in the 1950s black and brown faces were far from unknown.   Some were students, but my mother's best friends recruited Jamaican immigrants for their small factory and they stayed with them all their working lives.

My youngest (admittedly no spring chicken) tells me she is spending the weekend in the capital and is looking forward to the shows, the parks, the musuems and the river (which used to smell terribly in the summer in the 1950s).

Of course, the epidemic of smart phone thefts is a problem, but London is not the only city to suffer from global organised crime.  Don't be put off enjoying what this world city has to offer.

Letters to a great-granddaughter (7)

In May my great-granddaughter came from Spain to England for my wedding.  The concept of a great-grandfather was difficult for her to grasp, but she was soon calling me 'grandad'.

In this post I have tried to summarise the various forces that threaten her future.   At my stage of life it is very easy to take a 'glass half empty' stance and I should emphasise that there are many positive opportunities ahead, not least in her adopted home.

I have not discussed the challenges in any particular order, but it is clearly that AI is one of the most potentially transformative.  The analogue world I knew has largely disappeared and the digital world is here.   

There has been a certain amount of negative hyperbole about AI with visions of humanoid robots more intelligent than us roaming the Earth.  Scare stories about a decline in entry level jobs due to AI were effectively knocked on the head by David Smith writing in The Times.   However, we may be nearer the 15 hour week envisaged a century or so ago by J M Keynes and that is going to require some disruptive changes in the economy and society.   There will also be many benefits in areas such as health care.

The strength of organised crime relative to the state is an area of concern.   In Haiti the gangs seem to be taking control; in Mexico it is a continuing battle; and it is a growing problem in France.   If your phone is stolen in London it is likely to enter a chain that will see it rapidly exported  by criminals, the same goes for high performance cars. In Spain corruption appears to be widespread.  The role of organised crime in illegal migration is there for all to see.   The state is increasingly seen as unable to protect its own citizens.

I have great respect for William Hague (I greatly enjoyed being shown round his beautiful garden in Wales by him while his wife took me round their superb library).  He recently stated that nuclear proliferation was the greatest threat we face.

How near Iran was to developing a useable nuclear device and how far any efforts in that direction have been disrupted is way above my pay grade.   However, if Iran got nuclear weapons (leaving aside the reaction of Israel) Saudi Arabia and Turkey and probably the Gulf States would want them as well.  As tensions between Tirrkey and Israel increase, Turkey may decide that it needs that capability anyway.

All the scientific evidence on climate change is tossed aside by know nothings and as a consequence we are not taking the measures we need to take quickly enough.   As a result we may have to focus on adaptation, butt that is going to be expensive.

Unfortunately, our political responses to these challenges are becoming less sophisticated.   One can understand the despair of young people struggling with the cost of living and seeing public services deteriorate.   Belief in the big money tree seems to persist and nostrums like a wealth tax are advanced despite the fact that they have not worked wherever they have been tried.

Populism on the right and to an extent on the left (the proposed Fruit and Nut Party) is flourishing, although there have been one or two setbacks as in Australia and Canada.  Frustrated voters are attracted to 'none of the above' alternatives and simple solutions to complex problems.

I still believe in the need for evidence, expertise and effective policies.   In a society that is increasingly fragmented we need proportional representation, ideally STV, but constitutional tinkering will not be  enough.

But as Shakespeare said, our doubts are traitors.   We have to believe that better times are possible, however tough the road ahead.

The bureaucratic maze of the Economic Crime Act

If there is one generalisation I would extract from the political science literature, it is that it is no good passing legislation without considering issues of implementation and enforcement.   How much will the legislation cost to put into effect?   Will it impose time and money costs on actors outside government?

It is very tempting to act as a legislative factory: I well remember sitting in on the last few days of a California state legislature cycle and seeing a blizzard of bills passed, some of them contradictory and others devoid of any real content.   The EU is sometimes at risk of being a legislative factory, particularly as it is largely reliant on member states to implement and their willingness and capacity to do so varies considerably (even before we begin to consider the issue of corruption).

I do not think that company directors and even shareholders have taken fulyl on board the implications of the Economic Crime and Corporate Transparency Act 2023.  Indeed, two company directors of a property management company I spoke to had never heard of it.

Let me try and briefly describe my 'journey' with this legislation.   I am the (unpaid) director of a niche publishing company.   Fortunately we have an on the ball company secretary who alerted us to this legislation.

Essentially it is intended to combat the use of corporate arrangements in the UK for illicit and illegal purposes.

