The final straight

I was at a dinner in London last night at which a considerable number of what might be described as political enthusiasts were present and a poll round the table produced a remarkable consensus. The overwhelming majority forecast a Conservative overall majority of between 31 and 39. Of course, that may simply suggest that we were all wrong.

One well-known journalist suggested that a big Conservative majority would be better as a small majority would give the European Research Group more leverage. Maybe, but the Conservative remainers have largely gone and all Conservative candidates have had to pledge that they will back Brexit, whatever the consequences.

Sir John Curtice said recently that the election will be less geographically complicated than anticipated, although I think there could still be one or two unanticipated results. Three things seem reasonably clear:

• Labour is under pressure in its so-called 'red wall', including the ailing 'Beast of Bolsover', although some Labour voters might return to their traditional allegiances at the last minute.
• The Liberal Democrats are not going to win as many seats as anticipated, probably none in the south-west and I suspect that all the defectors will fail, so they may well have fewer than 21 seats, although more than 12. Jo Swinson did quite well in her Andrew Neil interview, but shouldn't start so many sentences with 'Look' which gives her a hectoring tone.
• The Conservatives will hold on to quite a few seats in Scotland, although Labour looks like being almost wiped out.

I doubt whether we will see a 'Portillo moment'. The likes of Dominic Raab and John Redwood will see their majorities badly dented, but will probably hang on.