End of the union?

In 1968 I published my first (co-authored) article in a respectable academic journal on Welsh and Scottish Nationalism. The article was derided by some colleagues, but I thought it was quite good for a third year undergraduate. I thought that the two emergent nationalisms need to be treated comparatively. I argued that Welsh nationalism had more of a cultural basis. Indeed, the four PC seats at Westminster are all adjacent to one another in traditional Welsh speaking areas. Gwn fod gan y blaid gefnogaeth mewn mannau eraill a'i bod yn ceisio adeiladu ei sylfaen drefol.

A subsequent and better received article was based on an analysis of SNP councillors in the two new towns of East Kilbride and Cumbernauld, one of the most fascinating pieces of work I have ever done and which gave me many anecdotes.

One of the potential longer term consequences of the general election is the possible break up of the United Kingdom. In the case of Northern Ireland, Nationalists now outnumber Unionists among MPs. Given that Sinn Fein saw their vote fall and the Democratic Unionists lost seats there may now be some impetus to get the power sharing arrangement working again so that urgent problems like the state of the health service can be tackled. Let no one say that a country can manage perfectly well without a functioning government.

Neither the UK nor Irish governments have any appetite for a border poll. However, in the longer run could we see a confederal arrangement on the island of Ireland, outside the UK, but with a devolved assembly at Stormont?

In this article, I am not going to deal with Wales, not because I think it is unimportant but because the future there is far less clear. There doesn't seem to be a real appetite for independence. Beth yw'r dyfodol i Gymru? Dydw I ddim yn gwybod.

Scotland

I have a sentimental attachment to Scotland. In 1793 my direct ancestor James Grant left his birthplace of Urquhart on the shores of Loch Ness and his father Donald Bain Grant to join the British Army. He fought at Waterloo and showed dangerous Europhile tendencies by marrying a French woman. In 1970 I was proud to graduate from a Scottish university. I regard myself as British rather than English, particularly given that my mother's family came from Cornwall.

Sentiment aside, disentangling the over 300 year relationship between England and Scotland would make Brexit seem a doddle. If an independent Scotland subsequently joined the EU, what would this mean for the Anglo-Scottish border?

When I was in Edinburgh last year my taxi driver described Nicola Sturgeon as 'a very dangerous woman'. I think he was right. I don't like her or what she stands for, but I respect her effectiveness in the pursuit of her beliefs.

To me it is evident that momentum is building for independence in Scotland. Young people in particular are more inclined to support it. Indy Ref2 could be very close - I would find it odd if independence was won by a handful of votes. My guess is that it might be like the second Quebec referendum, close but no cigar.

Even so, the dilemma is whether to have one at all. I do not think this is just a matter for the people of Scotland. It affects England as well. 'Engerland' on its own could well become inward looking and xenophobic. In the past Scottish leaders have played an important role in offering leadership to the UK.

I think at the very least it is reasonable to say that any referendum should not be held until after the Holyrood elections in May 2021. The UK Government can reasonably argue that its focus this year, and quite possibly for some of 2021, has to be on negotiating a trade and security agreement with the EU.

Boris Johnson is clearly minded not to allow a referendum at all. That might simply build support for the Nationalist cause. There is talk of the Scottish Government holding its own referendum. This would be challenged by the UK Government in the courts and they might well win. If such a referendum was held, unionists would be well advised to abstain to deny its legitimacy.

I think there is a better than evens chance of Scotland becoming independent and 'walking tall among the nations' a decade from now. If Scotland re-joined the EU, it would be obliged to join the euro and we would then have the inconvenience of changing money at the border even if there was a common travel zone. (As it is, although Scottish notes are legal tender south of the border, many retailers won't accept them).

I know that some English voters think that we would save money given that Scotland has a substantial fiscal deficit funded from the south. The SNP would argue that the country's oil has been stolen. This is a controversial issue and would be one of the most difficult subjects in independence negotiations.

I don't think Orkney and Shetland would be too keen on an independent Scotland. In Orkney the local flag (an adaptation of the Norwegian one) is displayed when ministers make the trek from Edinburgh.

A YouGov poll earlier this year found that Conservative activists were prepared to see the dissolution of the union as a price for obtaining Brexit. It seems a high price to pay to me.