I then tried to comply online and was unsuccessful despite providing my passport number, home address etc.. So much for Tony Blair's assertion that everything can be digitised.  In the meantime our company secretary had contacted Companies House (the enforcement body).  It took about an hour to speak to a human and it is evident that they were overwhelmed.

I was advised to go to Warwick Post Office with a print out sent to me online and my passport.  Having managed to find a parking place in Warwick, I was told that the QR code had not printed successfully. A fellow director was told in London that there was a fault with the chip on her passport.

With a deadline looming, I decided to have a second attempt at Warwick Post Office, this time using the bus.  Driver S Gonzalez gave me a whirlwind tour of the extensive Warwick suburbs and industrial estates.

Once again my QR code was rejected, but a kind lady took pity on me, used my passport to generate a new code and then took my photograph.  I was verified as a bona fide UK citizen!

Much to my surprise I then got a letter from a heritage railway company in which I have shares.  They stated that they were now required to keep a full record of all their (many) shareholders.   Fortunately they provided a disclosure form I could scan and send back, but they did warn me that failure to provide the required information 'was a criminal offence'.

I am quite busy so the time spent on this was an unintended consequence of the legislation and many of those affected have clearly not heard about it.

I should caution that I am not a lawyer and you may need to seek legal advice if you are affected by this legislation.  

The magic money tree is back

One of the unfortunate consequences of the restoration of winter fuel payments is that voters' faith in the magic money tree has been restored.   Shake it hard enough and it will deliver!

Pensioners, of course, are much more likely to vote and those over 55 voting exceeded those under 55 at the last general election.    

The Government has suffered political pain for little fiscal gain.  Ironically, although I will be (rightly) taxed on the payment I receive, my partner will receive it tax free.

The policy change encouraged more pensioners to apply for pension credit which is a good if unintended outcome but it reduces the fiscal benefits even further.

Why did the Government do it?   I think they were genuinely spooked by the state they found the public finances in and thought this would be a current financial year win.

It also means that no one is likely to challenge the triple lock although it has delivered pensions £800 higher than they would otherwise be because of the earnings link.

Its defenders will say that state pensions are lower in the UK than elsewhere in Europe, but private pensions are higher.   Not everyone has them, but that is why we have pension credit.

This policy change will encourage backbench Labour MPs to demand retreats on benefit payments and qualifications which means that it will be difficult to avoid tax rises in the autumn.

Two big challenges for the Chancellor

Those who admire David Smith's balanced and sensible assessments of the British economy are spoilt for choice in the Sunday Times this morning as he has two articles.

One points to the increasing cost of financing government debt as coupons on gilt edged stock increase.  Part of this is the result of the uncertainty created by Donald Trump's policies with interest on US Treasuries also rising.

However, UK gilt edged interest rates are also higher than in comparable economies.   Like the US we are running a twin deficit: on our spending and on our balance of payments.

More generally, Smith draws attention to the political reluctance to rein in public spending.   (My words) UK taxpayers continue to think that they can have American levels of taxes and Nordic standards of public services.   As for soaking the rich, the top one per cent already pay nearly one third of income tax receipts.

If I had been Chancellor, I would not have scrapped the winter fuel allowance, although I would have made it taxable for the one million or so pensioners who (like me) are higher rate taxpayers.   I would also have ended the emergency 5p Ukraine war cut in fuel duty introduced by Rishi Sunak.

Reeves is now hemmed in by Labour's election pledge not to increase the three main sources of tax revenue while welfare benefits continue to increase.  She is also hamstrung by her fiscal rules: breaking them could provoke a market panic.

I dislike the 'Rachel from accounts' misogyny from the right-wing press, but she has just two more chances to get it right: the impending spending review and the autumn budget.

The popularity of populism

The picture is really rather mixed.   Canada returned a centrist internationalist as its prime minister, although the margin wasn't large and hotheads in Alberta are talking of seceding.

Rather unusually Australia elected a left of centre government for a second term, rejecting the hard right opposition.  Now Romania has chosen a centrist liberal president over a hard right choice.

But then in Portugal far right Chega has broken the two party duopoly to become the second largest party in the legislature.     In the Netherlamds and Austria far right parties have received the largest share of the vote in the last two years.  They are also strong in Germany, Belgium, Sweden and Finland.   Italy offers an example of right-wing pragmatism, while the picture in France is currently confused with the Republicans choosing the hard right interior minister as leader.

In the UK Reform made substantial gains in the local government elections, albeit on low turnouts and focused on certain parts of the country.   However, it was enough to encourage right-wing newspapers to big up Nigel Farage as the next prime minister, not to forget the platform he is given by the BBC.

In my own ward the Liberal Democrats swept home with nearly 2,000 votes with every other party getting a few hundred each.   Reform got 370.

