Relocate to the Grand Duchy?

My attention was attracted by an advert in the FT this morning urging readers to move to the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, noting that free public transport was on offer.   Having looked at the site, however, it is clear that the people they want are young finance professionals: https://movetolux.luxembourgforfinance.com/ 

After the Brexit referendum, I did briefly consider moving to the Grand Duchy.  Not so long before I had organised a conference there with the University of Luxembourg which has developed a growing international reputation.

The conference went very well and I was told that there had been discreet help behind the scenes by the Grand Duke and Duchess who were very proud of the fact that they were the only constitutional monarchs in Europe with degrees in political science.   Some might regard that as a drawback, but I have it on good authority that the late Queen thought she would have been better prepared for her role if she had received a university education.

The Brexit referendum result showed me that my views were out of kilter with at least half the population.  However, on reflection, I felt that I should not be driven out of my own country.  Paradoxically, two of the leading supporters of Brexit on the Spectator now live in Portugal and the west coast of Ireland.

The BBC insists that it has to give a platform to Reform because if there was an election tomorrow, they would most likely form the government.  Leaving aside the fact that even Nigel Farage thinks that 2027 is the most likely election date, shouldn't they can be subjecting their programme to rigorous scrutiny rather than fawning over every utterance?

Why should I as an ageing, heterosexual, white male fear a Reform government?   I am hardly likely to be their first target and if I was walking down the street, they might think I was Gammon.   However, I don't think that mass deportations or (now) getting rid of those with permission to remain (many married to Brits) can be achieved without civil unrest.

So I will continue my search for a bolt hole.  The obvious answer might be seem to Spain where my daughter and husband, granddaughter and great-granddaughter live.   However, it would be unfair to disrupt their lives by turning up in my dotage.  More practically, I don't like hot climates, so the search continues.

Are Reform voters storming to the polls?

I have been looking at recent local by-election results to see what they say about voter intentions, but I have to admit the picture is a rather confused one: first, because of the vagaries of the first past the post system; second, because of local factors; and, third, because turnout is often low.

On the first point, the Liberal Democrats gained a seat from the Conservatives in Bournemouth with 32.4 per cent of the vote.  Reform came second on 28 per cent and I suspect they took votes from the Conservatives on 27.4 per cent.

On the second point, the New Ham Independents took a seat from Labour, although I am far from clear what they stand for.  One of the best results for Reform was in Trowbridge, which I at first thought was in Wiltshire, but is actually in Wales.   Labour are taking a beating in the polls there, although the Plaid are neck and neck with Reform in the opinion polls.

On the third point, one has to assume that Reform voters would be more motivated to turn out in a general election.

Here in the Royal Spa, Labour won the Clarendon ward yesterday, having lost there to the Lib Dems in the county council elections.   The margin was again very tight between Labour and the Lib Dems with Reform polling around 15 per cent.  In nearby Kenilworth the Greens held on to a seat with 40 per cent of the vote, Reform receiving 18 per cent. This means that the Green-Labour coalition remains in place on Warwick District Council.

Once again we have to remind ourselves that a general election is not imminent and Labour MP are unlikely to vote out their own government so that they can place their seats at risk so that Nigel Farage can be prime minister.

I think it is more likely than not that the Conservatives will have a new leader by next summer.   Replacing a Labour leader is more difficult even given the strength of the northern wind.

The BBC is now taking the line that it is platforming Reform because they are running at around 28-30 per cent in the opinion polls.  I don't recall that rule applying when the Conservatives were in office.   In any case as the Lib Dems have been at around 14/15 per cent on that basis they should get half as much coverage as Reform instead of being almost invisible.

If Reform's policies and personalities were challenged more by the BBC, ITV and Sky it is possible that voters might start to have doubts about their fitness to govern.   However, quite of the lot of the Reform vote is arguably a 'none of the above' vote.  The Tories failed after 14 years, Labour failed after 14 months (!) so why not try something different?

Having said all that, I can still visualise the nightmare of King William V having to welcome Farage as prime minister and I am continuing to consider contingency plans for leaving the country.

How is South Borsetshire's Labour MP coping?

It has been a puzzle to me why Labour MPs should bring down their own government.  Changing leader is another matter, although defenestration is far more common in the Conservative Party.

I have decided to use a fictitious composite 2024 intake Labour MP as a benchmark.   Here is the first instalment.

