Thursday, 19 March 2015

Who would benefit from lost Lib Dem seats?

My back of the envelope calculations suggest that of the seats that the Lib Dems have very little chance of retaining, 11 would go to the Conservatives, 10 to Labour and four to the SNP.

There are two seats I am genuinely uncertain about: Fife North East (where Ming Campbell is retiring) and Argyll & Bute which is a genuine four way marginal. The winning candidate could have just about a quarter of the votes cast. The SNP is arguably in the best position to take both seats, but it is far from certain.

A lot depends on how the SNP vote holds up between now and election day. If it starts to fade, the Lib Dems could hold on in one or two more Scottish seats. Someone who knows the Highlands thinks that Charles Kennedy could hold on Ross, Skye & Lochaber, given the time and effort he spends on going to social events in the constituency. (It's almost like a seat in the Irish Dail).

If the Lib Dems do badly, then the 50-50 seats I identified yesterday would break six to the Conservatives, two to Labour and one to the SNP.

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