I know only one lady who backs Reform.   Somewhat paradoxically, she volunteers in a Global South charity shop.   However, she complains that going to the shop she hears people speaking other than English.

I don't generally eavesdrop on conversations as I walk along the street.   I doubt whether most foreign speakers are abusing me, but if they are saying 'Look at that fat, stupid Gammon' I wouldn't understand anyway.

The available evidence suggests that there is a hard core of Reform voters who also voted for UKIP, the Brexit Party and Leave in the referendum.   Typically, they are older working class white males living in deprived areas.   Thus Reform made big inroads in North Warwickshire, but made little headway in the south of the county.

However, it is evident that Reform also attracted some younger voters and more women than in the past.  In many ways this was a 'none of the above' vote.   There is plenty of evidence of failing public services and a lack of confidence in the mainstream parties to fix these problems, albeit it seems a bit hard to expect Labour to fix problems in ten months that have built up over 14 years.

More specifically, Reform have filled an unoccupied space in an increasingly complex political spectrum: conservative on social issues, especially immigration, but leaning left on standard economic issues, e.g., public ownership of public utilities and 'national champions'.   It was a space the remnants of the Social Democrats such as Rod Liddle - but they lacked a charismatic, high profile leader.

Anyway one can't predict 2029 general election results from 2025 local elections, although Nick Clegg may have a point when he says that the Lib Dems could face another coalition challenge.

Letters to a great-granddaughter (6)

My great-granddaughter currently lives in Spain with her mother and grandparents.  Spain has its own housing crisis, as evidenced in recent demonstrations and measures taken by the government.

However, today I want to focus on the UK and Generation Rent.  I am going to start with a fictionalised case of a couple who are distant relatives by marriage of my great-granddaughter.   They are in their mid-twenties and are both qualified to postgraduate level.  Consequently they have relatively well paid jobs, bur are subject to a 'graduate tax' of 9 per cent which eats into their disposable income.

For work reasons they live in the London outer commuter belt, although they work locally.  However, the area itself is very prosperous with many well-paid employment opportunities.   They are paying £1,500 a month rent for a two bedroom property.   They are relatively fortunate in that they have some funds for a deposit, but it may not be enough in the expensive local market.

Many graduates are finding it difficult to find jobs that reflect their qualifications and various reports I have seen indicate that the 'graduate premium' is probably decreasing.   Many graduates are living at home with parents while they seek suitable work.

In Germany, the AFD appears to have won some support from younger people who are disgruntled because their standard of living is below that of their parents.   This was particularly the case in the former DDR, but also applies to some industrial areas in the west.

Reform in the UK draws a lot of its support from Brexit voters who have supported other hard right parties such as UKIP in the past.   In particular, it is popular with older white males.   Of course, in time, this support base will naturally decline.  However, there are indications that Reform is making headway with younger males in particular.

I would like to give some stylised facts from family history about the changing housing market.   Go back to the 1921 census and my maternal grandfather, having lost his good wartime job in the defence industry, was renting privately and taking in lodgers to make ends meet.   My paternal grandfather was shortly to move into some of the first social housing provided by the Co-op.

In the late 1930s, my parents and all my uncles were in skilled manual or junior non-manual occupations.  They were all able to get mortgages to purchase terraced modern properties aimed at people like them.   One uncle who had a small business was able to pay cash for a semi-detached property.   There was effectively no planning system which did produce some sprawl and inefficient use of land.

When I got my first post in 1971 I was fortunate enough to be given rent free accommodation with all utilities and local tax covered.   In three years I was able to save enough for a substantial deposit on a flat.  The only problem I had was that I was single, having broken up with my then girl friend, and the Halifax was reluctant to lend to me, but I got an insurance broker to intervene on my behalf.  Following my marriage in 1978, we were able to purchase a large Victorian terrace needing some TLC for £16,250.   I still live there.

Clearly today's twenty somethings face a much tougher environment.   The ratio between incomes and house prices has exploded.   The Government is trying to increase supply by facing down Nimbys and freeing up planning permission, but the construction industry has shortages of skilled labour.   It is going to take time to turn things round and in the meantime it is easy to blame migrants.

Letters to a great-granddaugher (5)

I sent a card today to Spain for my great-granddaughter's 2nd birthday.   It is three weeks away, but the time post takes to reach rural Spain is unpredictable.   I am looking forward to seeing her when I get married in May.

I think that parenting is much more difficult today than in the analogue world of the 1970s and 1980s.  Social media poses challenges for parents that I didn't have to deal with and my great-granddaughter will live in a world in which AI will probably rule supreme.   Like all technologies, it has benefits and disadvantages, but it will be challenging to regulate effectively.

