Why did Labour hold Warwick and Leamington?

On a bad night for Labour, they managed to see off a Conservative challenge in the highly marginal constituency of Warwick and Leamington with a swing against them of just 0.79 per cent. How can this be explained?

I have lived in Leamington for forty-five years. I have seen Conservative and Labour MPs come and go: first Sir Dudley Smith (there had been a Conservative MP since 1910) defeated in the Labour landslide of 1997 by James Plaskitt, who in turn was defeated by Chris White in 2010 (he had been narrowly defeated in 2005). Then in 2017 Chris White was replaced on an above average swing by Matt Western, a county councillor.

Western's victory came as something of a surprise to him, so I am told. Another reliable source told me that last weekend he thought he was toast. He has been a hard working and effective constituency MP, but so was his predecessor, Chris White. Personal votes are not normally that large and the term at Warwick University had ended the preceding week, denting the student vote. Nevertheless, turnout at over 70 per cent was above the national average.

The Economist interviewed me over lunch and showed me their constituency poll which showed Conservative Jack Rankin one point ahead which, given the sample size, was well within the range of sampling error. The one quote they used from me was about the Countess of Warwick standing against Sir Anthony Eden as the Labour candidate in 1923 and campaigning from her chauffeur driven Rolls Royce.

I have not been able to find out the age of the Conservative candidate, Jack Rankin, anywhere but apparently he was the most youthful member of Windsor District Council. On his literature, the Warwick masters graduate and commodities trader looked very young indeed. Whether this influenced any voters one way or another is a matter of speculation.

One knowledgeable person observed to me, 'No mention of Corbyn in his literature and very little indication that he was actually Labour just the incumbent running for re-election. But then my one time student Vernon Coaker followed a similar strategy in Gedling. It has helped him hold the seat against the odds in the past, but this time he lost, albeit on a smaller than average swing for the East Midlands.

Given the sort of seat it is, one might expect the Liberal Democrats to do better, particularly given that they have quite a strong local government presence. They generally finish a poor third, but increased their share of the vote this time.

Warwick and Leamington was a Remain constituency, as far as I can recall the only one in the West Midlands. I suspect that the Midlands political correspondent, Patrick Burns, was one to something when he said at the last election was that it was like a North London seat, set in the middle of Warwickshire. Indeed, some of it looks like North London.

The Conservatives West Midlands website said that winning the seat back was a must if they were to have a majority in the Commons. With the Red Wall crumbling, they easily obtained a big majority anyway.