A general election in two years?

I have known Professor Sir John Curtice since he was a DPhil student at Oxford so when he said on Friday in a long essay on the BBC website that Reform had every chance of being the largest party after the next general election, I took it very seriously.  He is the doyen of electoral studies in this country and scrupulously non-partisan.

Nigel Farage has said that he anticipates a general election by 2026.   The Goodwin Sands expects it even sooner, and the lady journo who is a tax exile in Dubai wants it imminently.

So how might an early general election come about and what would the Conservatives do as a rump party? The usual scenario is a deepening of the fiscal crisis.

Don't expect the IMF to act as a deus ex machina.   Even in the so-called (Treasury exaggerated) crisis of 1976, they didn't ask for a general election or even a change of prime minister or chancellor, just for some changes in policy.  But as I explained in an earlier post the IMF is not what it was nor is the UK so reliant on dollars.

So apparently Labour MPs will bring down their own government.  I am still puzzling out this case of turkeys voting for an early Christmas.

Someone did suggest on X that the King (whomsoever he might be) could dissolve Parliament on his own initiative, otherwise why have a King?   Well, the monarch has to abide by the constitution (or its conventions).    However, given that members of the royal family have apparently contracted cancer as result of being vaccinated for covid, I suppose anything is possible.

BTW, I don't know what is more dangerous, platforming an arson advocate or giving credence to opponents of vaccination.   I had measles when I was seven and I was really ill, but it can be a killer for young children.

OK, but let's assume that Labour has fallen and Reform is the largest party.   What do the Conservatives do?  Here in Warwickshire they have neither supported nor opposed Reform, i.e., let them form a cabinet while saying they will judge policy case by case.

I think they hope that Reform will self destruct and it does seem that they are starting to recognise that most of the county council's funding is committed by statute (plus SEND parents and relatives of the elderly will certainly kick up a fuss if their support is restricted  even more).   Cutting out a cycle way and stopping a small spend on Net Zero doesn't allow you to reduce council tax.

Meanwhile, migrants occupy a one time Hilton hotel a couple of miles from County Hall.  I went by on the bus the other day and was shocked to see some of them out jogging.

Another possible political scenario is that the Conservatives defenestrate the hapless Badenoch and go for generic leadership.   I don't like Jenrick or his policies (he appears to be taking an even harder line that Reform on migration) but he is smart and effective and could claw back some of those on the right for the Conservatives.

BTW, I don't think that the Party With No Name/Green electoral alliance is quite as straightforward as it looks.  It could well work in major cities or those like Brighton, but it seems to me that the rural Green vote is more conservative than socialist, trying to preserve a 'heritage' countryside free of pylons, solar farms and wind towers.

Nevertheless, I am not ruling out Nigel Farage in Downing Street and I am starting to think about which other country I might live in.