Guy Bland didn’t really expect to become a Labour MP or at least that was not his career strategy.  As the public affairs ‘guy’ for a medium-sized charity he thought that doing well in an unwinnable constituency would give him brownie points with an incoming Labour Government.   He might then be hired by a bigger charity or even a lobbying firm.  He and his wife, Emma Bland, who worked in religious affairs for the BBC, could then afford to start a family in London.

South Borsetshire constituency included the cathedral city of Felpersham, the market town and county town of Borchester and a number of villages such as Ambridge.   The sitting MP, Hazel Woolley, a hotelier by trade, had a majority of over 12,000.   However, her hard line Brexiteer and generally right wing stance was not particularly popular locally.   Her comment that farmers should get out from under the comfort blanket of EU subsidy payments did not go down too well..

Her main challenger appeared to be the Liberal Democrat leader on the county council, Mark Grundy.   A keen sportsman in his day he had played for both Felpersham City football team and the Borsetshire minor counties cricket team.  His slogan was ‘Mark My Words: Borsetshire born and bred.’

The Green candidate, Marjorie Antrobus, ran a local animal rescue centre that looked after all sorts of animals, but was out of favour with local cat ladies who accused her of being ‘Doggist’.   (I have heard such a charge in real life at a cats event).

Guy visited the constituency most weekends, although the predominant ly left wing constituency party gave him little encouragement, seeing him as a New Labour re-tread.    His wife was a communicant Anglican so each Sunday he accompanied her to one of the local churches.

The campaign had just started when he became aware that he might have a chance of doing better than coming a good second or third.   He had emerged from a church in Borchester after morning service when two elderly ladies strode towards him.   He feared he was about to be upbraided, but instead one of them said: ‘My sister and I have never voted Labour in our lives, but we are sick to death of this Government and we can see that you and your wife are decent Christian people.’

He had made no plans to buy a local base or establish a constituency office, but the result confirmed his concerns:

Bland, Guy Joshua (Labour and Co-op)                     19,327

Grundy, Mark (Liberal Democrat)                              15,484

Woolley, Hazel (Conservative)                                    11,225

Antrobus, Marjorie   (Green)                                         2.026

Nelson, Horatio (True Patriot)                                          517

How have things worked out for Guy?

After the count, Emma said to him ‘You will never get re-elected, however hard you work.’   Nevertheless, Guy was able to rent a spare flat from the cathedral and set up a constituency office.  He and Emma had a child.  

His first challenge was the Labour plans on inheritance tax for farmers.   He decided the best way to proceed was to work with other rural Labour MPs to get implementation delayed and modified.  Eventually the NFU realised that this was likely to have more effect than parading shiny tractors and combines in London.   Making concessions would be seen as another sign of Government weakness and the Treasury was firmly behind the proposals, but the arrival of yet another Defra secretary of state offered a glimmer of hope.

His next challenge was to find some way of defending Keir Starmer against charges of poor judgment.  He decided to keep a low profile, focusing on the summer fetes circuit.   However, his local party was firmly behind the Andy Burnham stalking horse candidate for deputy leader and this offered a new source of tension with local activists.

A general election in two years?

I have known Professor Sir John Curtice since he was a DPhil student at Oxford so when he said on Friday in a long essay on the BBC website that Reform had every chance of being the largest party after the next general election, I took it very seriously.  He is the doyen of electoral studies in this country and scrupulously non-partisan.

Nigel Farage has said that he anticipates a general election by 2026.   The Goodwin Sands expects it even sooner, and the lady journo who is a tax exile in Dubai wants it imminently.

So how might an early general election come about and what would the Conservatives do as a rump party? The usual scenario is a deepening of the fiscal crisis.

Don't expect the IMF to act as a deus ex machina.   Even in the so-called (Treasury exaggerated) crisis of 1976, they didn't ask for a general election or even a change of prime minister or chancellor, just for some changes in policy.  But as I explained in an earlier post the IMF is not what it was nor is the UK so reliant on dollars.

So apparently Labour MPs will bring down their own government.  I am still puzzling out this case of turkeys voting for an early Christmas.

Someone did suggest on X that the King (whomsoever he might be) could dissolve Parliament on his own initiative, otherwise why have a King?   Well, the monarch has to abide by the constitution (or its conventions).    However, given that members of the royal family have apparently contracted cancer as result of being vaccinated for covid, I suppose anything is possible.

