Hail the King of the North!

All the available evidence suggests that Andy Burnham is likely to win the Makerfield by-election tomorrow, although turnout could well be low.

The most likely scenario is that cabinet ministers will press Keir Starmer to stand down by September.  The absence of a contest means that Burnham's rather vague policy ideas will not be tested.

It's a big step up from being a city mayor to running a country as Boris found.  Much of the groundwork for the economic success of Manchester was laid by Burnham's predecessors.

Yes, he did sort the buses out, but his clean air and homelessness policies were less successful.

It's been difficult to make sense of his statements during the by-election, but he does not seem to understand the fiscal rules.   One moment he was promising to recompense the 'waspy women' then he realised that there was a £10 billion bill attached.

Professor Ford reckons that he is offering spendthrift vibes, but his policies will be much more cautious. However, voters will then soon be disappointed.

I would concede that Burnham is emotionally intelligent and voters are more inclined to see him as someone 'like us'.  The difficulty is that dealing with complex international issues and running a country is more demanding than being a bloke you would like to chat to over a pint.  If I was Burnham, I would offer to make Starmer foreign secretary for which there are two precedents.

The Spectator was saying last week what a wonderful leader Kemi Badenoch is, so why is an apparently decent Conservative candidate in Makerfield going to get a one to two per cent vote.   The Conervatives could, however, do quite well in Aberdeen South so their focus will be there.

Should I be ashamed of my cabal membership?

For the first time in my life, it has been said that I am a member of a cabal.   I had to look up what it meant and the (AI) definition is not very pleasant: 'A "cabal" is a small, secret group of people who conspire to promote their private interests or gain political power. The term carries negative connotations of intrigue, conspiracy, and exclusive plotting.'

The charge was made in the Financial Times by political scientist Philip Cowley in relation to all members of the Labour Party and their potential role in choosing the next prime minister.

To be fair to Philip, he was making a direct comparison with the similarly elderly and unaccountable Conservative Party membership which chose Liz Truss.   His most interesting point was about the 17 per cent or so of trade union members who pay the political levy and hence also get a vote.  No one knows very much about them, although my hunch would be that they lean left.

Philip didn't say how party leaders should be elected.  The Financial Times published my riposte in which I suggested that perhaps we should go back to the days when the chief whip called in cabinet ministers and asked 'Is it Wab or Hawold?'

On further reflection there is a case for reverting to election by MPs holding the party whip.  They know the candidates and they have to sustain the new leader in the Commons.  There could still be a poll of party members but it would be advisory, avoiding the risks of zealocracy or rule by activists.

Reform voters analysed

An important new study of Reform has been carried out under the supervision of electoral studies guru Sir John Curtice: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/02/reform-uk-support-could-plateau-relies-on-conservative-views-study-finds

After listening to Sir John on Radio 5 this morning, my take home message is slightly different from that of The Guardian.  Yes, as we long suspected, there is a glass ceiling to Reform support, but it may be at a level which could make them the largest party in the Commons which would enable them to conclude a confidence and supply agreement with the Tory rump and the Democratic Unionists.  I have seen 'Conform' at work in Warwickshire.

A key point made by Sir John was that at a time when voters have become increasingly disengaged from parties, a high proportion of Reform voters say they are 'very strong' supporters.  In other words, there is hard core of support.