Clacton does not reflect the country as a whole

Conducting a poll in by-election with 34 candidates is not easy, but what we have suggests that Nigel Farage will win 60-70 per cent of the vote in Clacton, but on a smaller turnout.  Whether beating someone dressed as a garbage can is a triumph is another matter.   Voters there may well get a chance in the autumn to choose between the normal political parties.

It appears that constituents don't care that Farage carries out none of the duties of a constituency MP which would cause a storm in most seats.

I thought it would be interesting to compare Clacton's demographics with those of GB as a whole and my own constituency of Warwick and Leamington.   We recently had a town council by-election in my own ward (Royal Clarendon).   The Greens won, with the Lib Dems just behind and Labour in touching distance.   The Conservatives were way behind and Reform didn't stand.

33 per cent of Clacton voters have what is described as a good education.  The figure is 51 per cent nationally and 62 per cent in W & L.  Gross household income is £33,147 in Clacton, £42,397 nationally and £46,828 in the Royal Spa and Warwick.   Deprivation is indexed at 64 per cent in Clacton, 51 per cent nationally and 43 per cent in my neck of the woods.

The mean age in Clacton is 56.6, as against 49.8 nationally and 47.6 in W & L.  Clacton is 96 per cent ethically white compared with 83 per cent nationally and 82 per cent in W & L.  We have a large Sikh community and have had a Sikh mayor  In addition, there is a large Portuguese speaking population, many of them Brazilians.   Areas which have very few ethnic minorities tend to be most concerned about immigration as an issue.

It's interesting that voters who clearly have many economic challenges think that a party backed by billionaires is going to help them surmount then,

The spectre of Conform

Unconfirmed press reports suggest that Nigel Farage is open to some kind of agreement with the Conservatives after the next general election.   It is certainly possible that Reform could be the largest party but without a majority.   My hunch is that this could be a 1974 scenario with a second election following.

It need not be, and probably would not be a formal coalition, more a confidence and supply agreement as Theresa May had with the Democratic Unionists.

Living in Warwickshire, I have seen the spectacle of the Reform Party and its 19-year old leader being propped up by the Conservatives.   The make up of the authority is complex, in part because of defections and one suspension (of a Green councillor).

However, when a no confidence motion was introduced to unseat the leader, he survived by one vote as the Conservatives sat on their hands apart from one brave soul who was then suspended for three months (subject to an appeal).

I have seen the future and it doesn't work.   Unfortunately, a lot of voters have said 'we've tried the Conservatives and Labour and they don't work, so why not give Reform a try?'  I could give plenty of reasons.

The Liberal Democrats seem to be mainly in the minds of voters in terms of Ed Davey's stunts, the man in the wet suit.  They would claim to have distinctive policies, but the overall narrative is less clear and discontent appears to be growing (although they are well dug in if one looks at some localities, especially at local government level).

'Costcutter' election leaflet is disingenuous

The Conservatives are running their EU election campaign on the cheap, given that many of their activists and MPs disapprove of the elections being held and may not even vote for their own party.

I don't find the Conservative leaflet which arrived this morning much more impressive than one offering me a special deal on baked beans. If, as is stated, 'The only party which can get Brexit done is the Conservative Party' why are they talking to Labour? Moreover, many Conservatives think that the backstop in the deal is a trap and what is on offer is BRINO (Brexit in Name Only). Indeed, they argue that it is worse than current arrangements because the UK would have to accept EU rules without having a say in shaping them.

I think Brexiteers would be better off accepting the current offer now and challenging it later if needs be. At least the process would have started.

It is stated that Nigel Farage is 'standing for personal gain'. I am no fan of Nigel Farage, but I do accept that he genuinely believes that the EU is a bad thing and Britain would be better off out of it.

It is stated that if Labour top the poll it would take Jeremy Corbyn 'closer to the Downing Street'. I doubt it; in any case, I expect the Brexit Party to top the poll. Turnout will be around the normal level of 35 per cent, most likely (admittedly tricky to forecast). In some ways the Peterborough by-election will be more significant as it looks as if there will be one 'People's Vote' candidate'.

The Government intends to introduce the withdrawal bill, but I can't see it getting very far, even if an amendment is passed to remove the backstop which the EU would not accept.

My nightmare scenario would be this. May is finally forced out in June. A hard line Brexiteer is elected as Conservative leader (it could be Bozza, but Raab is gaining traction). The new PM goes to Brussels and demands a renegotiation of the agreement. The EU falls about laughing. PM returns to Britain and signals a no deal Brexit. The Government is defeated in a vote of no confidence. A general election is held and another hung Parliament is returned. Deadlock.

Comparing UKIP and the SDP

Two insurgent parties: how do they compare? UKIP and the SDP