Friday 6 December 2019

What does Wrexham poll show?

Wrexham has been held by Labour since 1935. Yet a constituency poll by The Economist shows Labour down 20 points and the Conservatives 15 per cent ahead. If this is typical of 'red wall' seats, then the consequences for Labour could be devastating. It could be an outlier, but there are some indications from elsewhere to suggest that it is not.

If the sample size was similar to that for Warwick and Leamington it would be about 500, so some caution is necessary, but it doesn't explain away such a large lead.

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