Thursday 9 May 2019

'Costcutter' election leaflet is disingenuous

The Conservatives are running their EU election campaign on the cheap, given that many of their activists and MPs disapprove of the elections being held and may not even vote for their own party.

I don't find the Conservative leaflet which arrived this morning much more impressive than one offering me a special deal on baked beans. If, as is stated, 'The only party which can get Brexit done is the Conservative Party' why are they talking to Labour? Moreover, many Conservatives think that the backstop in the deal is a trap and what is on offer is BRINO (Brexit in Name Only). Indeed, they argue that it is worse than current arrangements because the UK would have to accept EU rules without having a say in shaping them.

I think Brexiteers would be better off accepting the current offer now and challenging it later if needs be. At least the process would have started.

It is stated that Nigel Farage is 'standing for personal gain'. I am no fan of Nigel Farage, but I do accept that he genuinely believes that the EU is a bad thing and Britain would be better off out of it.

It is stated that if Labour top the poll it would take Jeremy Corbyn 'closer to the Downing Street'. I doubt it; in any case, I expect the Brexit Party to top the poll. Turnout will be around the normal level of 35 per cent, most likely (admittedly tricky to forecast). In some ways the Peterborough by-election will be more significant as it looks as if there will be one 'People's Vote' candidate'.

The Government intends to introduce the withdrawal bill, but I can't see it getting very far, even if an amendment is passed to remove the backstop which the EU would not accept.

My nightmare scenario would be this. May is finally forced out in June. A hard line Brexiteer is elected as Conservative leader (it could be Bozza, but Raab is gaining traction). The new PM goes to Brussels and demands a renegotiation of the agreement. The EU falls about laughing. PM returns to Britain and signals a no deal Brexit. The Government is defeated in a vote of no confidence. A general election is held and another hung Parliament is returned. Deadlock.

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