I also think that a lot more is expected today of parents in terms of intervening in the lives of their children.  My approach was rather laissez-faire, 'whatever'.   There were scrapes along the way, but that is unavoidable with teenagers.   It's also easier to deal with them when you are relatively young yourself which is why I was pleased when my granddaughter had her daughter at the age of 22.

Unfortunately, though, I was still hard at work when my grandchildren were growing up which meant I wasn't able to give them as much time as I would have liked.  

One threat in the modern world that I haven't really been able to deal with (I am not a criminologist) is the rise of global criminal organizations.   Of course, they have been around for a long time but one increasingly sees them challenging the power of the state in Mexico and increasingly in France, for example.

I am not convinced that drugs policies that focus on the supply side rather than demand really work, but lifting prohibition has its many risks.  However, is cannabis really more dangerous than alcohol?  Interesting that the younger generation consumes much less alcohol, but zero or law alcohol beers have improved considerably.

All these challenges demand better political leadership and the trend towards populist authoritarian regimes is worrying and will be the subject of my last letter.

Voters do believe in the big money tree

A survey published in the Financial Times ahead of the Spring Statement is rather concerning as it shows that many voters do believe in the big money tree: https://www.ft.com/content/1581a348-41b4-4a01-b900-b7310522794e (unfortunately it is behind a pay wall, although some universities have access).

As Rob Ford of Manchester University, it shows that voters have a 'cake and eat it' approach to tax and spending.  It has long been observed that British voters want Scandinavian levels of public services and American levels of taxes.   The result is public debt at 100 per cent of GDP and a £20 billion a year bill just to service that debt.

47 per cent of voters believe that it is possible for government to reduce taxes and debt while increasing spending.  This suggests an alarming level of economic illiteracy.

What is more alarming is that younger voters are more inclined to believe this is possible: 63 per cent of 18-24 year olds and 62 per cent of 25 to 24 year olds.   The figure for those over 65 is 35 per cent as against 50 per cent who this is not possible.

What this suggests is an increasingly ungovernable country whoever is in office as voter expectations clash with economic reality.   Inflation would be one partial way out but has all sorts of economic and social costs.

Labour's fiscal dilemma

A distinguished group of economists has written to the Financial Times advising against further spending cuts and any return to austerity: https://www.ft.com/content/4b0d4ec3-cfb8-44fa-93a6-4474866dc917

They advise that further taxation is going to be necessary, but beyond stating that it should fall 'on the broadest shoulders' do not specify where it might come from.

Meanwhile a discussion on BlueSky showed Labour supporters disillusioned with what they saw as a Labour government offering more effective implementation of Tory policies.

Some argue that the fiscal rules should be abandoned, referring to what has happened in Germany.  However, that country's ratio of debt to GDP is in the low sixties in percentage terms whereas in the UK it is not far short of 100 per cent.   Abandoning the fiscal rules would certainly force up the cost of government borrowing.

The cost of benefits has risen by something like 40 per cent in real terms since 2013 and is projected to rise further despite recent policy changes: harsh on the most vulnerable or tinkering at the edges, depending on your perspective.

Labour has to exert some fiscal discipline, otherwise the cost of the welfare state will become unsustainable.  Clearly many of those unable to work need more systematic support to enable them to do so.

The left's answer is a wealth tax but the Government has no mandate for that, it would deter investment in the UK and the really wealthy would find ways of evading it.

Personally I would have increased fuel duty, a small increase would have yielded significant revenue and would have been bearable.  I would also have reversed Jeremy Hunt's unfunded cuts in employees national insurance, but Labour boxed itself in before the election.

Labour faces some difficult choices, but a large majority means rebellions will be embarrassing rather than fatal.

Letters to a great-granddaughter (4)

Measures to combat climate change are being opposed by right-wing populists everywhere, not least in the United States.  Admittedly, China continues to build coal fired power stations, but it is also investing heavily in renewables.

Opponents of climate change policies either argue that it is not happening at all or that it is not the result of human activity but is part of a normal long-run weather cycle.

I don't have the time, space or knowledge to thoroughly review the evidence, but recent reports suggest that the recommended 1.5 degree increase in global temperatures is already being exceeded. 

However, let me just feature one study published in the reputable journal Nature yesterday which suggests that the melting of glaciers is accelerating alarmingly with the equivalent of three Olympic swimming pools being lost each second.

These losses can be seen as a canary in the coal mine with implications for the melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and the Antarctic which would lead to a rise in global sea levels affecting vulnerable islands and coastal areas (not to mention flood defences in the River Thames).