BTW, I don't know what is more dangerous, platforming an arson advocate or giving credence to opponents of vaccination.   I had measles when I was seven and I was really ill, but it can be a killer for young children.

OK, but let's assume that Labour has fallen and Reform is the largest party.   What do the Conservatives do?  Here in Warwickshire they have neither supported nor opposed Reform, i.e., let them form a cabinet while saying they will judge policy case by case.

I think they hope that Reform will self destruct and it does seem that they are starting to recognise that most of the county council's funding is committed by statute (plus SEND parents and relatives of the elderly will certainly kick up a fuss if their support is restricted  even more).   Cutting out a cycle way and stopping a small spend on Net Zero doesn't allow you to reduce council tax.

Meanwhile, migrants occupy a one time Hilton hotel a couple of miles from County Hall.  I went by on the bus the other day and was shocked to see some of them out jogging.

Another possible political scenario is that the Conservatives defenestrate the hapless Badenoch and go for generic leadership.   I don't like Jenrick or his policies (he appears to be taking an even harder line that Reform on migration) but he is smart and effective and could claw back some of those on the right for the Conservatives.

BTW, I don't think that the Party With No Name/Green electoral alliance is quite as straightforward as it looks.  It could well work in major cities or those like Brighton, but it seems to me that the rural Green vote is more conservative than socialist, trying to preserve a 'heritage' countryside free of pylons, solar farms and wind towers.

Nevertheless, I am not ruling out Nigel Farage in Downing Street and I am starting to think about which other country I might live in.

Angela Rayner's plight

The row over Angela Rayner's housing arrangements is of personal interest to me as I am in the process of downsizing to a retirement apartment with my new wife.

I had thought that I could rely on the local solicitors who are doing the conveyancing to tell me how much stamp duty I owe (incidentally a transaction tax that doesn't encourage freeing up larger houses).

But now it appears that I can't rely on them giving me the right figure and I might have to engage learned counsel which will involve expense and delay.

Otherwise I might find myself subject to a surcharge.   On the other hand, I don't suppose I'll be vilified in the local paper or have 'tax evader' scrawled outside my house.

The stamp duty regulations are more complex than they first appear and Angela Rayner has been foolish given that she knows there are people waiting to get her.

However, I really don't understand the apparently widely held view that the country is best run by people who have gone to Eton (Johnson) or another fee-paying school (Farage).   Over 90 per cent of us went to state education.

Angela Rayner clearly annoys some people because she is a woman from a council estate who left school at 16 and became deputy prime minister.   Her presence in government balances the less performative persona of Starmer.

So if she goes it will be a win for the Conservatives (and weasel Chris Mason with his lose-lose scenario). I'm not sure it will keep Badenoch in post to the next election, though.

Trying to build a prime ministerial department

There is no doubt that the relationship between the Prime Minister and the Chancellor is the most crucial ministerial one in government.   Even when it starts well it often goes wrong - think Thatcher and Lawson. Another possibility is that the prime minister cedes authority over economic policy to the Chancellor and the Treasury, essentially the deal between Blair and Brown.   Something similar has happened with Starmer and Reeves.

It hasn't turned out that well, although my interpretation is not that Starmer is too weak to sack Reeves.  She is not that popular with the public, the Parliamentary party or party activists.

In many respects she has succumbed to Treasury orthodoxy - not that that is always a bad thing, someone has to ask awkward questions about ever rising public expenditure.   However, cutting the winter fuel allowance made fiscal sense but was bad politics.

It seems to me that what Starmer is doing is making a belated attempt to build prime ministerial capacity. Staffing at the centre of government is relatively limited compared with other countries, e.g., the German Chancellery.   Part of the problem is that No.10 and No.11 (effectively the same building) are so cramped.  You can put people in the Cabinet Office, but then they are one remove away from the decision makers. 

And don't get me started on the inadequacies of the Palace of Westminster!   Actually it would be a good idea to move the Commons, the Prime Minister and the key departments out of London and further north, but that will never happen.

Darren Jones is clearly one of the smarter government ministers and if anyone can help Starmer to get more of a grip on things, he will.   Meanwhile the autumn budget becomes more of a defining event.  The unprecedented amount of kite flying has actually harmed the real economy because every leaked suggestion is being treated as a concrete proposal.