What we are also seeing is an increase in the incidence of extreme weather incidents, notably floods.  These had a devastating effect close to my great-granddaughter's home in the Valencia region of Spain.

Admittedly, some of the policy responses to global warming have been defective.   Investing in heat pumps is of little use if houses are not properly insulated.   The UK has the oldest housing stock in Europe and as someone who lives in a 150 year old house, I know how difficult and expensive it is to exclude draughts.

For me carbon capture is still an unproven technology which requires further development to establish that it offers a long-term solution rather than a quick fix.

I also think that some of the direct action taken by climate change activists is counter productive.  Disrupting people's lives does not persuade them of the case for effective policy.

Some young people think that climate change is a real threat to their survival.  If unchecked, it is going to cause some very serious problems and the chances of effective international cooperation are not good.    Firms like BP are under shareholder pressure to invest in fossil fuels rather than renewables.

Recent international developments persuade me that nuclear war is a greater and more proximate threat. Without the US defence umbrella, and its own conventional land forces beset with challenges, Europe might be tempted to resort to a nuclear response to an invasion of its territory.   But the 515 or so nuclear weapons possessed by Britain and France are strategic and they lack the tactical weapons possessed by the United States and Russia.  These are worrying enough, but they are a stage short of all out escalatio.

In defence of 'Rachel from accounts'

The media love to campaign against a particular minister and bring them down to demonstrate their power.  Tulip Siddiq, the Economic Secretary to the Treasury, is in their sights at the moment.  KemiKaze has called for Starmer to dismiss her. She has reported herself for investigation and in any case is a minor prize.

The major target is Rachel Reeves with the right-wing media gleefully reporting that she will be out of a job in a year. Quite a bit of this commentary is misogynistic, not least from buffoon Boris Johnson whio likes to call her 'Rachel from Accounts'.   

As she is lockstep with Keir Starmer, he is the real target.   There have been allegations online that a prominent British commentator is colluding with Elon Musk to find ways of bringing down a legitimately elected government.  I didn't hear so many complaints about the first past the post system when the referendum to make a modest reform of ir was voted down.

There have been a few missteps.   Limiting the winter fuel allowance was the right decision but too politically costly for the sums saved.   It was not a measure targeted on those who needed it: last year I had to spend time and effort researching energy charities to give away the money I had received as a higher rate taxpayer.

As for the employers' national insurance surcharge, I am surprised that larger companies with substantial profits such as retailers cannot absorb it.   As for smaller business, to judge by the town I live in, the hospitality industry has substantial structural overcapacity.   Business has not made any constructive suggestions about how the fiscal gap might otherwise be filled.

Reeves is alleged to have 'fled' to Beijing on a prearranged visit because of some turmoil in the gilts markets which was evident in the equivalents in France and Germany.   The real issue here is concern about the impact of the Trump presidency on the US economy with tariffs stoking inflation and hence affecting the willingness of the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates which in turn has global impacts.

Comparisons with the IMF intervention in 1976 are invalid.   In ant case, the subsequent literature shows that the extent and depth of the problem then was exaggerated, but played into the hands of those who wanted to cut public expenditure.

David Smith in the Sunday Times today offers a balanced, informed and proportionate analysis of recent events.  He points out that although the pound has weakened against a strong dollar, although less so against the euro.   He comments: 'Comparisons with the autumn of 2022, when Liz Truss was prime minister and there was a loss of control of fiscal policy, are silly. Although gilt yields are higher now than then, they are close to the level of short-term official interest rates, the 4.75 per cent Bank rate.'

What we need to do, as Smith urges, is to focus on the underlying causes of our present problems: weak economic growth and very weak productivity.   I agree, but these problems predate the arrival of Rachel from Accounts.  

Farmers voted Tory after all

After many declaring that they were fed up with the Conservatives, the majority of farmers stayed close to their traditional allegiance and voted for the Tories in the 2024 general elecion after all, according to a survey conducted by Farmers Weekly.  (N = 767, 'strong spread by region and farm type', but owner-occupiers may be over represented. Self-selected sample).

Prospective voting surveys showed farmer support for the Conservatives decline from 72 per cent in 2020 to just over 40 per cent in 2024 before the general election.

In the event 57 per cent voted Conservative, while 15 per cent opted for Reform.   Despite the success of the Liberal Democrats in rural constituencies, only 8 per cent voted for them.  4 per cent voted for other (probably mainly the Plaid and the Scottish Nationalists).   Just 4 per cent voted for Labour with the balance made up by non voters and 'prefer not to say'.